| ▲ | epistasis an hour ago |
| The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security for older people by taking away opportunity for younger people. |
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| ▲ | throwaway27448 an hour ago | parent | next [-] |
| It's not just our young—that just receives disproportionate attention. The entire country is being actively looted under the guise of "economic growth". Anyway, increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity, but the Ezra Klein dunces aren't ready for that conversation yet. |
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| ▲ | adgjlsfhk1 24 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The biggest problem that increasing housing supply can solve is the gap between minimum and median apartment price. In places with very constrained housing markets the cheapest slumlord apartments are very expensive (~70-80%) compared to the price of well maintained apartments. Increasing housing supply doesn't do much to the median housing price (since new houses are expensive), but it lets the price of shitty apartments drop a ton. | | |
| ▲ | bombcar 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | This is the problem - not that a brand new McMansion is going for 3,000 square and $900k - it's that the 750 crackshack is going for $500k. |
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| ▲ | simonw an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity Why not? (I guess I'm a "dunce", but I'm one that's ready for that conversation) | | |
| ▲ | majormajor 40 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Being charitable here (though... when called a "dunce" it's hard sometimes to want to be charitable), the statement would be perfectly correct if slightly reworded to: "increasing supply isn't going to solve many of our problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity" It would just help with some of them. But that's a statement that's obvious on the face of it - cheaper housing costs buy time if you lose your job, and makes it easier to have a bigger emergency fund, but it isn't an infinite reprieve. So. The charitable interpretation still hits a wall because that would be acknowledging that supply would help with some of them, and the "dunces" nonsense suggest that they wouldn't agree even with that. (In some states in particular, though, home ownership is uniquely protected in ways that would help fight homelessness, so increasing supply and incentivizing selling-to-an-owner vs being a landlord could be very helpful too.) |
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| ▲ | WarmWash 9 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I guess I'll be the one to point out that the richest American demographic is the 50-95%. And the ~75-85% are the actual backbone of the economy, with their relentless spending. If there is a reckoning, the most pain will be the demographic here on HN, living in the suburbs. Not the billionaires living in the Hamptons or Napa. The fuel of this fire is white collar high earners. Its also why not much is probably going to change, because these people also vote a lot. It's not billionaires and Black Rock driving up home prices, that's for sure... | |
| ▲ | azan_ an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Isn't basically every decile getting richer (i.e. able to afford more things) thanks to economic growth? | | |
| ▲ | materielle 32 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | What if I don’t care about affording more things? And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education? | |
| ▲ | SecretDreams 23 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | No. It's a k-type curve where the high deciles are getting higher and the lows are getting lower, so to speak. There is increasingly becoming more of a divide between haves and have nots, and it has a temporal component because of how equity has appreciated over the last decade or so. Both housing and stocks. People from a decade ago have seen absolutely unsustainable appreciation in their assets while doing nothing. That is putting them at structural advantages against younger generations that will not see those same appreciations. It's like the bus has left without them. No matter how hard and fast they run, someone asleep on the bus will always be ahead of them. |
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| ▲ | epistasis an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. It creates austerity which means the wealthy do just fine while those with less suffer and overpay and transfer what little they do have to the wealthy. Degrowth is a fundamentally unequal program which causes massive inequality and suffering. Only with growth does power lessen for those with the most. | | |
| ▲ | majormajor an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. What is this supposed to be implying and how do you square it with the massive amount of money being poured into "disruption" and VC investment, etc, in the US? Where is degrowth being practiced at scale, and how has that caused more of a divergence between the wealthy and the rest than the opposite pro-economic-growth, pro-efficiency policies that brought us Walmart, Amazon, etc and happily shit-canned all the displaced workers from the less-efficient-but-more-evenly-distributed businesses they replaced? | | |
