"We make plenty of stuff at scale."

Not the stuff that matters (chips, electronics, metals, etc). We don't even have a primary lead smelter, which we would likely need if we got into a peer conflict.

It's also important to note that the US lacks the ability to quickly pivot and set up plants. Much of the knowledge to do so has been disappearing as employment in that sector has been steadily declining for decades. Sure we make stuff at scale using automation, but that automation can't be changed to significantly different stuff in a reasonable timeframe.

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JumpCrisscross 11 hours ago | parent [-]

We suck at ultra-heavy industry that outputs commodities. We're great at light industry, or specialised heavy industry, which includes a lot of electronics. You're correct on inflexibility.

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fooker 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Can you give some specific examples of what light industry we are great at?

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JumpCrisscross 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Pharmaceuticals, medical devices and craft food and beverage products come to mind. Guns and ammo, too.

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giantg2 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, even if we can produce them now, we don't have the pipeline to keep them running - steel for guns comes from other countries, we don't have a primary lead smelter in the country, medical devices that rely on electronics rely on foreign components, etc. The only reason pharma can operate here is because of the regulations, and even then many components chemicals are sourced internationally.

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fooker 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

We don't even produce things like bolts, screws, and springs.

If we suddenly had to, it would take billions of dollars and several months to spin up any real capacity.

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hypeatei 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A quarter of steel used in the U.S. is imported, and of that quarter, 40% comes from Mexico and Canada; very little comes from China[0]. So, not only does your point fall flat, the people we get steel from are our neighbors so it'd make sense to not sour with relationships with them like the current admin is doing with chaotic trade policy and invasion threats.

I really don't understand the FUD around US manufacturing capability, you'd essentially need to craft the greatest conspiracy ever to think that every politician, defense agency, intelligence agency, etc. is asleep at the wheel to not recognize this supposed threat and do nothing about it.

0: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/where-does-us-ge...

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fooker 5 hours ago | parent [-]

> 40% comes from Mexico and Canada

Where do you think this originates from?

China ships a rather large amount of stuff to these countries to take advantage of the trade agreements. So much that you can find satellite images of large yards in Mexico that are used for this purpose with barely any effort.

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hypeatei 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Okay, let's assume most of their steel is Chinese (I have my doubts because, yet again, more conspiracies), we only import a quarter of the steel we use. That would hurt losing it overnight, sure, but we wouldn't be absolutely toast like the autarkists are saying.

These takes are much more doomer than I'm willing to bet the supporters of "bring everything back" realize. Do you have no faith in the US economy / populace adapting to a hypothetical all out war with China?

	▲	giantg2 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I have a feeling that China doesn't export much steel. They more likely export their steel in the form of finished products.