| ▲ | throwaway27448 6 hours ago |
| It's not just our young—that just receives disproportionate attention. The entire country is being actively looted under the guise of "economic growth". Anyway, increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity, but the Ezra Klein dunces aren't ready for that conversation yet. |
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| ▲ | adgjlsfhk1 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| The biggest problem that increasing housing supply can solve is the gap between minimum and median apartment price. In places with very constrained housing markets the cheapest slumlord apartments are very expensive (~70-80%) compared to the price of well maintained apartments. Increasing housing supply doesn't do much to the median housing price (since new houses are expensive), but it lets the price of shitty apartments drop a ton. |
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| ▲ | bombcar 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This is the problem - not that a brand new McMansion is going for 3,000 square and $900k - it's that the 750 crackshack is going for $500k. | |
| ▲ | epistasis 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Building adequate housing also brings down the medium cost, by a lot. At worst, it prevents the median house from rising in price. Prices are set through a combination of supply-demand and cost of providing housing. Almost all increase in housing costs are coming from land price increase, due to land shortage from planning policies that limit land use density. Housing has been made into an investment first, and a home second, by creating housing austerity and shortage. The only way to prevent housing from being an investment is to stop the artificial shortage of housing. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I lost money on the houses I've bought. This is because I factor in the cost of the mortgage, property taxes, real estate commissions, maintenance, insurance, etc. Houses are lousy investments. | | |
| ▲ | epistasis 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Are you factoring in the value of a living space in this calculation, the rent that the house generates? When you live in your own house, it's called "implicit rent" but when you actually rent it out at market rates it's just called "rent." There are a few housing markets where what you say will be true, but it's not true of most of the US by any means. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 3 minutes ago | parent [-] | | No, I did not factor in implicit rent, I was looking at from the point of view of it being an investment. Renting a place out has other costs. Tenant damage, tenants who don't pay rent, tenants who sue you (and landlords always lose), lawyer expenses, time when it sits vacant, vandalism, advertising, having to deal with the tenants, etc. |
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| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | danny_codes 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You might want to revisit your analysis under more standard accounting guidance. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright an hour ago | parent [-] | | I also neglected to mention the cost of the house sitting there for months vacant waiting for buyer. I'd always price mine slightly under the market to get them sold. As for accounting guidance, just what are you driving at? Are those expenses I listed not real? They certainly took real money out of my account! |
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| ▲ | forgetfreeman 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You may be the worst real estate investor I've ever heard of. If housing was actually a lousy investment Blackrock and Berkshire Hathaway wouldn't have real estate holdings and they're both in the residential market in a big way. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > You may be the worst real estate investor I've ever heard of. You may very well be right. However, everyone I hear saying how much money they made off of their house neglects to mention any of the expenses I listed. | |
| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | simonw 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity Why not? (I guess I'm a "dunce", but I'm one that's ready for that conversation) |
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| ▲ | majormajor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Being charitable here (though... when called a "dunce" it's hard sometimes to want to be charitable), the statement would be perfectly correct if slightly reworded to: "increasing supply isn't going to solve many of our problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity" It would just help with some of them. But that's a statement that's obvious on the face of it - cheaper housing costs buy time if you lose your job, and makes it easier to have a bigger emergency fund, but it isn't an infinite reprieve. So. The charitable interpretation still hits a wall because that would be acknowledging that supply would help with some of them, and the "dunces" nonsense suggest that they wouldn't agree even with that. (In some states in particular, though, home ownership is uniquely protected in ways that would help fight homelessness, so increasing supply and incentivizing selling-to-an-owner vs being a landlord could be very helpful too.) | | | |
| ▲ | smallmancontrov 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Abundance only solves scarcity if scarcity is the problem, but the actual problem is economic exclusion, which will always be able to outpace abundance because abundance has physical limits while exclusion does not. | | |
| ▲ | epistasis 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Scarcity of housing is a severe problem, one that has caused the economic exclusion by preventing new people from entering the locations with lots of jobs. It really is housing and scarcity at the bottom of all the other symptoms we see. |
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| ▲ | wnc3141 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There are extractive and inclusive economic institutions. democracies tend to guarantee the latter, we are rapidly pursuing the former. |
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| ▲ | ambicapter 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don’t know about that, I feel like one of the issues when one person-one vote democracies is that it means the greater population demographic (aka the Boomers) hold a relatively higher proportion of the vote and thus can majority rule everyone else. | | |
