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bnchrch 5 hours ago

While the headline is interesting.

I think the table at the end of the article is more so.

- Worldwide sales -10% YoY

- China sales -26% YoY

And when you cross compare Porsche saying they sold more EV powertrains than their gas equivalents against China's new found foothold as the market leader in consumer electric cars (BYD, NIO, Xiaomi, etc...)

Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.

melenaboija 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.

It’s done man. Americans are stuck in ICE engines because they’ve been told they’re “car enthusiasts” while the Chinese have been developing EV technology for years. Meanwhile, European makers are stuck not knowing what to do, make Americans happy or compete with the Chinese. The result: nothing has been done properly. And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations. Practicality beats enthusiasm for 95% of car use.

CalRobert 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Perhaps people in the future will visit the US for the dieselpunk nostalgia, the same way people like seeing classic cars in Cuba.

pear01 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes, not to mention the fact that Chinese EVs can't be sold here... protectionism for weak American companies that can't compete globally. We've gone from an automotive superpower and the land of Henry Ford to the government propping up automakers and depriving Americans of free choice. If Chinese cars would actually be allowed to sold here they would sell like Toyota Camrys.

nostromo an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Until very recently, tariffs on American cars sold in China were much higher than vice-versa. The new US tariffs were an attempt to even the playing field.

I think most people would agree that no tariffs would be good, but China is more protectionist than any other major economy, including recent changes in US policy.

pear01 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

True enough but really this boils down to we are just doing what they are doing. The reason they had it higher for longer was because for longer the situation was reversed, our cars were better. Now they have surpassed us and don't really need protection. We didn't before either, so it was a moot point. Now we do, so we do the same thing.

The point however is that the United States is supposed to operate under a different model than China. The reason to bring up the ways we act the same is then to find clarity in the contradiction.

This is essentially the same tension that runs through much of modern American discourse. It's never welfare if the beneficiary is a rich CEO at a corporation, only if it's a family in poverty. It's not like Chinese cars can't employ American workers just as Japanese and other foreign automakers do.

To my mind then, I think it's less about reciprocity and more about corporate welfare. Putting aside ICE automakers, there is also a very obvious individual who turned conspicuously political as of late who owes a great deal of his fortune to the expectation that his electric car company will one day rule the world. It would be quite embarrassing for even him if demand for his vehicles suddenly got demolished on his own turf. I would think he and others would be willing to spend a small fortune to keep the political needle tipped in their favor on this issue, the average consumer be damned.

At some level there is nothing wrong with such naked self interest. I just prefer we be honest about it, as only then can we really analyze it.

mmooss 17 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> The new US tariffs were an attempt to even the playing field.

That's a guess at the White House's thinking. They've been using every form of coercion in international relations, including economic (tariffs), military, and diplomatic. That's a factual basis for divining their reasoning.

Their words are not a factual basis - they can say anything and clearly will. Everyone who does those things provides justifications - Putin was helping oppressed Russians in Ukraine and stopping fascism, for example. Taking them at face value is not a serious analysis.

nielsbot an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Interesting that Canada agreed to break with the US on EV tariffs.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46648778

It's limited but I feel like Canada aligning themselves at all with China over the US is an interesting development.

pear01 an hour ago | parent [-]

It's a good point but imo not really surprising when the President of the United States essentially threatened to invade Canada and Greenland.

This is classic multipolar politics, trade the two behemoths against each other so they don't roll over one day and just squish you. By alienating Canada and Europe we've handed China a great gift.

lern_too_spel 10 minutes ago | parent [-]

It's only getting started. Do you think Europe is going to use American networking equipment when America has shown that it will use its military against Europe? American grid technology?

ejoso 24 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How many generations are we even into cars?

Maybe 4ish? Most kids alive but not yet driving are likely to own only hybrid ma or electrics.

Seems like a relatively short term problem overall.

fooker 39 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations.

