It would be nice if folks would learn from the lessons of the past, and work out how to avoid the mistakes which caused the bad times --- a co-worker and I were unique for having a story/tradition out of the Great Depression, the story was of my grandfather taking his year's tobacco crop in to Richmond in his truck, what it sold for wouldn't buy gas to drive it back home, so he sold it and walked back (a trip I re-created on my bicycle when I was young, my first century), the tradition is that Christmas gifts are described by a riddle, and when gifts are opened, the entire family gathers in a circle, the recipient reads the riddle out loud, and everyone makes a guess (opening presents is an all-day affair).

Maybe folks would be more careful of their money or the economy if there were more oral traditions along those lines --- one of my wife's aunts just passed away, a child of the Depression, her home was filled with home goods and food stuffs purchased when on sale beyond any reasonable expectation of her individual use, but all perfectly organized and ready to prevent future need.

We live in the Information Age. Things happen quicker now.

The Roman Empire took 500 years to decline.

The Soviet Union took 2 years.

The US broke centuries old alliances and upended the global order in a matter of months.

If there is a collapse of the American empire it won’t happen over centuries but in the span of a few tweets.

I do think your comment is bringing up valid questions/points.

One thing that worries me about the current state of things is scale and speed. Modern technology, markets, communication systems and supply chains make it possible for things to go catastrophically wrong very quickly for a massive number of people.

I think this is somewhat unique to the current era.

I still don’t buy into the belief that we’re absolutely witnessing a collapse. Studying history shows that things have been far worse (politically, socially geopolitically, etc) and we’ve come out the other side numerous times.

So I think “ups and downs” is probably the right way to look at this. I do worry about the impact of modern technology on this equation.

OP did say declining. By your own accounting there were 500 years across which a Roman too might have correctly observed that they were living in a declining Rome.

The person you responded to didn’t say the decline started recently.

I would argue it started with Reagan, with some ups and downs since.

To answer point by point:

- yes the Civil War could have literally been our Berlin Wall. And maybe we needed that. But the actions of the post war, for better or worse, did unite us enough to not have that happen.

- The gilded age should have also been the fall of the US. It arguably is the setup to the stock crash. But decades of collective opposition lead to a leader who could guide us out of thar crash with some of the most progressive policy we've seen.

The crimes of the 70's was manufactured a lot in part of the US government. And whole Vietnam was bad, the common American was never in danger over these issues past yet another recession. It wasn't quite the endgame we've seen other times.

Meanwhile, now: you can argue that this empire was falling for 45 years. With a few ups, but overall trending down. If the bronze age can fall in 100 years, I see no reason the hyper accelerated digital age can't fall in 30-40.

We can still be saved by yet another huge progressive push, but will we this time? It'll depend so much on the next 2 years.

It sure doesn't make me feel good to say.

Rome is an extreme outlier. Its size peaked in 117. The beginning of the decline is up for debate but you could probably say it was somewhere in the 3rd century. The empire still managed to last until 1453. That decline is far, far longer than almost every other empire in history lasted from start to finish.

The British Empire reached its greatest territorial extent in 1920. The height of its power was around this time as well. It was the largest and most powerful empire in history at that point. By the 1950s, it was already a bit player in geopolitics, and by the 1980s it was effectively gone.

The USSR was the #2 (or maybe #1) most powerful empire in the world for a time. It felt like it evaporated practically overnight, although I'd say the decline took a couple of decades.

In any case, I don't expect to see the end of the American empire in my lifetime. I do think we've peaked. I don't say this because of the obvious crises, but because our leadership has become useless and stupid and the people fail to demand better. This is not just about Trump, although he's the most obvious example of it. Think about the upcoming midterm elections. Do we expect the new Congress to actually be useful? Regardless of which party wins power, I don't expect much. Think about 2028. What are the odds we get a good President? Just about zero, I'd say. There's a decent chance we won't get one who is so actively idiotic and malevolent, but good? No chance.

All of the major issues we face can be fixed, except that one, and that makes it all unfixable. We have a looming debt crisis that nobody in power will acknowledge in any real way. We're losing allies. Trade is disrupted. We have a large population of people who aren't legally allowed to be here and nobody in power wants to do anything about it (whether removing them or convincing them to leave or giving them a path to legitimacy, there's nothing being proposed but idiotic showboating). Our tech edge is rapidly fading.

So yes, I look at inmates running the asylum, I look at empty storefronts in my wealthy neighborhood, I look at the joke "high speed" trains running between our political capital and financial capital, I look at massive uncertainty in air travel because our government decided to stop paying critical personnel, and so much more, and I think that we're in decline.

"just"

"Your heart is completely falling apart, but aside from that you're in excellent health."

I'm not so sure about that, in any case. We design the best computer chips but we don't make them. The best fabrication technology doesn't come from us. The best airliners don't come from American companies anymore. We're rapidly falling behind on energy. We're strong where the puck is, but not where it's going.