gpt-oss is good but I haven't heard anything about an update. It seems like one and done, to shut up people complaining about non-Open AI

OpenAI has released their GPT-OSS series more recently.

That's fair but those days seem so long gone now.

Also the Chinese models aren't following a typical American SaaS playbook which relies on free/cheap proprietary software for early growth. They are not just publishing their weights but also their code and often even publishing papers in Open Access journals to explicitly highlight what methods and advancements were made to accomplish their results

If you want to run AI models at scale and with reasonably quick response, there's not many alternatives to datacenter hardware. Consumer hardware is great for repurposing existing "free" compute (including gaming PCs, pro workstations etc. at the higher end) and for basic insurance against rug pulls from the big AI vendors, but increased scale will probably still bring very real benefits.

At a consistent amount of usage, datacenters are at least an order of magnitude more hardware efficient. I'm sure Nvidia and AMD would be fine fighting for B2C if it meant volume would be 10+x.

Now, given they can't satisfy current volume, they are forced to settle for just having crazy margins.

None of that is true, at least in theory. You can trivially change layer size simply by adding extra columns initialized as 0, effectively embedding your smaller network in a larger network. You can add layers in a similar way, and in fact LLMs are surprisingly robust to having layers added and removed - you can sometimes actually improve performance simply by duplicating some middle layers[0]. Tokenization is probably the hardest but all the layers between the first and last just encode embeddings; it's probably not impossible to retrain those while preserving the middle parts.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47431671 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47322887

Hopefully we will find a way to make it so that making minor changes don't require a full retrain. Training how to train, as a concept, comes to mind.

And yet the KL divergence after changing all that stuff remains remarkably similar between different models, regardless of the specific hyperparameters and block diagrams employed at pretraining time. Some choices are better, some worse, but they all succeed at the game of next-token prediction to a similar extent.

To me, that suggests that transformer pretraining creates some underlying structure or geometry that hasn't yet been fully appreciated, and that may be more reusable than people think.

Ultimately, I also doubt that the model weights are going to turn out to be all that important. Not compared to the toolchains as a whole.

Also many of these Chinese companies aren't just opening their weights. They are open sourcing their code AND publishing detailed research papers alongside them to reveal how they accomplished what they accomplished.

That's very different from an American SaaS model which relies of free but proprietary software for early growth

They are building a pipeline, and the goal is to get people in the door.

If you forever stand at the entrance eating the free samples, that's fine, they don't care. Other people are going through the door and you are still consuming what they feed you. Doesn't mean it's going to be bad or evil, but they are staking their territory of control.

>As for state sponsorship, a lot of things are state sponsored.

You can make any comparison you want if you use adjectives rather than values. I can say that cars use a massive amount of water (all those radiators!) to try and downplay agricultural water usage. But its blatantly disingenuous.

SV is overwhelmingly private (actual constitutional private) money. To the point that you should disregard people saying otherwise, just like you would the people saying cars use massive amounts of water.

Anything that isn't explicitly to the benefit of US interests must be against them /s

Yeah, a lot of people are still living within the paradigm of tribalism: my team good, other team bad.

But the events of the past decade or so have clearly demonstrated that there are no "good" actors.

I personally couldn't care less who wins in the China vs US AI competition, both sides have a long list of pros and cons.

I'd get a bit informed about what exactly Chinese dominance entails. Ask a few Uyghurs, Cantonese Hong Kongers, or even Tibetans.

Then decide ...