| |
| ▲ | pjc50 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America I think the Ukranians are still unimpressed with the withdrawal of US support, especially from the shells which were being manufactured in the US (now moved to Rheinmetall), and the de-sanctioning of Russian oil: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2871wyz9ko | |
| ▲ | fooker 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > We make plenty of stuff at scale Maybe this video of a rather famous YouTuber trying to manufacture something as simple as a grill scrubber with a US supply chain would help you understand how bad it is? https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY | | |
| ▲ | mmh0000 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | TL;DW: skip to 17m55s for the important bit [1] https://youtu.be/3ZTGwcHQfLY?t=1075 | | |
| ▲ | rented_mule 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I saw hints of this ~20 years ago. I was working on software for a consumer device. For manufacturing it, we chose Foxconn. One non-negotiable point from their end was that they had to write some of the software on the device. They didn't care which part or how small. The device had a physical keyboard with a micocontroller that managed it and they ended up writing the code that ran on that micro as it was largely independent of the code we were writing, and easy for us to test. The first versions were not great, but they got better quickly. As we talked amongst ourselves about why they were so emphatic about this, it became clear to us that they were taking a long term view of the importance of moving into the intellectual property side of things. Dustin points out that, in some areas, they are there. | |
| ▲ | fooker 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There are multiple interesting bits, worth watching the whole thing at some point. Something that stuck with me was that dude had an uncle that worked at a bolt factory down the road, and now there is literally no way to source domestically made bolts. And that they could find one retired guy after scouring multiple states who could help make an injection mold. I'm sure some of the larger defense contractors have a few guys who can do this, but that makes for a pretty low bus factor. | |
| ▲ | slumberlust an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | No thanks. Watched the whole thing since its a great channel with great content. |
|
| |
| ▲ | giantg2 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "We make plenty of stuff at scale." Not the stuff that matters (chips, electronics, metals, etc). We don't even have a primary lead smelter, which we would likely need if we got into a peer conflict. It's also important to note that the US lacks the ability to quickly pivot and set up plants. Much of the knowledge to do so has been disappearing as employment in that sector has been steadily declining for decades. Sure we make stuff at scale using automation, but that automation can't be changed to significantly different stuff in a reasonable timeframe. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | We suck at ultra-heavy industry that outputs commodities. We're great at light industry, or specialised heavy industry, which includes a lot of electronics. You're correct on inflexibility. | | |
| ▲ | fooker 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | Can you give some specific examples of what light industry we are great at? | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Pharmaceuticals, medical devices and craft food and beverage products come to mind. Guns and ammo, too. | | |
| ▲ | giantg2 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah, even if we can produce them now, we don't have the pipeline to keep them running - steel for guns comes from other countries, we don't have a primary lead smelter in the country, medical devices that rely on electronics rely on foreign components, etc. The only reason pharma can operate here is because of the regulations, and even then many components chemicals are sourced internationally. | | |
| ▲ | fooker 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | We don't even produce things like bolts, screws, and springs. If we suddenly had to, it would take billions of dollars and several months to spin up any real capacity. | |
| ▲ | hypeatei 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | A quarter of steel used in the U.S. is imported, and of that quarter, 40% comes from Mexico and Canada; very little comes from China[0]. So, not only does your point fall flat, the people we get steel from are our neighbors so it'd make sense to not sour with relationships with them like the current admin is doing with chaotic trade policy and invasion threats. I really don't understand the FUD around US manufacturing capability, you'd essentially need to craft the greatest conspiracy ever to think that every politician, defense agency, intelligence agency, etc. is asleep at the wheel to not recognize this supposed threat and do nothing about it. 0: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/where-does-us-ge... | | |
| ▲ | fooker 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > 40% comes from Mexico and Canada Where do you think this originates from? China ships a rather large amount of stuff to these countries to take advantage of the trade agreements. So much that you can find satellite images of large yards in Mexico that are used for this purpose with barely any effort. | | |
| ▲ | hypeatei 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Okay, let's assume most of their steel is Chinese (I have my doubts because, yet again, more conspiracies), we only import a quarter of the steel we use. That would hurt losing it overnight, sure, but we wouldn't be absolutely toast like the autarkists are saying. These takes are much more doomer than I'm willing to bet the supporters of "bring everything back" realize. Do you have no faith in the US economy / populace adapting to a hypothetical all out war with China? | | |
| ▲ | giantg2 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I have a feeling that China doesn't export much steel. They more likely export their steel in the form of finished products. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | s1artibartfast 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think there's very little to be learned from Ukrainian technology. They dont have unprecedented servos, software, or manufacturing. What they have is a dire situation that drives efficient and pragmatic proucurement. This is much harder to export. | | |
| ▲ | freefaler 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | They have a working operational system and battle tested tactics, not only procurement.
