The Chinese labs distill the SOTA models to boost the performance of theirs. They are a trailer hooked up (with a 3-6 month long chain) to the trucks pushing the technology forwards. I've yet to see a trailer overtake it's truck.

China would need an architectural breakthrough to leap American labs given the huge compute disparity.

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miklosz 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I have seen indeed a trailer overtake its truck. Not a beautiful view.

	▲	digdugdirk an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Agreed. I do think the metaphor still holds though. A financial jackknifing of the AI industry seems to be one very plausible outcome as these promises/expectations of the AI companies starts meeting reality.

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overfeed an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Care to explain how the volume of AI research papers authored by Chinese researchers[1] has exceeded US-published ones? Time-traveling plagiarism perhaps, since you believe the US is destined to lead always.

1. Chinese researcher in China, to be more specific.

	▲	bfeynman an hour ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Not a great metric, research in academia doesn't necessarily translate to value. In the US they've poached so many academics because of how much value they directly translate to.
	▲	jacquesm an hour ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Volume is easy: they have far more people, it is quality that counts.

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aaa_aaa 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No all they need is time. I am awaiting the dowfall of the ai hegemony and hype with popcorn at hand.

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mhuffman 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would be happy with an openweight 3 month old Claude

	▲	cmrdporcupine 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		DeepSeek 3.2 is frankly fairly close to that. GLM 4.7 as well. They're basically around Sonnet 4 level.