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dpark 2 hours ago

Air traffic (and ground traffic) control are not simple problems. La Guardia has 350k aircraft operations (takeoffs and landings) every year. 1000/day. Peak traffic is almost certainly more than 1 plane every minute. Runways are always in use and the idea that some simple software will solve all the safety problems is not grounded in reality.

PieTime 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This isn’t hypothetical, this system just exists in other countries. Digital systems can confirm flight instruction from ATC with zero radio communication.

_moof an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Changing the delivery method doesn't do anything to solve the problem of a controller sending an instruction that creates a hazard.

dpark an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I’m not saying we couldn’t move more into automation. What I’m saying is that doing so will not solve all of our air/ground control problems. We still have human pilots and humans driving vehicles on the ground. Switching from humans directing landings to machines might improve some things but will not solve for all (and probably not most) risks.

Literally the crash here was caused by a fire truck entering the runway.

clint an hour ago | parent [-]

The ATC told them to enter the runway because they were confused or distracted due t overwork.

No one here or anywhere is saying automation would solve or be able to handle everything that human operators handle, that's an argument you invented that no one is making.

People are saying automation could handle a significant portion of the routine things allowing humans to handle the more complex/finicky issues.

Even if automation could handle 10% of the most common situations it would be a huge boon. In reality its probably closer to 50%.

cogman10 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

There's unfortunately an alertness problem WRT automated systems.

If the reason you have the human there is to handle the unusual cases, you run the real risk that they just aren't paying attention at critical moments when they need to pay attention.

It's pretty similar to the problem with L3 autonomous driving.

Probably the sweet spot is automation which makes clear the current set of instructions on the airport which also red flags when a dangerous scenario is created. I believe that already exists, but it's software that was last written in 1995 or so.

Regardless, before any sort of new automation could be deployed, we need slack for the ATC to be able to adopt a new system. That's the biggest pressing problem. We could create the perfect software for ATC, but if the current air traffic controllers are all working overtime and doing a job designed for 3 people rather than one, they simply won't have the time to explore and understand that new system. It'll get in the way rather than solve a problem. More money is part of the solution here, but we also need a revamped ATC training program which can help to fill the current hole.

dpark 32 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> The ATC told them to enter the runway because they were confused or distracted due t overwork.

Very possibly. It will be interesting what comes from the investigation.

> No one here or anywhere is saying automation would solve or be able to handle everything that human operators handle, that's an argument you invented that no one is making.

I’m asking if it would have solved even the current situation. The truck presumably saw the red light, and was asking to cross. Would traffic control have said no if more had been automated and if so, what automation would fix this? Unless we are supposing the truck would be autonomously driven and refuse to proceed when planes are landing, in which case, maybe, though that’s not really ATC automation anymore.

infinitewars 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> more than 1 plane every minute

Software routinely solves database coordination problems with millions of users per second.

infinitewars 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm pretty sure the amount of data isn't the problem here. Maybe it's the number of corner cases? You would still want some human-in-the loop with quality UI for ATC.

matthewkayin an hour ago | parent [-]

There are plenty of stories of ATC helping to guide pilots back to the ground after an engine failure or after a student pilot had their instructor pass out on them or something like that.

Even if most of the work is routine, you definitely still want a human in the loop.

jrockway an hour ago | parent [-]

It's worth pointing out that plenty of pilots take off and land safely at uncontrolled airports. ATC is a throughput optimization; the finite amount of airspace can have more aircraft movements if the movements are centrally coordinated. It feels like we are nearing the breaking point of this optimization, however, and it's probably worth looking for something better (or saying no to scheduling more flights).

nradov 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

The FAA already does issue temporary ground stops for IFR flights when ATC capacity is saturated. This acts as a limit on airlines scheduling more flights, although the feedback loops are long and not always effective. The FAA NextGen system should improve this somewhat.

https://www.faa.gov/nextgen

PunchyHamster an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

with extremely controlled conditions. There is no fog in database, nor fallible humans involved, What an ignorant response

yifanl an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In a digitized environment. We cannot yet simulate the real world.

mongol 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

True. But to avoid 1 minute unavailability per year requires 99.9999 % availability

verelo an hour ago | parent [-]

Like any scale system, degrade the experience. Use radio if the more advanced systems are unavailable?

glitchc 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yup, by having backup runways.

jjmarr 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A third runway for Heathrow was formally proposed in 2007 and is projected for completion in 2040. This is an airport so overburdened people are buying and trading slots.