| ▲ | majormajor an hour ago | parent [-] | | A bit more specifics, to follow up: GDP growth rate, for instance, in the US doesn't have a significant inflection point around Reaganomics and its increases in deficit spending + "pro-growth" lowering of tax rates on the wealthy. We've never really gone away from that philosophy despite not seeing increases in growth + seeing a LOT of increases in inequality and the elites thriving while everyone else gets squeezed. Perhaps "growth" is driven primarily by cultural and technological factors (especially the latter!) and inequality is driven primarily by whether or not a population has the balls to say "even if economies of scale suggest that wealth will concentrate in big mega-players, we want to fight that"? And the US had the will to do that 90 years ago, but was successfully brainwashed into giving up on it *despite the 50s in particular being still seen even by those on the right as a "golden age" of both growth and "everyman" quality of life? If the PC revolution had started seven years earlier and the Iranian revolution had occurred seven years later how would our views of Carter vs Reagan (or some other Republican in 1984 instead) change? But which of those things did they actually cause personally? |
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| ▲ | folkrav 24 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Growth only lessens their power if it benefits those without, which, even by the most optimistic takes, hasn't really happened since at least the 80s. | |
| ▲ | xboxnolifes 43 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't see aversion to growth. I see aversion to filling to pockets of the top 0.1% at the expense of the bottom 90%. A rising tide raising all ships sounds great and all, until you notice the tide seems to only be rising on one side. | |
| ▲ | cucumber3732842 44 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | >I would say aversion to allowing economic growth is the true cause of inequality. People say that right up until someone wants to do something and then it's all "not in my back yard" and "won't somebody think of Alex Jones and his gay frogs" or whatever their line is. I'd say nobody is willing to put their money where their mouth is but it's not money. They'd made more money with growth. It's speculative bullshit "what ifs" that could be mopped up easily if they happened. The problem is people's beliefs, ideology, religion, whatever you want to call it. |
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| ▲ | lizknope an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Everywhere I look in my area we are building new housing. But more people keep moving to the desirable locations with jobs etc. EDIT: I live in one of the 10 fastest growing metro areas of the US. In the last 4 years my county added over 60,000 homes but about 130,000 new people moved here. I drive around and see new development after new development. But more people move here because of the good jobs, schools, etc. I can drive 2 hours away to some economically depressed areas. Houses are a lot cheaper because the population moves away to the bigger cities for jobs, education, etc. So sure you can have a cheap house in an undesirable location. |
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| ▲ | epistasis an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | There's a huge disconnect between perceived amount of building and actual need for housing, in my experience. People are used to seeing nothing, so when even a single building goes up they think it seems like a lot. In my downtown area, there has been a trickle of a new building with a few hundred apartments per year for the past four years, and people are freaked out at that tiny amount of new housing in a city of 50,000 people. in reality we need at least double that amount of housing per year, but that small amount has people shocked and thinking we're building way too much. It's been far too normalized that we shouldn't build housing, and it's hurting society at a very deep level and causing massive inequality while blocking access to opportunity. | | |
| ▲ | majormajor 35 minutes ago | parent [-] | | This is also the cause of the gentrification anger and resulting NIMBYism. If you build some, but not enough vs what's actually needed, you get both: - expensive new market-rate construction that most people can't afford - localized bumps in rent for increased relative desirability - overall prices that continue to rise across the city because the new construction was just a drop in the bucket compared to the need And then it's easy to point to "they built that building AND our rent went up!" as a reason to oppose construction, even though in the long run they'd go up even more if that building wasn't built. |
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| ▲ | jvanderbot an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "We" in GP was the previous generation, not a nefarious evil cadre. The prior generations followed jobs to highly desireable areas, affordable only because they had the expertise and education to get the high paying job in the first place. Every person that moves there lifts the ladder a little higher behind them just due to market factors. I feel that only works so long. Without new emerging areas offering high wages and decent cost of living, the new grads look at the old areas like SF (no hate just e.g.) and see a financial bridge too far and a tight job market anyway. | | |
