| ▲ | aurareturn 10 hours ago |
| Funny because many people here were so confident that OpenAI is going to collapse because of how much compute they pre-ordered. But now it seems like it's a major strategic advantage. They're 2x'ing usage limits on Codex plans to steal CC customers and it seems to be working. I'm seeing a lot of goodwill for Codex and a ton of bad PR for CC. It seems like 90% of Claude's recent problems are strictly lack of compute related. |
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| ▲ | afavour 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > people here were so confident that OpenAI is going to collapse because of how much compute they pre-ordered That's not why. It was and is because they've been incredibly unfocused and have burnt through cash on ill-advised, expensive things like Sora. By comparison Anthropic have been very focused. |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't think that was the main reason for people thinking OpenAI is going to collapse here. By far, the biggest argument was that OpenAI bet too much on compute. Being unfocused is generally an easy fix. Just cut things that don't matter as much, which they seem to be doing. | | |
| ▲ | scottyah 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Nobody was talking about them betting too much on compute, people were saying that their shady deals on compute with NVIDIA and Oracle were creating a giant bubble in their attempt to get a Too Big To Fail judgement (in their words- taxpayer-backed "backstop"). | |
| ▲ | airstrike 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It really wasn't. Most of the argument was around product portfolio and agentic coding performance. | | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | That’s just short term talk. The main thesis behind their collapse is that they won’t be able to pay their compute bills because they won’t have enough demand to. | | |
| ▲ | airstrike 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That doesn't really track because their compute isn't like a debt obligation. The compute topic was more around how OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, and others were all announcing commitments to spend money in each other in a circular way which could just net out to zero value. |
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| ▲ | jampekka 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | To me it seems like they burn so much money they can do lots of things in parallel. My guess would be that e.g. codex and sora are very independently developed. After all there's a quite a hard limit on how many bodies are beneficial to a software project. | | |
| ▲ | wahnfrieden 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | They all compete internally over constrained compute resources - for R&D and production. |
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| ▲ | KaiserPro 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Personally its down to Altman having the cognitive capacity of a sleeping snail, the world insight of a hormonal 14 year old who's only ever read one series of manga. Despite having literal experts at his fingertips, he still isn't able to grasp that he's talking unfilters bollocks most of the time. Not to mention is Jason level of "oath breaking"/dishonesty. | |
| ▲ | Robdel12 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > By comparison Anthropic have been very focused. Ah yes, very focused on crapping out every possible thing they can copy and half bake? |
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| ▲ | raincole 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > I'm seeing a lot of goodwill for Codex and a ton of bad PR for CC. AI is one of the things that you cannot find genuine opinions online. Just like politics. If you visit, say, r/codex, you'll see all the people complaining about how their limits are consumed by "just N prompts" (N is a ridiculously small integer). It's all astroturfed from all sides. |
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| ▲ | hcurtiss 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree. And I am seeing it in a lot of venues, especially political discourse. Commenting is increasingly AI driven I fear the whole thing is going to collapse and nobody will be able to rely on online commentary to make decisions. At least not without a lot of independent research, maybe that’s for the best, but it’s definitely going to change the Internet. |
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| ▲ | madeofpalk 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Seems very short term. Like how cheap Uber was initially. Like Claude was before! Eventually OpenAI will need to stop burning money. |
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| ▲ | superfrank 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | OpenAI will need to stop burning money eventually, but so does everyone else in the space. The longer they can do this the more squeeze it puts on their competitors. I would call out though that I think there is one way in which this differs from the Uber situation. Theoretically at some point we should hit a place where compute costs start to come down either because we've built enough resources or because most tasks don't need the newest models and a lot of the work people are doing can be automatically sent to cheaper models that are good enough. Unless Uber's self driving program magically pops back up, Uber doesn't really have that since their biggest expense is driver wages. I think it's a long shot, but not impossible, that if OpenAI can subsidize costs long enough that prices don't need to go too much higher to be sustainable. |
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| ▲ | simplyluke 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| My standing assumption is the darling company/model will change every quarter for the foreseeable future, and everyone will be equally convinced that the hotness of the week will win the entire future. As buyers, we all benefit from a very competitive market. |
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| ▲ | l5870uoo9y 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| In hindsight, it is painfully clear that Antropic’s conservative investment strategy has them struggling with keeping up with demand and caused their profit margin to shrink significantly as last buyer of compute. |
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| ▲ | redml 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| they've also introduced a lot of caching and token burn related bugs which makes things worse. any bug that multiplies the token burn also multiplies their infrastructure problems. |
