| ▲ | wat10000 2 days ago | |
It sure doesn't make me feel good to say. Rome is an extreme outlier. Its size peaked in 117. The beginning of the decline is up for debate but you could probably say it was somewhere in the 3rd century. The empire still managed to last until 1453. That decline is far, far longer than almost every other empire in history lasted from start to finish. The British Empire reached its greatest territorial extent in 1920. The height of its power was around this time as well. It was the largest and most powerful empire in history at that point. By the 1950s, it was already a bit player in geopolitics, and by the 1980s it was effectively gone. The USSR was the #2 (or maybe #1) most powerful empire in the world for a time. It felt like it evaporated practically overnight, although I'd say the decline took a couple of decades. In any case, I don't expect to see the end of the American empire in my lifetime. I do think we've peaked. I don't say this because of the obvious crises, but because our leadership has become useless and stupid and the people fail to demand better. This is not just about Trump, although he's the most obvious example of it. Think about the upcoming midterm elections. Do we expect the new Congress to actually be useful? Regardless of which party wins power, I don't expect much. Think about 2028. What are the odds we get a good President? Just about zero, I'd say. There's a decent chance we won't get one who is so actively idiotic and malevolent, but good? No chance. All of the major issues we face can be fixed, except that one, and that makes it all unfixable. We have a looming debt crisis that nobody in power will acknowledge in any real way. We're losing allies. Trade is disrupted. We have a large population of people who aren't legally allowed to be here and nobody in power wants to do anything about it (whether removing them or convincing them to leave or giving them a path to legitimacy, there's nothing being proposed but idiotic showboating). Our tech edge is rapidly fading. So yes, I look at inmates running the asylum, I look at empty storefronts in my wealthy neighborhood, I look at the joke "high speed" trains running between our political capital and financial capital, I look at massive uncertainty in air travel because our government decided to stop paying critical personnel, and so much more, and I think that we're in decline. | ||
| ▲ | vkou 2 days ago | parent [-] | |
> It felt like it evaporated practically overnight It did, because Gorbachev chose peaceful dissolution over hegemony enforced at gunpoint. He didn't have to make that choice. He wasn't forced to make that choice. The USSR could have limped along for a very long time. What he did was the right thing, but, as they say, no good deed goes unpunished. | ||