| ▲ | epistasis an hour ago | parent [-] | | The only reason SF seems inaccessible is that the prior generation down zoned and said "no more housing here, we don't want growth." Which worked out well for them but robs young people and immigrants of climbing the same ladder they climbed. Building new clusters of expertise and economic opportunity is extremely hard, nearly impossible, everybody has been trying to replicate the Bay Area's tech success for decades and even with the housing problems it simply hasn't happened anywhere else. It's far easier to remove the law on the books banning housing than it is to build an ecosystem of any economy from scratch in a new area. We don't need any new cities, we need to allow existing areas to grow. If every city blocks housing, then even that new area is going to be blocked from growing as it grows. We must stop everybody in their tracks that thinks it says "I don't want new housing or neighbors near me" because that is the literally robbing of our young people and of society of opportunity. | | |
| ▲ | majormajor 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > The only reason SF seems inaccessible is that the prior generation down zoned and said "no more housing here, we don't want growth." Which worked out well for them but robs young people and immigrants of climbing the same ladder they climbed. I'd add more nuance here, SF and many of the surrounding areas said we don't want population growth but they didn't say they didn't want economic growth. And that's a nasty combination for cost-of-living because if you have new higher-grossing, higher-paying businesses displace older ones, you're going to see a crapload of residential displacement and housing inflation. SF didn't want to be Manhattan residentially, but they didn't do much to try to avoid being Manhattan industrially. People who rented in SF got screwed because of that. People who owned property didn't. They made out wonderfully. They kept their property, with the existing characteristics in many places so that they still had a nice big SFH instead of living in a condo like in Manhattan. And the fact that it's worth ten times as much is hardly a downside to them! Sure, that plot of land would be worth even more if you could build a giant tower on it, but that increase in value is much less marginally useful or desirable to them than their home and neighborhood staying more or less the same shape. If you want to change that, you have to be really specific about the incentives and the motivations of the current players. "Economic growth" as a sales-pitch alone doesn't resonate against entrenched non-financial NIMBY interests. Or necessarily promise anything to change the property-owner-vs-renter power imbalance. | |
| ▲ | cucumber3732842 28 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | The problem (edit: "a problem") is that this down zoning is basically state and federally enforced. Temecula would happily grow but they can't just repeal their laws and say "go for it" because in order to get their citizens tax money back in the form of grant money (with strings of course, because that's how grants work) they have to have these laws because these "we will mandate parking, and then we will create beurocratic hell for anyone who wants to pave anything" in order to check some sort of "municipalities shall implement..." type law. And it's not just the clean this or that act, it's every goddamn issue and area of regulation. So basically SF not only gets to eat its cake, but it gets to prevent every other city in the state from doing something drastically different from what they're doing. And you can run this example in any state, just change the cities. And it happens federally too. | | |
| ▲ | majormajor 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Temecula would happily grow but they can't just repeal their laws and say "go for it" because in order to get their citizens tax money back in the form of grant money (with strings of course, because that's how grants work) they have to have these laws because these "we will mandate parking, and then we will create beurocratic hell for anyone who wants to pave anything" in order to check some sort of "municipalities shall implement..." type law. > And it's not just the clean this or that act, it's every goddamn issue and area of regulation. > So basically SF not only gets to eat its cake, but it gets to prevent every other city in the state from doing something drastically different from what they're doing. > And you can run this example in any state, just change the cities. And it happens federally too. I don't think you can run this example in any state. Maybe Mansfield, TX; or Waxahachie, TX (both south of the DFW metroplex) would love to grow. And there's not much stopping them regulatory-wise there. Yeah, car infrastructure and parking is necessary, but that's literally true everywhere within a few hundreds of miles, and isn't really restricted at the state level or by geography anywhere in the area, including the places like Frisco or The Colony on the north side of the Metroplex that have grown like crazy in the last 30 years. But the Metroplex "proper" - which now includes the popular new surrounding cities - has gotten a lot more expensive over the same time frame. There's a demand aspect that means some places can build into the growth, and others can't. What's the old saw? Location, location, location. There's all the land in the world to grow outwardly in the area, but it doesn't happen uniformly in every direction, and it hasn't prevented rising costs in the popular areas. It's less acute than SF because the raging single-family-zoning NIMBYism isn't accompanied by being landlocked, but the combo of NIMBYism + popularity/demand constraining where new construction happens mean that supply hasn't kept up with demand. And the money you'd save by living somewhere else, for many, doesn't justify giving up the location they want, so those other areas don't have a strong economic case for growth (why invest in a project there instead of a project on the north side?). (THAT part is universal, and part of why I wonder just how much Temecula would actually want to grow: would growth just look like Riverside or San Bernadino? Folks with means aren't choosing the inland locations first... and unlike in TX, the weather is enormously different.) | | |