| ▲ | forgetfreeman 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The mistake you're making here is in the assumption that voters have any meaningful input on policy. Given the overwhelming majority of policy at both the state and federal level is drafted by lobbyists this assumption seems questionable at best. |
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| ▲ | paulddraper 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices. That’s so obvious it’s nearly a truism. Rate of new houses is below the rate of new households, and it’s been that way for years. |
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| ▲ | jjav 10 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices. > That’s so obvious it’s nearly a truism. And that is why Manhattan, due to having the most housing units per square mile, is one of the cheapest places to live in the US. Since it's not, it is not a truism that merely increasing the housing supply will decrease prices. It takes more than that. As long as you have excess people willing and able to buy $1M studios, every new studio will get snapped up. Prices can only begin to drop if you build so many that you exhaust the supply of people willing to pay $1M and the highest bid left is $900K. Think of it as analogous to bond issuances. Just because the government issues more and more bonds the price won't drop as long as there are buyers to clear the price. Bond price only drops when they run dry of buyers at the higher price and must start accepting lower offers. | |
| ▲ | forgetfreeman 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | "Increasing housing supply will absolutely decrease housing prices." True if it's the government building the houses, otherwise you hit a point where construction margins tank well before market saturation is reached. In practice new housing developments have a tendency to drag local real estate prices up (see also: gentrification). | | |
| ▲ | laughing_man 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That may be true in a very local area, but if you build something really nice in an area that wasn't very nice, the units that used to be mid are now near the bottom and have to lower their prices. | |
| ▲ | epistasis 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > In practice new housing developments have a tendency to drag local real estate prices up (see also: gentrification). This is absolutely false, not true, disproven, and made up. Social housing builders are good for many reasons, 1) they provide competition to the public market, and when efficient don't need to return profit to shareholders so provide a very good competitor in places like Finland and Singapore, 2) social housing builders smooth out the business cycle, because new housing is needed just as much when at the downturn of the business cycle as at the top, so it greatly helps provide stable employment and a stable workforce for housing construction, greatly improving housing. But the idea that new idea drives up housing prices in any way is, at best, a fiction. It's mostly a lie from landlords and homeowners to try to justify their continued extraction of profits from their idleness. | |
| ▲ | paulddraper 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You’re saying that prices are bounded by construction costs. Sure, as with every other good. But there’s a long way to go between current property prices and raw construction costs. |
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| ▲ | azan_ 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Isn't basically every decile getting richer (i.e. able to afford more things) thanks to economic growth? |
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| ▲ | materielle 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | What if I don’t care about affording more things? And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education? | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's perfectly legal for you and like-minded people to set up a commune, and create the society you want. Or join an existing one. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 44 minutes ago | parent [-] | | BTW, the best I can figure is the average commune member quits after about 2 years, cured of the notion that communism is for them. |
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| ▲ | nostrebored 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | i think the reason for your deluge of downvotes is that a society the promotes more things becoming affordable is one that prioritizes stability. universal access to housing, healthcare, and education that people want is only possible in a society that is immensely productive. | | | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Welcome to the forever dissapointed club. The society you desire can’t exist unfortunately as much as I’ve thought it could and worked for it |
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| ▲ | SecretDreams 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | No. It's a k-type curve where the high deciles are getting higher and the lows are getting lower, so to speak. There is increasingly becoming more of a divide between haves and have nots, and it has a temporal component because of how equity has appreciated over the last decade or so. Both housing and stocks. People from a decade ago have seen absolutely unsustainable appreciation in their assets while doing nothing. That is putting them at structural advantages against younger generations that will not see those same appreciations. It's like the bus has left without them. No matter how hard and fast they run, someone asleep on the bus will always be ahead of them. | | |
| ▲ | laughing_man 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That's not true. The highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher as well. | |
| ▲ | dmm 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > It's a k-type curve where the high deciles are getting higher and the lows are getting lower The lowest quartile of income have had the highest growth the past four years. | | |
| ▲ | mcmcmc 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | [flagged] | | |
| ▲ | dmm 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | He didn't post a source either. Go look at the Atlanta Fed's wage growth data if you're actually interested. |
