Gratitude doesn't scale: plot the stock price of Airbnb vs. user growth over time to verify.

You might be assuming an iterated game, but it's likely your initial market will be mostly an One-Shot Prisoner's Dilemma. Proper modelling will allow you to mathematically calculate your blind spots and test what it would cost to address them.

> Sending stuff "with someone who's traveling" is super common, it just happens with zero oversight right now

I think you're letting the excitement of starting a new company cloud your judgement here. I worry you're not valuing the "sphere of trust" of that someone properly.

If you and I were friends and I wanted you to carry a brand new unopened iPhone to my family in India because you were visiting, I don't think you would even open it and inspect it. I certainly wouldn't risk our friendship over a phone and even if I could put you in such a position, you would likely anticipate it and refuse.

That cannot be said between two absolute strangers who are engaged in this single transaction, never to meet again.

> Trust infrastructure solves it over time: ID verification, package limits, photo documentation, escrow paymnts

Not really.

Airbnb looses hundreds of millions of dollars a year, worldwide in theft, burglary, damage, murder and fraud. Airbnb does a fantastic job of scrubbing that information and making people sign NDAs as part of settlements.

The initial (2008 era) Airbnb market was full of people who appreciated they were getting an extremely affordable product and ensured the system would continue to function well.

I was an early Airbnb user and back in 2009 I used to carry in some supplies when I checked in, make and have breakfast with the host (it used to be actual owners living in their homes back then), vacuum the room and make the bed I used to be in before I checked out.

Unlike today, when some Airbnbs can exceed the cost of a hotel in that area after including all expenses, the price difference between a hotel and an Airbnb was absolutely insane (a week at an Airbnb would cost what a night at a hotel would in that area. Plus, the Airbnb came with free - often covered - parking, laundry, kitchen and full speed wifi).

These hosts would move heaven and earth for me. I knew I wouldn't need to worry about having a place with my previous hosts as long as I gave them adequate notice of my visit.

Since 2024, I don't use Airbnb anymore - those hosts are gone because their localities have banned Airbnb. Most of them have sold their homes and moved because income from Airbnb allowed them to live in those homes in the first place.

Hotels now are actually cheaper, there's atleast a few people onsite that I can talk to if I need something (my last 2 Airbnbs were literally fully remote and managed by a professional company that really didn't want to communicate, even by chat, at all as if every message cost them a loss of $100 from the booking) and in some cases the Airbnb cleaning fee exceeded the cost of the room itself!

Trust has turned from a Feature to an Expense at Airbnb and its new costs reflect that shift. Trust Infrastructure is now Airbnb's largest tax, a fundamental shift from being their greatest asset - the resulting horrible unit economics reflect the stock price performance.