It's not the rifle that distinguishes the special forces, but how it's used. They built a network centric warefare with starlink and cheap android tablets down to the drone teams in the field. They built a network of cheap acousting sensors (old phones) as passive sensors and using ML models to find the drones cheaply and increase the coverage. (Radars are expensive and easy to hit because they emit). What they achieved is a "sensor fusion like" distributed system buid on cheap components and updated realtime. And all this is battle tested in the new environment of transparent battlefield (there is always a drone looking). Also a lot of real-life electronic warfare stuff and drone applications. This is what's missing in the US army. They are optimized for a symetrical 20th century warfare. | | |
| ▲ | maxglute 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | UKR = entire country of +40m is on the battlefront so they can do total war mobilized homefront distributed system... so can Iran. But it's very different for force projecting security guarantor US - can't convince paying protectorates to pivot total war defense posture in peacetime, that's what they bribe US not to do. And ultimately whatever model of distributed lethality / survivability (which US planning foresaw) is less relevant that US global commitments requires high end hardware that has to be rotated / propositioned selectively, and sustainable only in limited numbers vs adversaries mobilized on total war. But the fundamental problem is US adversaries are catching up on precision strike complex. Iran isn't asymmetric warfare, but restoration of symmetry. It's not so much US getting weaker as adversaries getting stronger, and without monopoly over mass precision strike (which naval / air superiority / supremacy is only delivery platform), US expeditionary mode simply on the losing side of many local attrition scenarios. Ultimately all US adversaries will gain commoditized local precision strike (even deadlier if bundled with high end ISR), at varying scales due to proliferation requiring persistence across global theatres US simply doesn't have numbers/logistics for. TLDR: US expeditionary model is bunch of goons with rifles in trucks, driving around neighbourhood where everyone had knives that could not get in range. The second everyone else buys guns, then rifles, the expeditionary model breaks. |
|
| |
| ▲ | SideburnsOfDoom 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America. That is happening, only with "EU" not "America". Because the EU are Ukraine's allies. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-open-10-weapons-expor... https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-to-open-arms-factory... https://euobserver.com/209049/eu-signs-off-on-e260m-grant-fo... As for the US being Ukrainian allies as compared to EU, well: https://kyivindependent.com/us-military-aid-to-ukraine-dropp... | |
| ▲ | generic92034 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America. But Putin would not like that! /s | |
| ▲ | pydry 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America. The soviet union collapsed as a result of military overspending and massive supply chain corruption in an attempt to keep up with an opponent with lower levels of corruption and a far more powerful industrial base. Which is to say, inviting the gold toilet brigade from Ukraine to come and build our weapons while showering them with cash would signal that that Christmas came early for Putin. | | |
| ▲ | pjc50 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Reality of course is the other way around: the US defense industry gets to build gold toilets (for the White House ballroom built on the ruins of the East Wing), while the Ukranians absolutely must build stuff that works and is cheap or they get a missile on their heads. The US survived spending a trillion dollars to achieve very little in Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm sure they'll survive spending another trillion over a decade to achieve nothing in Iran other than hundreds of thousands dead. | | |
| ▲ | justacrow 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | What do you mean "achieve very little"? A lot of American oligarchs made boatloads of money! | |
| ▲ | pydry 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The reality is that most of the Ukrainian leadership is like Timur Mindich - furiously stashing away cash for the day when they inevitably have to flee to the west like he did. For now they are generally safe in Ukraine as Russia avoids bombing leadership centers for strategic reasons. The west tolerates nearly all of the corruption in Ukraine but keeps tight control of two political organs in Ukraine - NABU and SAPO. These "anti corruption agencies" will mostly hear and see no evil until a politican in Ukraine deviates from western foreign policy goals. Then they "discover" how corrupt this one individual turned out to be and crack down on them until everybody is once again on the same page. Twice they have threatened Zelensky (once when he tried to bring the agencies under his direct control) and twice he has backed down. | | |
