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fullstop 4 hours ago

Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.

metiscus 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Fertilizer is pretty fungible and is a global market, so even if the US is primarily supplied by Canada, and overall global demand remained constant, prices would go up since there will be supply reduction due to the Hormuz strait being closed.

downrightmike an hour ago | parent [-]

Having the two major inputs turned off turns fungible to non-fungible

sandworm101 12 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

US and Canadian production is largely irrelevant to the price. These are world comodities. If worldwide production drops, prices rise. As with oil/gas producers, domestic potash producers are under no obligation to sell locally. If prices are higher in europe/asia/africa, that domestic potash will be loaded onto ships until domestic prices rise to match.

koverstreet 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Are you forgetting the nitrogen? :)

fullstop 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The US produces most of their own nitrogen, but the same is not true of potash.

mythrwy 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The US does have potash mines for example around Carlsbad New Mexico. But these cover only a percentage of domestic need. Perhaps they could be scaled up not sure.

jandrewrogers 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Also famously near Moab, Utah.

bluGill 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US provides a lot of its own supply there.

colechristensen 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Nitrogen is pulled out of the air which is free but the process requires hydrogen which is acquired from disassembled methane, the price of which is a significant contributor.

HarHarVeryFunny 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A lot of crops need nitrogen. What has been impacted by Trump's Iran war is the supply of Urea through the Straight of Hormuz.

If the closure persists then no doubt other sources can ramp up to fill the void, but it's going to be too late for this season. Some Asian farmers have already chosen not to bother planting rice crops since the increase in fertilizer (urea) cost has meant they'd be losing money.

Fuel prices are also impacting imported produce prices.

SecretDreams 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes. Despite what others have said, yes. But, in general, because of the current global dynamics, fertilizer is more expensive wherever you're going to be getting it from. It just doesn't help that the US has picked a trade war with all allies at the same time, while also engaging in real wars that disrupt global supply chains of critical resources.

maerF0x0 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It shocks me when I realize it's only been 16/48 of his term. We still have 2/3rds to go.

SecretDreams 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, the amount of change the world has experienced over the last 16/48 has been pretty dramatic. And the perception of the US external to he US has changed proportionally. I'd like to think the trend won't persist for the full 48, but I also did not expect quite so much in the first 16/48.

colechristensen 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's the nitrogen fertilizer almost all of which is manufactured from methane + air.

bluGill 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Pedantically, most of it is manufactured by biological processes in the soil. Soy Beans are really good at this which is why it is planted so much (the food value is secondary, but enough to give it the edge over alternatives)

For supplemental fertilizer you buy though you are correct.

colechristensen 3 hours ago | parent [-]

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