> Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.

It depends on what you mean by "beans". The Palouse agricultural region is famously one of the highest yielding wheat and legume producing regions in North America.

Whean and soybeans are often grown on the same land. Your 1st and 5th sentences seem to contradict eachother, I might not be understanding.

> If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year.

Nah. Wheat isn't profitable if you look at it in isolation, but it is still net advantageous to have in the rotation.

> (“Roundup ready” of course)

Nah. IP soys aren't as attractive as they once were, granted, but the premium is still compelling enough to grow some.

Sadly, this is very accurate.

Relevant example from today:

"The commodities guru who warned about silver falling now, is saying the hantavirus could do the same to oil"

Click later:

Guy is just hedging against losses.

I am genuinely starting to wonder how much of the trade swings are from algo trades reacting to headlines ( and subsequent ones reacting to content;p ).

Fertilizer is pretty fungible and is a global market, so even if the US is primarily supplied by Canada, and overall global demand remained constant, prices would go up since there will be supply reduction due to the Hormuz strait being closed.

US and Canadian production is largely irrelevant to the price. These are world comodities. If worldwide production drops, prices rise. As with oil/gas producers, domestic potash producers are under no obligation to sell locally. If prices are higher in europe/asia/africa, that domestic potash will be loaded onto ships until domestic prices rise to match.

Are you forgetting the nitrogen? :)

A lot of crops need nitrogen. What has been impacted by Trump's Iran war is the supply of Urea through the Straight of Hormuz.

If the closure persists then no doubt other sources can ramp up to fill the void, but it's going to be too late for this season. Some Asian farmers have already chosen not to bother planting rice crops since the increase in fertilizer (urea) cost has meant they'd be losing money.

Fuel prices are also impacting imported produce prices.

Yes. Despite what others have said, yes. But, in general, because of the current global dynamics, fertilizer is more expensive wherever you're going to be getting it from. It just doesn't help that the US has picked a trade war with all allies at the same time, while also engaging in real wars that disrupt global supply chains of critical resources.

It's the nitrogen fertilizer almost all of which is manufactured from methane + air.

> Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought.

Both drought and the fertilizer shortage (which, as the article notes, was too late to effect planting decisions but DID impact the costs, and thereby decisions on the applied quantities, of nutrients for the winter wheat crop this year) are impacting winter wheat yields.

Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue

Even worse, oil dependence is a competitive liability --- not an advantage.

AI is energy intensive. And more expensive, carbon based based energy is a competitive disadvantage.

A competitive disadvantage in AI is an economic issue --- which ultimately translates into a National Security issue.

China leadership understands this. USA leadership is clueless.