The only way in which this makes sense in international is something like courier flights. I don't know if this even really exists in the form it used to, but there used to be small-scale services that would buy regular airline tickets (in advance but transferable) and then resell the seat but not the luggage allowance for major city pairs like NY-London. A person who can fly on short notice with no baggage allowance gets a cheap ticket, and the customers get their essential items delivered more cheaply than last-second air freight.

A key element is that the passenger was contracting out their baggage allowance and so didn't ever interact with the items - they never even saw it. So no liability.

I think it probably works fine for national delivery couriers filling space in their van with additional extra bulky items; services to disintermediate them to move heavy goods for less cost than a dedicated courier already exist and some of them even wrap suitable insurance around it.

Internationally if it's P2P rather than P2companythatdoesthecustomspaperwork it's pretty much pure smuggling-as-a-service, and yes, people who kindly help carry the stranger's Colombian souvenir on their passenger flight for a small fraction of the ticket cost will find themselves being jailed at the other end.

I can easily imagine a market for this, because I was in the market for this until last week.

I had a large, bulky, and fragile package I needed to send to Florida from New Jersey. The shipping corps were happy to do it for me for $500+, and no guarantee that it wouldn't arrive as a box of shattered glass.

I ended up finding someone in town who happened to be driving there, and was kind enough to deliver it for me. They still offer no such guarantee, but they also were kind enough not to charge me for this!

Relevant Mitch Hedberg (rest in peace) joke: “ I love my fed-ex guy cause he's a drug dealer and he doesn't even know it”

Fair, I should have said even cheaper as well.

I think you are being too glib. The trust model is really different for small packages. Housing small amounts of drugs in objects is way easier and more likely than wrecking someone's airbnb.

And the consequences are higher for the driver. You can insure an airbnb or trip. Are you going to pay for someone's legal fees when they get popped for being a drug mule?

I note that both Airbnb and Uber marketed as "use part of something you're not otherwise using", and almost immediately became professionalized. Full time drivers. People buying apartments to let out.

Maybe they wouldn't have worked without that professionalization? Which is of course not possible if you're going the "passing traveller" model.

Gratitude doesn't scale: plot the stock price of Airbnb vs. user growth over time to verify.

You might be assuming an iterated game, but it's likely your initial market will be mostly an One-Shot Prisoner's Dilemma. Proper modelling will allow you to mathematically calculate your blind spots and test what it would cost to address them.

> Sending stuff "with someone who's traveling" is super common, it just happens with zero oversight right now

I think you're letting the excitement of starting a new company cloud your judgement here. I worry you're not valuing the "sphere of trust" of that someone properly.

If you and I were friends and I wanted you to carry a brand new unopened iPhone to my family in India because you were visiting, I don't think you would even open it and inspect it. I certainly wouldn't risk our friendship over a phone and even if I could put you in such a position, you would likely anticipate it and refuse.

That cannot be said between two absolute strangers who are engaged in this single transaction, never to meet again.

> Trust infrastructure solves it over time: ID verification, package limits, photo documentation, escrow paymnts

Not really.

Airbnb looses hundreds of millions of dollars a year, worldwide in theft, burglary, damage, murder and fraud. Airbnb does a fantastic job of scrubbing that information and making people sign NDAs as part of settlements.

The initial (2008 era) Airbnb market was full of people who appreciated they were getting an extremely affordable product and ensured the system would continue to function well.

I was an early Airbnb user and back in 2009 I used to carry in some supplies when I checked in, make and have breakfast with the host (it used to be actual owners living in their homes back then), vacuum the room and make the bed I used to be in before I checked out.

Unlike today, when some Airbnbs can exceed the cost of a hotel in that area after including all expenses, the price difference between a hotel and an Airbnb was absolutely insane (a week at an Airbnb would cost what a night at a hotel would in that area. Plus, the Airbnb came with free - often covered - parking, laundry, kitchen and full speed wifi).

These hosts would move heaven and earth for me. I knew I wouldn't need to worry about having a place with my previous hosts as long as I gave them adequate notice of my visit.

Since 2024, I don't use Airbnb anymore - those hosts are gone because their localities have banned Airbnb. Most of them have sold their homes and moved because income from Airbnb allowed them to live in those homes in the first place.

Hotels now are actually cheaper, there's atleast a few people onsite that I can talk to if I need something (my last 2 Airbnbs were literally fully remote and managed by a professional company that really didn't want to communicate, even by chat, at all as if every message cost them a loss of $100 from the booking) and in some cases the Airbnb cleaning fee exceeded the cost of the room itself!

Trust has turned from a Feature to an Expense at Airbnb and its new costs reflect that shift. Trust Infrastructure is now Airbnb's largest tax, a fundamental shift from being their greatest asset - the resulting horrible unit economics reflect the stock price performance.

This is completely different. While for Uber and AirBnb as the person delivering the service I have to worry about a private citizen either doing harm to my property (more statistically likely) or my person (much less likely), if I am pulled over by a cop carrying illegal goods I have to deal with the law enforcement.

Insurance can take of property damage.

My personal threat model is:

1. Law enforcement with qualified immunity and a “monopoly on [legalized] violence” .

.

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99. Everyone else

Uber and Airbnb had budgets to subsidize the first mass of people. Heck, I’m less than nobody and got paid the first several times I used an Uber.

Uber and AirBnB lied about their model as an end run around regulation.

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