| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 6 hours ago |
| Layoffs because of AI make no sense to me. Imagine you own a company that is paid to deliver packages. You use horses and differentiate by delivering quicker than everyone else. Then cars are invented and everyone starts delivering packages faster. In what world does a healthy growing business react to this by laying off couriers "in a pivot to automotive transportation". Would a healthy business not switch everyone to driving cars and deliver even more packages? |
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| ▲ | mbesto 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > Layoffs because of AI make no sense to me. That's because these layoffs aren't about AI. They're about firms that overhired and Wall St is (finally) having a sobering moment of their (profit) growth potential. |
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| ▲ | estimator7292 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | This line has been repeated ad nauseum for years at this point. How long does a "sobering moment" last? Two years? Five? Ten? | | |
| ▲ | oblio an hour ago | parent [-] | | The beating will continue until morale improves. On a more serious note, at this rate, probably 10 years. I guess it's similar to drinking. You can get drunk in 10 minutes and be hung over for much longer than that. It turns out that org charts are VERY resistant to letting people go, even when the executives push very hard. |
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| ▲ | jarjoura 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It’s not that they believe AI tools are replacing workers, it’s using the new free cash flow allows them to invest in AI. They are betting that their AI business will be profitable, and need to cut costs to invest in it. |
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| ▲ | neonstatic 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > They are betting that their AI business will be profitable, and need to cut costs to invest in it. I think AI is a wonderful excuse for many. You can now lay off as many people as you want without standing out in a negative way. "Everyone is doing it" and "everyone knows why it's happening". | |
| ▲ | themafia 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > are betting that their AI business will be profitable It could be. The idea that a business built on this framework won't immediately be picked apart by every competitor under the sun is entirely beyond me. > and need to cut costs to invest in it. If I'm right then this is just slashing your own throat so you can be the first to the bottom. |
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| ▲ | laughing_man 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It makes quite a bit of sense if the size of your market doesn't expand along with the new technology and you don't have a competitive advantage. Just because you have the capability to deliver more packages doesn't necessarily mean you'll have customers willing to pay you to deliver more packages. |
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| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > your market doesn't expand along with the new technology and you don't have a competitive advantage. a.k.a the real reason for the layoffs. The underlying business is stagnant and unable to take advantage of the additional resources. Strong businesses aim to grow revenue. Struggling businesses aim to cut costs. |
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| ▲ | jjmarr an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > In what world does a healthy growing business react to this by laying off couriers "in a pivot to automotive transportation". Millions of horses got shipped to the glue factory. And many more farriers and stablemasters got laid off. |
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| ▲ | lelanthran 30 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| In your analogy they aren't laying off the drivers, they laying off the horses. Iow, humans are the horses in this analogy. |
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| ▲ | Refreeze5224 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You're mixing up what AI is for compared to horses and cars. Horses/cars enable people to be more efficient. AI enables companies to fire people. Horses/cars improve productivity. AI reduces payroll costs. That's the whole game here. |
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| ▲ | dozerly 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | The assumption behind this comment is that AI is more productive than Human + AI at this point in time, and I don’t think we’ve seen that be true yet. | | |
| ▲ | Refreeze5224 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | No, the assumption is that companies are more interested in cutting labor costs than productivity. Even if you screw up and need to hire back 50% of those you fired, you still cut the labor costs of the 50% still fired. And you can pretend to be a cool, thought-leading, "AI-native" company, which might be enough to juice your share price enough to offset any actual productivity loss. Capital will always be in opposition to the cost of labor and want to make it as close to zero as possible, and AI is a plausible story for attempting that, regardless of the reality of AI efficiency. | | |
| ▲ | SoftTalker 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Henry Ford (allegedly a Capitalist) thought he should pay his employees enough that they could afford to buy the cars his company produced. Businesses ultimately need customers. In a world where AI does all the work, there will be no buyers. | | |
| ▲ | opo an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | It is amazing how that bit of corporate PR is still being quoted over 100 years later. In reality, Ford had huge turnover problems with his workers - one estimate is over 370% annual turnover. One way to help prevent turnover is to pay more, and it solved the problem. (Even so, the base pay was still actually $2.30 and to get the extra $2.70 you had to abstain from alcohol, keep your home clean, etc.) https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/henry-ford-implements-5... | |
| ▲ | heavyset_go 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Read Citigroup's plutonomy paper: https://www.sourcewatch.org/images/b/bc/CITIGROUP-MARCH-5-20... The strategy for institutional investors is to invest in servicing the needs of the already rich, at the expense of investing in companies that serve working people. The former is much more profitable than the latter, and the latter is becoming less profitable over time. |