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| ▲ | SlightlyLeftPad 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Looking back in human history, what was the ultimate outcome for similar economic conditions? | | |
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| ▲ | WarmWash 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I guess I'll be the one to point out that the richest American demographic is the 50-95%. And the ~75-85% are the actual backbone of the economy, with their relentless spending. If there is a reckoning, the most pain will be the demographic here on HN, living in the suburbs. Not the billionaires living in the Hamptons or Napa. The fuel of this fire is white collar high earners. Its also why not much is probably going to change, because these people also vote a lot. It's not billionaires and Black Rock driving up home prices, that's for sure... |
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| ▲ | epistasis 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. It creates austerity which means the wealthy do just fine while those with less suffer and overpay and transfer what little they do have to the wealthy. Degrowth is a fundamentally unequal program which causes massive inequality and suffering. Only with growth does power lessen for those with the most. |
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| ▲ | majormajor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. What is this supposed to be implying and how do you square it with the massive amount of money being poured into "disruption" and VC investment, etc, in the US? Where is degrowth being practiced at scale, and how has that caused more of a divergence between the wealthy and the rest than the opposite pro-economic-growth, pro-efficiency policies that brought us Walmart, Amazon, etc and happily shit-canned all the displaced workers from the less-efficient-but-more-evenly-distributed businesses they replaced? | | |
| ▲ | majormajor 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | A bit more specifics, to follow up: GDP growth rate, for instance, in the US doesn't have a significant inflection point around Reaganomics and its increases in deficit spending + "pro-growth" lowering of tax rates on the wealthy. We've never really gone away from that philosophy despite not seeing increases in growth + seeing a LOT of increases in inequality and the elites thriving while everyone else gets squeezed. Perhaps "growth" is driven primarily by cultural and technological factors (especially the latter!) and inequality is driven primarily by whether or not a population has the balls to say "even if economies of scale suggest that wealth will concentrate in big mega-players, we want to fight that"? And the US had the will to do that 90 years ago, but was successfully brainwashed into giving up on it *despite the 50s in particular being still seen even by those on the right as a "golden age" of both growth and "everyman" quality of life? If the PC revolution had started seven years earlier and the Iranian revolution had occurred seven years later how would our views of Carter vs Reagan (or some other Republican in 1984 instead) change? But which of those things did they actually cause personally? |
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| ▲ | WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. Inequality is the result of allowing economic growth, i.e. freedom. | |
| ▲ | folkrav 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Growth only lessens their power if it benefits those without, which, even by the most optimistic takes, hasn't really happened since at least the 80s. | |
| ▲ | xboxnolifes 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't see aversion to growth. I see aversion to filling to pockets of the top 0.1% at the expense of the bottom 90%. A rising tide raising all ships sounds great and all, until you notice the tide seems to only be rising on one side. | | |
| ▲ | epistasis 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I see people who are comfortable and prioritize their needs, and ignore those with less, as if they don't matter and don't affect them. They cover up this disdain for those with less by trying to focus on the 0.1%, but stopping that apartment building doesn't stop the 0.1% from making money, they just invest in something else, so any concern about trying to stop the 0.1% is clearly fake. | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Whose pockets did Musk loot in order to amass $1 trillion? |
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| ▲ | cucumber3732842 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. People say that right up until someone wants to do something and then it's all "not in my back yard" and "won't somebody think of Alex Jones and his gay frogs" or whatever their line is. I'd say nobody is willing to put their money where their mouth is but it's not money. They'd made more money with growth. It's speculative bullshit "what ifs" that could be mopped up easily if they happened. The problem is people's beliefs, ideology, religion, whatever you want to call it. | | |
| ▲ | epistasis 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think the direction goes the other way, people are NIMBYs so they come up with reasons to justify why it's OK to block other people from living close to them. The idea "oh but a richer person than me benefits" becomes the reason for blocking housing, eliding the fact that a poorer person benefits, the true thing the NIMBYs try to prevent. At least, that's true in my area. People that already have housing, are comfortable, start to rail against all this economic growth and say that we should block all change to buildings to prevent it. Anybody who is actually serious about providing more opportunity to those with less realized that we need more housing, where the jobs are. It's the homeowners and well-established that pursue degrowth and austerity. | | |
| ▲ | trimethylpurine 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | When they build apartments to increase the density the prices don't go down on the dense units. The builder sets the price and he is his own competition because an appraisal requires just 3 comps. He has 250 comps in his pocket because he built and set their price. The only thing it does to be anti "NIMBY" is aid in unchecked price hikes on "low cost" high density housing that none of us can afford. |
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