| ▲ | caycep 2 hours ago |
| All this work is impressive, but I'd rather have better trains |
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| ▲ | scoofy 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| As someone who lives in the Bay Area we already have trains, and they're literally past the point of bankruptcy because they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations, (2) don't actually make people pay at all, and (3) don't actually enforce any quality of life concerns short of breaking up literal fights. All of this creates negative synergies that pushes a huge, mostly silent segment of the potential ridership away from these systems. So many people advocate for public transit, but are unwilling to deal with the current market tradeoffs and decisions people are making on the ground. As long as that keeps happening, expect modes of transit -- like Waymo -- that deliver the level of service that they promise to keep exceeding expectations. I've spent my entire adult life advocating for transportation alternatives, and at every turn in America, the vast majority of other transit advocates just expect people to be okay with anti-social behavior going completely unenforced, and expecting "good citizens" to keep paying when the expected value for any rational person is to engage in freeloading. Then they point to "enforcing the fare box" as a tradeoff between money to collect vs cost of enforcement, when the actually tradeoff is the signalling to every anti-social actor in the system that they can do whatever they want without any consequences. I currently only see a future in bike-share, because it's the only system that actually delivers on what it promises. |
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| ▲ | doctoboggan an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations Why do you expect them to make money? Roads don't make money and no one thinks to complain about that. One of the purposes of government is to make investment in things that have more nebulous returns. Moving more people to public transit makes better cities, healthier and happier citizens, stronger communities, and lets us save money on road infrastructure. | | |
| ▲ | scoofy an hour ago | parent [-] | | >Why do you expect them to make money? I don't. That's why I said "variable cost of operations." If a system doesn't generate enough revenue to cover the variable costs of operation, then every single new passenger drives the system closer to bankruptcy. The more "successful" the system is -- the more people depend on it -- the more likely it is to fail if anything happens to the underlying funding source, like a regular old local recession. This simple policy decision can create a downward economic spiral when a recession leads to service cuts, which leads to people unable to get to work reliably, which creates more economic pain, which leads to a bigger recession... rinse/repeat. This is why a public transit system should cover variable costs so that a successful system can grow -- and shrink -- sustainably. When you aren't growing sustainably, you open yourself up to the whims of the business cycle literally destroying your transit system. It's literally happening right now with SF MUNI, where we've had so many funding problems, that they've consolidated bus lines. I use the 38R, and it's become extremely busy. These busses are getting so packed that people don't want to use them, but the point is they can't expand service because each expansion loses them more money, again, because the system doesn't actually cover those variable costs. The public should be 100% completely covering the fixed capital costs of the system. Ideally, while there is a bit of wiggle room, the ridership should be 100% be covering the variable capital costs. That way the system can expand when it's successful, and contract when it's less popular. Right now in the Bay Area, you have the worst of both worlds, you have an underutilized system with absolutely spiraling costs, simply because there is zero connection between "people actually wanting to use the system" and "where the money comes from." |
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| ▲ | martinald 42 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You're definitely right on (2) and (3). I've used many transit systems across the world (including TransMilenio in Bogota and other latam countries "renowned" for crime) and I have never felt as unsafe as I have using transit in the SFBA. Even standing at bus stops draws a lot of attention from people suffering with serious addiction/mental health problems. 1) is a bit simplistic though. I don't know of any European system that would cover even operating costs out of fare/commercial revenue. Potentially the London Underground - but not London buses. UK National Rail had higher success rates The better way to look at it imo is looking at the economic loss as well of congestion/abandoned commutes. To do a ridiculous hypothetical, London would collapse entirely if it didn't have transit. Perhaps 30-40% of inner london could commute by car (or walk/bike), so the economic benefit of that variable transit cost is in the hundreds of billions a year (compared to a small subsidy). It's not the same in SFBA so I guess it's far easier to just "write off" transit like that, it is theoretically possible (though you'd probably get some quite extreme additional congestion on the freeways as even that small % moving to cars would have an outsized impact on additional congestion). | |
| ▲ | caycep 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Well then invest in those things, then. It would probably cost less than the amount they're spending to make a Waymo World Model. | | |
| ▲ | scoofy 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Lighting money on fire by funding an extremely expensive system that most people don't want to use is not an "investment." It's just a good way to make everyone much poorer and worse off than if we'd done nothing. The only way to change things is to convince the electorate that we actually do need rules and enforcement and a sustainable transportation system. This isn't just happening in America. Train systems are in rough shape in the UK and Germany too. Ebike shares are a much more sustainable system with a much lower cost, and achieve about 90% of the level of service in temperate regions of the country. Even the ski-lift guy in this thread has a much more reasonable approach to public transit, because they actually have extremely low cost for the level of service they provide. Their only real shortcoming is they they don't handle peak demand well, and are not flexible enough to handle their own success. | | |
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| ▲ | caycep an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Maybe not BART but the new Caltrain electrification program seems to be a success and ridership and revenue are up | | | |
| ▲ | 35 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | servo_sausage an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Trains need well behaved people, otherwise they are shit. I don't want to hear tiktok or full volume soap operas blasting at some deaf mouth breather. I don't want to be near loud chewing of smelly leftovers. I don't want to be begged for money, or interact with high or psychotic people. The current culture doesn't allow enforcement of social behaviour: so public transport will always be a miserable containment vessel for the least functional, and everyone with sense avoids the whole thing. |
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| ▲ | neysofu an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > some deaf mouth breather I quite agree with the overall point but can we leave this kind of discourse on X, please? It doesn't add much, it just feels caustic for effect and engagement farming. | |
| ▲ | raincole 22 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Roads (cars) need well behave people too. The only way cars filter some of the out is by the price. |
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| ▲ | chufucious 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Me too but given our extensive car brain culture, Waymo is an amazing step to getting less drivers & cars off the road, and to further cement future generations not ever needing to drive or own cars |
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| ▲ | andoando 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ski lifts man, ski lifts all over the city |
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| ▲ | xnx 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Isn't a vehicle that goes from anywhere to anywhere on your own schedule, safely, privately, cleanly, and without billions in subsidies better? |
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| ▲ | anigbrowl 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't think individual vehicles can ever achieve the same envirnmental economies of scale as trains. Certainly they're far more convenient (especially for short-haul journeys) but I also think they're somewhat alienating, in that they're engineering humans out of the loop completely which contributes to social atomization. | | |
| ▲ | xnx 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > I don't think individual vehicles can ever achieve the same envirnmental economies of scale as trains. I think you'd be surprised. Look at the difference in cost per passenger mile. |
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| ▲ | appreciatorBus 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Trains only require subsidies in a world where human & robot cars are subsidized. As soon as a mode of transport actually has to compete in a market for scarce & valuable land to operate on, trains and other forms of transit (publicly or privately owned) win every time. | |
| ▲ | kentiko an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Cars don't work in dense places. | |
| ▲ | g947o 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Not necessarily, and your premise is incorrect. | |
| ▲ | kidk 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Billions of subsidies? Im confused you talking about cars or trains. | | |
| ▲ | xnx 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | No major US public transportation system is fully paid for by riders. | | |
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| ▲ | Hikikomori 36 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | >without billions in subsidies Is there a magic road wand? |
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| ▲ | joenot443 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I think future generations will resent us for bureaucratizing our way out of the California HSR. |
