| ▲ | Eddy_Viscosity2 6 hours ago |
| Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me. |
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| ▲ | reactordev 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Coming from groups that just pickup busses of people to murder, I wouldn’t be so sure that firing back at the US would be out of the question. |
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| ▲ | nessbot 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Murdering buses of people doesn't bring the full force of the US military on them. The difference is the risk not the depravity. | | |
| ▲ | p-e-w 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This is the answer. The cartels would have to be insane to poke that particular bear. They would get crushed like a bug. IIRC they murdered a single US undercover officer in the 90s and the retaliation was so bad that they themselves handed over the perpetrators. | | |
| ▲ | ChrisMarshallNY 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > They would get crushed like a bug. Much as I despise them, I'm not so sure that would be the case. I seem to remember folks saying the same about the Taliban, and the cartels have a lot more money and high-tech kit, than the Taliban. Asymmetric warfare is a tough gig, on all sides. | | |
| ▲ | janalsncm 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don’t think the technology matters nearly as much as the asymmetry. Iraq had better technology than the Taliban and their military didn’t last a week. | | |
| ▲ | ChrisMarshallNY 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | True enough, but the cartels are also experts at running what is basically guerrilla warfare, against each other. Not sure if the Mexican Army has ever tried to take them on. A lot of cartel soldiers come from the army. |
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| ▲ | BoredPositron 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You are right rationality is their strongest character trait. | | |
| ▲ | 542354234235 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | How are they not rational? Violence is a tool. They operate an illegal business so they can’t sue other parties for breach of contract. They can't call the police if they are robbed or file an insurance claim for what was taken. Even the over-the-top violence has a rationale. They aren't punishing the victims as much as they are attempting to broadcast that there is a higher price to be paid than any gain from giving information, to reduce their future losses and enforcement efforts. It isn’t moral or ethical, but I wouldn’t say it is irrational. | | |
| ▲ | mikkupikku 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Lots of organized crime around the world manages to operate without cutting all the limbs off somebody then arranging them like flowers in a "vase" made out of the poor soul's ribcage. The cartels take violence far beyond what is pragmatically necessary. Their system of crime breeds excessive violence and insanity. | | |
| ▲ | AlotOfReading an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | This stuff mostly followed after the zetas. It was a very deliberate strategy to compete in a hostile landscape that others eventually copied to survive. | |
| ▲ | xkcd-sucks an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Marketing, if you don't know the answer it's always marketing |
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| ▲ | coolhand2120 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > How are they not rational? It's the meth. |
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| ▲ | the_sleaze_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The cartels are incredibly rational - what they lack are morals and ethics | |
| ▲ | colechristensen 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's a business not an ideology. | |
| ▲ | KPGv2 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Do you have much evidence of them behaving irrationally? | |
| ▲ | mmh0000 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I would recommend reading the Freakinomics book or listen to their podcasts on drugs. TL;DR: drug cartels are run like businesses. They are very rational. But, unlike your boss, their boss can also shoot you in the face if you annoy them too much |
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| ▲ | Noaidi 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | How did that full force of the US military work out in Vietnam? | | |
| ▲ | antonymoose 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Millions of dead Vietnamese. In any case that was a war against a hardened, experienced, determined enemy fighting for its freedom from any form of colonial occupation, both as a formal military and as an insurgent force in South Vietnam. I scarcely think the Mexican population would rise up in defense of the cartels here. | | |
| ▲ | boringg 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think a lot of people would be cheering on the destruction of the cartels. | | |
| ▲ | ryandrake 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They'd probably quickly stop cheering as their own homes and families were destroyed as collateral damage, which is what would happen if the "full force of the US military" were deployed against the cartels. | | |
| ▲ | TitaRusell 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The last time America invaded Mexico City it created martyrs. It's a fascinating story that they do not teach at US highschools lol. |
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| ▲ | colechristensen 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The destruction of cartels would involve careful policing and corruption controls, the best American administrations have been bad at this. The worst... can barely put its pants on much less dismantle foreign organized crime. You can't shoot a missile at a cartel and poof it's just gone. |
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| ▲ | adolph 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | A non-aligned population will look out for their own interests and are aware that the attention of the US is temporary but the cuadillismo that lead to cartels are a durable cultural artifact. The Battle of Culiacán, also known locally as the Culiacanazo and Black
Thursday, was a failed attempt to capture Ovidio Guzmán López, son of Sinaloa
Cartel kingpin Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, who was wanted in the United States
for drug trafficking.