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| ▲ | energy123 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Is that 2x still going on I thought that ended in early April |
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| ▲ | arcanemachiner 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Different plan. The old 2x has been discontinued, and the bonus is now (temporarily) available for the new $100 plan users in an effort, presumably, to entice them away from Anthropic. | | | |
| ▲ | lawgimenez 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It’s for Pro users only, I think the 2x is up to May 31. | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They did it again to "celebrate" the release of the $100 plan. | | |
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| ▲ | kaliqt 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That’s more a leadership decision because Anthropic are nerfing the model to cut costs, if they stop doing that then they’ll stay ahead. |
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| ▲ | Leynos 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Their top tier plan got a 3x limit boost. This has been the first week ever where I haven't run out of tokens. |
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| ▲ | pphysch 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The market here is extraordinarily vibes-based and burning billions of dollars for a ephemeral PR boost, which might only last another couple weeks until people find a reason to hate Codex, does not reflect well on OAI's long term viability. |
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| ▲ | zamalek 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > It seems like 90% of Claude's recent problems are strictly lack of compute related. Downtime is annoying, but the problem is that over the past 2-3 weeks Claude has been outrageously stupid when it does work. I have always been skeptical of everything produced - but now I have no faith whatsoever in anything that it produces. I'm not even sure if I will experiment with 4.7, unless there are glowing reviews. Codex has had none of these problems. I still don't trust anything it produces, but it's not like everything it produces is completely and utterly useless. |
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| ▲ | scottyah 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | So many people confuse sycophantic behavior with producing results. |
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| ▲ | saltyoldman 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I have both Claude and OpenAI, side by side. I would say sonnet 46 still beats gpt 54 for coding (at least in my use case) But after about 45 minutes I'm out of my window, so I use openai for the next 4 hours and I can't even reach my limit. |
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| ▲ | llm_nerd 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Most of the compute OpenAI "preordered" is vapour. And it has nothing to do with why people thought the company -- which is still in extremely rocky rapids -- was headed to bankruptcy. Anthropic has been very disciplined and focused (overwhelmingly on coding, fwiw), while OpenAI has been bleeding money trying to be the everything AI company with no real specialty as everyone else beat them in random domains. If I had to qualify OpenAI's primary focus, it has been glazing users and making a generation of malignant narcissists. But yes, Anthropic has been growing by leaps and bounds and has capacity issues. That's a very healthy position to be in, despite the fact that it yields the inevitable foot-stomping "I'm moving to competitor!" posts constantly. |
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| ▲ | guelo 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | How is droves of your customers leaving, whether they're foot stomping or not, healthy? | | |
| ▲ | llm_nerd 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Droves? I mean, if we take the "I'm leaving!" posts seriously, the company has people so emotionally invested they feel the need to announce their departure is a pretty good place to be. Some tiny sampling of unhappy customers is indicative of nothing. Honestly at this point I am pretty firmly of the belief that OAI is paying astroturfers to post the "Boy does anyone else think Claude is dumb now and Codex is better?" (always some unreproducible "feel" kind of thing that are to be adopted at face value despite overwhelming evidence that we shouldn't). OAI is kind of in the desperation stage -- see the bizarre acquisitions they've been making, including paying $100M for some fringe podcast almost no one had heard of -- and it would not be remotely unexpected. | | |
| ▲ | guelo 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | We have no idea the ratio of foot stompers to quite quitters but I'm sure most people don't announce it. I cancelled my subscription and hadn't told anybody. And I quit based on personal experience over the last few weeks, not on social media pr. |
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| ▲ | __turbobrew__ 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| All of the smart people I know went to work at OpenAI and none at Anthropic. In addition to financial capital, OpenAI has a massive advantage in human capital over Anthropic. As long as OpenAI can sustain compute and paying SWE $1million/year they will end up with the better product. |
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| ▲ | scottyah 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Attracting talent with huge sums of money just gets you people who optimize for money, and it's usually never a good long-term decision. I think it's what led to Google's downturn. | | | |
| ▲ | KaiserPro 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > OpenAI has a massive advantage in human capital over Anthropic. but if your leader is a dipshit, then its a waste. Look You can't just throw money at the problem, you need people who are able to make the right decisions are the right time. That that requires leadership. Part of the reason why facebook fucked up VR/AR is that they have a leader who only cares about features/metrics, not user experience. Part of the reason why twitter always lost money is because they had loads of teams all running in different directions, because Dorsey is utterly incapable of making a firm decision. Its not money and talent, its execution. | |
| ▲ | staticman2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Are those "smart people you know" machine learning researchers? |
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