This isn't a Kubernetes cluster where you can add VMs in 30 seconds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_Heathrow_Airport

dpark 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And no fire trucks crossing the runways.

PunchyHamster an hour ago | parent [-]

....they need to get to fucking fire

....if they go around kilometer of the runway the fire will turn into bigger fire

singleshot_ an hour ago | parent [-]

Two trucks

johnbarron 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>> Software routinely solves database coordination problems with millions of users per second.

A naive view that confuses the map with the territory.

While in a database state you write a row and reality updates atomically....for aircraft they exist in a physical world where your model lives with lag, noise, and lossy sensors, and that world keeps moving whether your software is watching or not. Failed database transactions roll back, a landing clearance issued against stale state does not. The hard problem in ATC is not coordination logic but physical objects with momentum, human agency, and failure modes that do not respect your consistency model.

mvdtnz 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No one said it was simple. You're tilting at windmills.

dpark 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Literally called it “low hanging fruit”.

slg an hour ago | parent [-]

But context is important. "Low-hanging fruit" doesn't mean the solution is "easy" in a vacuum, it just means this specific aspect is the easiest and/or most obvious place to start attacking a problem.

Or to stick with the language of the analogy, every fruit tree has some fruit that is lower than the others. That doesn't mean all "low-hanging fruit" is within arm's reach of the ground, some fruit just doesn't require as big of a ladder as other fruit.

This comment isn't a judgment of this specific case. I don't know enough about ATC to have any confidence in my opinion on the viability of replacing humans with software.

PLenz 41 minutes ago | parent [-]

That goal post moved so fast it made a whooshing noise as it passed

slg 24 minutes ago | parent [-]

I think you're mistaken. That whooshing sound must have been my comment flying over your head.

That was my first comment in this thread, so there was no established goal to change. My sole goal was to clarify the meaning of an idiom that the comment I was replying to was misstating.

I even included a disclaimer that "This comment isn't a judgment of this specific case", so I don't know how you could have received it as such.

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
CamperBob2 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

JohnMakin 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

One jet landing every minute, coordinating the airspace for miles around the airport, along with coordinating non-landing traffic (helicopters, small craft), while making sure these (already heavily automated) flight systems dont get confused and kill several hundred people sounds easy to you, along with keeping everything on time and schedule?

Go write it then.

estearum 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

And I think most critically: being able to adapt all of this on the fly when invariably something goes off-plan.

CamperBob2 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Aviation is over 100 years old. Everything that can possibly happen in ATC has either already happened or can reasonably be anticipated.

It's stupid, wasteful, and ultimately dangerous to make a human do a machine's job.

thomascountz 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You say it “…sounds like a simple problem,” and sure, if you think this is a computer problem, it sounds simple. But if all you’re getting back is indignant sputtering, that’s your cue to explain why it’s simple—explaining something simple shouldn't be hard. What do you actually know?

It takes all of two minutes of Wikipedia reading for me to understand why this isn’t simple; why it's actually extremely not simple! If you ignore the incumbency, the regulations, the training requirements, the retrofitting, the verification, the international coordination, and the existing unfathomably reliable systems built out of past tragedies, then sure, it’s "simple". But then, if you're ignoring those things, you’re not really solving the problem, are you?

CamperBob2 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If you ignore the incumbency, the regulations, the training requirements, the retrofitting, the verification, the international coordination, and the existing unfathomably reliable systems built out of past tragedies, then sure, it’s "simple".

Those are excuses and encumbrances, not reasons. If they are so important, it leads to a question: what existing automated systems can we improve by adding similar constraints?

If these are just "excuses" and not "reasons," then explain how you have determined them as such.

I would like to say, "Because knowledgeable people have explained the difference to me." But again, this has come up before, and no explanations are ever provided. Only vague, reactionary hand-waving, assuring me that humans -- presumably not the same ones who just directed a fire truck and an aircraft onto the same active runway, but humans nevertheless -- are vital for safety in ATC, because for reasons such as and therefore.