| ▲ | fooker 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Leaders being corrupt is not a great reason to let a country get steamrolled by the russian war machine | | |
| ▲ | pydry 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's inevitable now. If they didn't want to let the country get steamrolled then Zelensky probably should have signed the "keep the NATO war machine out of Ukraine" Istanbul deal from 2022. Given the nature of the US war machine and how prone it is to acts of extreme terrorism (as we are seeing in this war), Russia is logically (albeit quite brutally) trying to keep it away from its most vulnerable border. | | |
| ▲ | fooker 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | It has been inevitable for more that three years, I'm sure you'll be proven right any day now! |
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > inviting the gold toilet brigade from Ukraine to come and build our weapons Ukraine is a massive weapons manufacturer. It's a small country holding Russia's entire military-industrial complex at bay. We have a lot to learn from them, even if it's just tactics and industrial organisation. And those lessons don't only apply to fighting pisspot dictatorships like Putin's. |
|
|
| |
| ▲ | fooker 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | These are orthogonal problems. Getting into this war was stupid. Being unable to win it is also pretty bad. | | |
| ▲ | pjc50 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Clausewitz would say they are the same: the stupid war is the continuation of stupid politics by other means. The objectives are unclear, which prevents them being achieved. | |
| ▲ | petesergeant 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | These are the same problem. Getting into this war was stupid because it's virtually impossible to win it. |
| |
| ▲ | chneu 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Correction: Hegseth is a crusader. He is a super zealous religious fanatic who very much wants to destroy as many Muslims as possible. He has a crusades tattoo and openly talks about killing heathens in his WEEKLY SERMON. He might be an idiot alcoholic, but he very much knows what he is doing. | | |
| ▲ | petesergeant 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > he very much knows what he is doing Nothing about how this war is going suggests he has any idea what he’s doing as SecWar | |
| ▲ | mcphage 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Correction: Hegseth is a crusader. [...SNIP...] He might be an idiot alcoholic, but he very much knows what he is doing. That sound like he knows what he wants to do, but that's not the same as knowing what he is doing. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Indeed. One of the contracting things I turned down was someone who knew what they wanted to do was make Uber for aircraft. I turned it down because they clearly didn't know enough about this goal to fill an elevator pitch, let alone a slide deck, and I think many of the current US Secretary of XYZ leaders are similarly unaware of how vast a chasm lay between what they wanted to do and what they had actually developed a specific, measurable, realistic, and time-constrained plan to actually achieve. | |
| ▲ | ryandrake 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | English language ambiguity problem. "Knows what he is doing" has two potential meanings: it could mean competence, or it could mean clear intent. I think OP meant the latter. |
|
|
|
| is china helping ukraine also? The real "force multiplier" is basically the same as it was 100 years ago: fancy advanced tech works great to clear large, unoccupied spaces with no terrain costs; it still won't go into a jungle, climbmountains or fight in the streats. Whats compounding existing reality, is how cheap it is to use commercial tech from any of these manufacturing hubs, china included, and turn it into a small but persistent offensive weapon. So now Americas got billions of dollars worth of ammo up agains millions of dollars worth of fodder, and that won't clear the way to controlling a large, well defended plot of land. America's leaders are drunk and high on their own propaganda, even while Ukraine has demonstrated just how useless the old, bulky and costly tech is. |