My bet is that the prices will crash once OpenAI (and/or Antrophic) IPO's have happened.

Right now the biggest threat to their IPO's is that people realize that local models are good enough for whatever they're peddling, what's the most important factor to even running good enough models? RAM since you want the models in memory to not be total slogs.

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elAhmo 42 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

You are saying there will be even more demand for RAM and that will cause the prices to crash?

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fleventynine 40 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If local models are good enough, doesn't that increase demand for DRAM as everyone buys DRAM for their poorly utilized local machines?

Surely it is a more efficient use of DRAM to run inference on shared hardware with large batch sizes and more utilization.

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Hamuko an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

My bet is that we're not gonna see any adjustments in RAM pricing until one of the planned data center projects collapses in a spectacular way.

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rvnx an hour ago | parent | next [-]

One theory: they will need to throw away all these Nvidia cards in the trash at some point right ?

Because what to do with power-consuming outdated hardware ? let's say 5 years from now ?

They will need new RAM.

I wonder.

	▲	ElFitz 11 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		I’d gladly take a few of these self-contained rack-clusters off their hands when they do. I’d even get a house with a garage or something just for that.

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sixothree an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

And honestly, we will have much bigger problems if that bubble pops in a spectacular fashion.

	▲	KeplerBoy 24 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Which problems would that be? Nasdaq crashing by a few percent and a major player to go under. Seems almost inevitable at some point.

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varispeed an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> that local models are good enough for whatever they're peddling

they are not. Unless you are satisfied with plausible, but mostly garbage output.

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cogman10 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

They are actually quite a bit better than you might think. Qwen3.6 27B is pretty capable at coding.

For non-coding work, they are more than good enough. A lot of the ways my non-technical family members have interacted with AI would be perfectly served by using a local model.

After all, people were more than satisfied with the results from GPT 3. That has long since been surpassed by open weight models.

	▲	Matticus_Rex 11 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		I'm sure there are things local models are good enough at in non-coding work, but for anything complex I do not find this to be the case. I'd say local models are fairly capable of even somewhat complex coding execution. For complex non-coding work (research, in-depth analysis, assembly of complex info-dense documents) I'd rather do it by hand than switch from Opus 4.7 to anything I could even theoretically run locally.

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chadgpt3 5 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

isn't that literally all output an LLM generates?

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throw1234567891 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I get results comparable to the saas. Maybe Anthropic sold you too much crack tokens.

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fluoridation an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Honestly, that's the output I get from non-local models, anyway. If I'm going to get plausible nonsense either way, I may as well run it on my own hardware.

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throwaway613746 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

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