I don't think that was the main reason for people thinking OpenAI is going to collapse here.

By far, the biggest argument was that OpenAI bet too much on compute.

Being unfocused is generally an easy fix. Just cut things that don't matter as much, which they seem to be doing.

scottyah 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nobody was talking about them betting too much on compute, people were saying that their shady deals on compute with NVIDIA and Oracle were creating a giant bubble in their attempt to get a Too Big To Fail judgement (in their words- taxpayer-backed "backstop").

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airstrike 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It really wasn't. Most of the argument was around product portfolio and agentic coding performance.

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aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent [-]

That’s just short term talk. The main thesis behind their collapse is that they won’t be able to pay their compute bills because they won’t have enough demand to.

	▲	airstrike an hour ago \| parent [-]
		That doesn't really track because their compute isn't like a debt obligation. The compute topic was more around how OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, and others were all announcing commitments to spend money in each other in a circular way which could just net out to zero value.