There you are doing it in order to avoid engaging with the substance of what people are saying.

There is no substance in the replies. There never is. Only unanchored FUD.

estearum an hour ago | parent [-]

The only difference between an excuse and a reason is the designator's belief as to the validity of the reason provided. You have already said you do not have the expertise required to assess validity, yet here you are doing it in order to avoid engaging with the substance of what people are saying.

If these are just "excuses" and not "reasons," then explain how you have determined them as such.

estearum 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Aviation is over 100 years old. Everything that can possibly happen in ATC has either already happened or can reasonably be anticipated.

This is just not how complex systems work. N of 1 events happen regularly, which is exactly what makes them challenging.

You simply asserting every scenario has been seen before does not actually make it so.

CamperBob2 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

while making sure these (already heavily automated) flight systems dont get confused and kill several hundred people

Confusion is indeed a common side effect of a job done halfway.

Replying: I'm really confused at the point you're trying to make - you declared yourself not an expert in this field, while loudly declaring it's so easy to automate.

Because we've already done harder things. 1000 takeoffs and landings per day equals a trillion machine cycles between events... on the phone in your pocket. It is an extraordinary claim, requiring extraordinary proof, to say that this task isn't suitable for automation.

Why don't you do it then? What am I missing?

I'm not qualified to do it, I didn't say I was, and in any event, I don't work for free. I'm asking for concrete reasons why it's not feasible. Spoiler: there are no reasons, only excuses.

The concrete reason your ideas won’t work is you don’t have any.

It's not my job to explain how to do it, it's your job to explain why it can't or shouldn't be done. The extraordinary claim is yours, not mine.

Remember how we installed traffic lights all over the roads and now car crashes never happen any more at intersections? Truly automation solves all problems.

Hard to respond to an argument of this quality, at least without getting flagged or worse.

estearum 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> I'm asking for concrete reasons why it's not feasible. Spoiler: there are no reasons, only excuses.

It sounds like you're not asking anything at all

Just to play it out a bit, are you imagining that a pilot would be reporting a mechanical failure upon descent into busy airspace to some type of like AI voice agent, who will then orchestrate other aircraft out of the way (and not into each other) while also coaching the crippled aircraft out of the sky?

Are you imagining some vast simplification that obviates the need for such capability? Because that doesn't seem simple at all to me.

JohnMakin 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm really confused at the point you're trying to make - you declared yourself not an expert in this field, while loudly declaring it's so easy to automate. Why don't you do it then? What am I missing?

dpark 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Why don't you do it then? What am I missing?

I know this was rhetorical but the obvious answer is a complete lack of any actual ideas. “Just automate it” is a common refrain from people who don’t know how to fix the actual issues with any domain.

Remember how we installed traffic lights all over the roads and now car crashes never happen any more at intersections? Truly automation solves all problems.

dpark an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

To repeatedly declare something simple to fix, but then have no idea how to fix it, and indeed to declare oneself unqualified to fix it, is kind of an astounding level of hubris.

> I'm asking for concrete reasons why it's not feasible.

The concrete reason your ideas won’t work is you don’t have any.

HoldOnAMinute 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I worked in aviation in the late 1990s and automating ATC is all they could talk about. So, that's almost 30 years of talking and no action.

CamperBob2 2 hours ago | parent [-]

That's because it's a political problem, and not a technical problem. It could have been done then, and it can be done now.

Just curious: how many people in this thread know what SAGE was? A $5 Arduino has more computing power than the whole SAGE network. This isn't 1958, so we don't need the 'Semi' part of 'Semi-Automatic Ground Environment' anymore.

dpark 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Every time I've asked what's so hard about automating ATC

Why don’t you describe the hypothetical automation you believe would solve the problems then?

My hunch is that either your ideas are already implemented (like GP post who said they need to add red lights at the runway instances, except yeah, they do have that), or they are just bad.

> indignant sputtering and patronizing hand-waving.

Preemptively insulting everyone who might respond to you certainly looks like you’re asking for a real conversation. :|

Your accusation of “patronizing hand-waving” is especially off base considering you literally proposed nothing except “automating”. Hand waving indeed.

felipellrocha an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Hehehehe, grounded.