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| ▲ | SonOfKyuss 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | No the assumption behind the statement and many others on this topic is not AI is more productive than Human + AI, it’s that 9 (or 8 or 6) humans + AI is more productive than 10 humans. No one is suggesting getting rid of all workers, but many are saying they can get rid of a significant percentage of them. It remains to be seen if that ends up being true but it is fundamentally different from what you are describing |
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| ▲ | itomato 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They just announced GA of agentic assignees. It suggests a year or more of maturation. Rovo Dev has already been a thing. The Java products are almost EOL. They have already been assigning JAC tickets to Rovo and $TEAM is down. What else should be done with the surplus headcount? |
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| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | My point exactly. This implies atlassian is not a healthy growing business, but a stagnant or even shrinking one. Layoffs have little to do with AI, and more akin to fuel being jettisoned to stay in the air longer. | | |
| ▲ | recursive 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Must a business grow to be healthy? What about stability and longevity? | |
| ▲ | itomato 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Prioritization and workforce realignment. Old hat. Replacing headcount with technology? Also old hat. If the cuts ate into the good parts of the business, I will worry. I doubt that happened. |
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| ▲ | jayd16 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Can someone fix the damn Slack plugin so it stops asking me to turn it on every time someone posts a Jira link? I have dozens of messages from the plugin saying "Got it! Will not ask you again." | |
| ▲ | stingraycharles 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Are you making the argument that Atlassian’s products are basically done, no more development needed? | | |
| ▲ | itomato 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The Java ones have been done since version 6 or so. We’re up to what, 11? Stagnant, yes. Mature also. | |
| ▲ | gib444 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Right! There is more performance to be taken away yet! They're nearly there but plenty is left. Jira can be made "let's go brew coffee and come back" slow if the really tried |
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| ▲ | NoPicklez 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| In a world where you don't need 10 horses to do the job of 5 cars, because your business doesn't have a market for 10 cars. |
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| ▲ | MeetingsBrowser 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Then you are not laying off because of cars. You are laying off because there is no market for what you are selling and you are not able to find new customers. In other words, the business is not doing well | | |
| ▲ | NoPicklez 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'm not saying Atlassian is or isn't doing well, but your market isn't going to infinitely expand, nor expand at the rate you need to keep up with your costs. If you build cars and you replace people with robots, you might fire those people because those robots allow you to keep up with demand with less people. Your business is doing fine and well but you just need less people to do the same output. Better yet those robots might even produce more than what your demand is and therefore even if demand increases your ability to supply with less people still exists. Businesses will always look to do the same output or more with less cost irrespective of whether the company is doing well or not. This is why we have also seen "AI layoffs" across companies that have had very good financial positions or even record sales. The proof is in the pudding if AI actually improves productivity of those left over to justify it. But sometimes simple analogies can be rebutted by other simple analogies. |
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| ▲ | falcor84 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You need a very different skill set and culture for driving and maintaining cars than for driving and maintaining horses. I honestly think that for big changes like this (if you are willing to accept that AI is such), looking at it from the portfolio management angle, it makes more sense to just nuke the current operation and start a greenfield one. |
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| ▲ | selcuka 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > it makes more sense to just nuke the current operation and start a greenfield one Why? What was wrong with the 1600 people they sacked? Do they have a magical 1600-person hire pool with the AI skills they want? | |
| ▲ | mempko 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Senior engineers have been 'vibe coding' for over a decade before AI. Think what they do, they look at PRs all day and comment. Magically the code change reflecting their comments. It's the same thing now but machines are doing it, not humans. The issue is that junior engineers have no experience working like senior engineers. The reality is that it's not that hard to work in this way. There is no excuse for software companies not being able to re-train their more junior engineers to work this way. | | |
| ▲ | falcor84 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's a very nice analogy. I agree and thinking about my previous comment, I suppose I just lashed out because I really dislike Jira the product and don't think that it can be salvaged, but I don't have anything against the engineers working there, and agree that they can be mentored and reassigned to a product where they'd be able to create something good. |
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| ▲ | dfxm12 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It's more about looking good for Wall Street. For example, Block was just rewarded for a similar move: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/block-stock-explodes-jack-dor... |