Around 700 cartel gunmen began to attack civilian, government and military
targets around the city, despite orders from Ovidio sent at security forces'
request. Massive towers of smoke could be seen rising from burning cars and
vehicles. The cartels were well-equipped, with improvised armored vehicles,
bulletproof vests, .50 caliber (12.7 mm) rifles, rocket launchers, grenade
launchers and heavy machine guns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culiac%C3%A1n |
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| ▲ | randallsquared 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It was never used, there. | |
| ▲ | kgermino 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Pretty badly for both sides | |
| ▲ | boringg 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don't really think you thought through that one. It sounds like what your saying is that the Vietnamese won and thats the outcome that matters. It does matter but that isn't the issue - it is the cost that everyone is talking about: the amount of destruction that was brought upon the country and people was terrible. |
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| ▲ | infecto 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The distinction is those are cases where they are murdering Mexican citizens. If a cartel murdered a bus of people in America I suspect most any administration would retaliate in some form. | | |
| ▲ | reactordev 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Dude, Americans are getting kidnapped and murdered in Mexico all the time. The cartels don’t care your nationality. If the administration strikes cartels first, they may find it egregious enough to do what they refused to do in the past… I don’t rule out any options when it comes to murderous organizations. *EDIT*
This isn’t me saying don’t go to Mexico or that Mexico is unsafe either. Out of the tourists that visit from America, 0.001% see violence or are kidnapped or anything negative. If anything it would be petty theft near cruise ports and resort towns that would be the biggest culprit of crime for Americans. | | |
| ▲ | infecto 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | “Dude”, murdering a us citizen in Mexico is different than murdering an entire bus of people on US soil. You say it’s happening all the time but then say it’s .01%. Looked it up myself, maybe 40 to 300 people annually. Hard to discern how many of those are pure tourism vs visiting family. I suspect you have a greater risk visiting family, especially if it’s a border town. 13.5mm US citizens visit d Mexico in 2024 so .00002% got kidnapped. I bet that number is even lower when you separate pure tourism vs dual nationals or similar going back home to visit. The point is any action taken on US soil in a large capacity would be seen as an attack by any administration. | | | |
| ▲ | matwood 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Of course things happen sometimes. But, the cartels typically do not want to mess with Americans, particularly in tourist areas, because that brings heat they don't want. It's literally bad for business. | |
| ▲ | _heimdall 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think the GP was referring to buses on US soil rather than Americans on buses in Mexico. | | |
| ▲ | reactordev 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Cartels only strike their own on US soil… | | |
| ▲ | infecto 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | You’re missing the point. Absolutely cartel violence impacts all types of people in the US and Mexico but large scale brutal violence that is usually saved for Mexico since unfortunately the Mexican federal government does not have control in most of the regions. There is a huge difference between a one off gang killing in the US and someone taking a whole grey hound bus and burying the bodies in the desert. | | |
| ▲ | reactordev 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Which is why I bring up their affinity for going after busses of people, because they have, in Mexico… The world does not stop at the Us border. |
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| ▲ | jghn 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Dude, Americans are getting kidnapped and murdered in Mexico all the time Dude, can you put some numbers with a citation behind that? Then we can extrapolate a risk ratio and see if it really merits the "all the time" claim. |
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| ▲ | resters 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | who are we (the US)? People who wantonly murder people on fishing boats, etc. | | |
| ▲ | reactordev 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I’m not saying our cartel is any better… | | |
| ▲ | ultrarunner 42 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Your use of "our" makes me wonder if the people of Mexico see the drug cartels as "theirs". | | |
| ▲ | reactordev 37 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Merely pointing out that the US administration is operating like a cartel now a days. I doubt Mexicans see the Mexican cartels as “theirs” in the same way. Cartels have only been interested in paying off politicians and (as far as I’m aware) weren’t interested in being politicians. However, our politicians here… would LOVE to be Cartel members and make millions it seems. Because they definitely don’t give a shit about law and order. |
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| ▲ | xtracto 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is different. See, Drug cartels over here operate with the blessing and favor of our president. They are tightly connected. If a cartel dared to ground a US flight. The US government would have a "free pass" to break all hell loose in Mexico, and Sheinbaum wouldn't have a way to stop it. She doesn't want that in any way, so the message to the cartel bosses would be to be very careful in that respect. Sure, there have been US citizens killed within Mexico here and there, but those can easily be attributed to local violence. And as retribution, Mexican government sends a couple of wanted criminals to the US. | | |
| ▲ | ekidd 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah, if a cartel actually used anti-aircraft weapons on a US passenger plane in US airspace? It wouldn't even matter if MAGA or the Democrats were in charge. The US would collectively lose its shit and spend the next 10 years and several trillion dollars retaliating against the cartels. The media would be ecstatic, because it would give them a decade of story arcs, starting with "our brave troops in uniform" all the way through to covering the eventual quagmire and anti-war protests. By year 6-8, editorial columnists would be writing columns reconsidering their initial support for the war. Please, let's not do this. |
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| ▲ | jmatthiass 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Good point. I guess it depends on the force, size, and especially effectiveness of any potential strikes. (i.e. How cornered a cartel might feel and how much flexing an outsized response might stand to gain them.) |
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| ▲ | bpodgursky 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yes that might be the high-level logic, but if you give a MANPAD to a 19 year old sicario on meth, accidents do happen. |
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| ▲ | philistine 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If that aircraft held a person they wanted dead, I would not put it past them. |
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| ▲ | mattmaroon 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Unless we start bombing them first. That’s not hard to imagine these days. |
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| ▲ | ibejoeb 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not hard to imagine these days? Wouldn't you hope for an intervention if it were known that a hostile, state-level military planned to down civilian aircraft? | | |
| ▲ | _joel 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | What happened after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 ? | | |
| ▲ | ibejoeb 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I can't read your mind. | |
| ▲ | KPGv2 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I had a quick check, and there were zero Americans on board this Malaysian aircraft shot down by a nuclear power over Ukraine, so I don't know how you think it's relevant to an American aircraft full of Americans being shot down in American airspace by cartels immediately on the other side of the American border. EDIT: Unless you think Malaysia not bombing the Kremlin in retribution is somehow indicative of how America would respond to the situation we're actually talking about. |
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| ▲ | mothballed 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Unless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s] that is so existential that such action wouldn't be considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat. A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities regardless of its expected effectiveness. |
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| ▲ | estearum 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Mistakes happen though |