| ▲ | bombcar 9 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Maybe Mansfield, TX; or Waxahachie, TX (both south of the DFW metroplex) would love to grow. And there's not much stopping them regulatory-wise there. Yeah, car infrastructure and parking is necessary, but that's literally true everywhere within a few hundreds of miles, and isn't really restricted at the state level or by geography anywhere in the area, including the places like Frisco or The Colony on the north side of the Metroplex that have grown like crazy in the last 30 years. I still think the solution involves rapid transit (which could be cars maybe) - you need the outlying towns where there is space and room to be directly connected to the economic centers in a way that makes them practical. Then the area that is low density can grow - connected to the city center but not contributing significantly to vehicle traffic. |
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| ▲ | hdgvhicv an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | So there’s tons of empty housing? Why are people building new housing then, is it just that much better quality that the empty housing is the old crap? | | |
| ▲ | ironman1478 an hour ago | parent [-] | | All the empty housing is not near where jobs are, you could make the houses dirt cheap and if there are few jobs then they're actually relatively expensive to the population. Also, yes lots of housing has unbelievably expensive deferred maintenance and many sellers are trying to act like their homes aren't huge money pits. |
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| ▲ | peab an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah.. In Texas, there is loads of housing, and loads of affordable housing. In Canada - not so much |
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| ▲ | bluedino 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| We've spend the last fifty years shipping every job and industry overseas. What did we expect to happen? |
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| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 43 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| We build new housing, but it just isn’t keeping up with demand in those few hot cities where young people want to live. Yes, Toledo and Buffalo (in the USA) have cheap housing to get, but those aren’t where people want to live. |
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| ▲ | bombcar 6 minutes ago | parent [-] | | This is a big part of the problem; in the past when you had these situations the "kids" would move to new cities where new activities were happening and build them up (hell, Silicon Valley is basically an example of this). That seems to have dried up, nobody is building massive employment centers far from the existing major cities. |
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| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | SecretDreams 27 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Couldn't agree more. Completely aligned. Quote I refer to for this: "We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children." |
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| ▲ | sleepyguy 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Perhaps they should vote, unfortunately they don't. They are unreliable as a base so politicians ignore them and their needs. |
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| ▲ | jazz9k 43 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] |
| College graduates have been saddled with debt for a few decades now. Universities know that most of the student base gets a federal loan and once the money changes hands, don't care if it can ever get paid back. This has led to administration bloat and majors that are completely useless when you graduate. Federal loans should be eliminated and universities should back the loans themselves. |
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| ▲ | jonhohle 35 minutes ago | parent [-] | | That would unfairly couple the success of their students with their own success /sarc. The government has a history of inflating anything they offer cheap money for. Housing, healthcare, education. In our area parents can get several thousand for opting out of public school. That can be used to offset private school tuition. What happened? Private school tuition rose by about the amount the government was giving. It’s no more affordable, the government is on the hook for money, and the private schools have less incentive to compete since they got a 50% bump for doing nothing. Any time the government offers handouts fraud, waste, and inflation will follow. |
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