Not sure if you have realized this, but we have a pretty decent numbers of horse enthusiasts now.

sambapa 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Maybe you’re the kind of person who believes the glass is always full if you can make the glass arbitrarily small.

onion2k 13 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Sure, but compared to an era when horses were used as a practical form of transport the number is effectively zero. Horses are a novelty that wealthy people play with. ICE cars will go the same way.

protocolture 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.

I thought we were there already tbh. Chinese cars have gone from laughably bad to quality parity in less than a decade. Like even 2 years ago, I was still hearing "the paint the paint" as the last remaining issue. But I dont hear that anymore.

maldev an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Have you ever ridden in a BYD? It's super loud, horrible suspension, seats are extremely uncomfy, everything is cheap with a fancy looking facade. If you need a car to go from point A - B and can't afford any luxury, it's fine. But it's a bare minimum vehicle with looks to appeal to status.

hliyan an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I have ridden in a BYD and it was the opposite experience: excellent suspension, unusually smooth ride, great seats. A few things on the dashboard did look a bit tacky. But overall, massive difference from where Chinese cars were even 5 years ago.

xenospn 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Most of what you’re describing applies to Teslas too, tho.

msy 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Parity? Their EVs are streets ahead, doubly so for the price.

IrishTechie 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Other than price, in what ways are they streets ahead? I’m a bit of an EV nerd and that would not be my assessment at all. Unfortunately for Western manufacturers price/volume is probably the most important thing right now, so they are still in serious trouble.

protocolture 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I dont drive one of their EV's, but the 20+ year veteran Diesel Engineer who took my DPF filter complaint escalation does and thats really all I need to know. After I run my current vehicle into the ground, that will probably be next.

fy20 an hour ago | parent [-]

Similar story here. I know a guy who does chip tuning as his career. He bought a Tesla last year, and he's more than happy with it.

petre an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Have you seen the paint schemes on new Chinese cars? Wow. Embedded glitter, chameleon colors, while the European car industry is doing boring primer like paint schemes. I always joke that they applied clear coat onto primer. And that's on >60k models.

irjustin 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

In terms of quality they are there, now it's expansion. I, for one, am quite excited for all this competition. I don't care who makes my level 4/5 self driver, I just want it now.

andyst 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

in the australian market theres often comparison between how BYD/(chinese brands) may unseat Tesla (as the scale EV first mover), but I haven't seen what I think is the prize, which is BYD want to take on Toyota as the de facto king of global car making. They want the whole car market, not just EV and are already setup to take that on.

coryrc 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Especially as Toyota seems structurally unable to create a good EV. They produced one completely bare-bones model 30 years ago and never expanded past that. At least they're keeping some knowledge of the parts by having PHEVs, but I don't think they're on the leading edge of anything. Maybe they don't need to be and can buy everything from other suppliers, but they're going to be doing a whole lot less than they currently do and not sure they'll keep their profit margin.

fy20 an hour ago | parent [-]

Toyota hybrids are full hybrids however, not mild hybrids like other manufactures, so all you really need is a bigger battery and charger. My 10 year old RAV4 Hybrid (not plug-in) can deliver 160kW just from the electric motors, without the engine. That's 3x a Dacia Spring. They have the technology for motors and control electronics, and they know it works long term without issues.

Most of the European EVs are basically just electric city cars, unable to drive long ranges due to small batteries and limited fast charging. And most of them after 100,000km will need a new battery. Doesn't really fit in with Toyota's 'long term reliability' stance.

I can't blame Toyota for waiting for the technology to mature before they go all in on EVs. Plus they do have the bz4x / RX which are full EVs you can buy today.

csomar 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

China's 2025 numbers are out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh...

They're up roughly 10% over last year and will likely hit 35% of global production. The big shift over the last decade (beyond their growing market share) is that their overall quality has caught up to (and in many cases surpassed) the traditional incumbents.

Barring a global war, I think they're unstoppable at this point.

itsthecourier 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

great analysis

mrits 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don’t think anyone is going to keep an advantage in car manufacturing. The way we build them might totally change in a short duration with the rapid advancement in robotics

kulahan 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Most advancements in robotics have been for highly generalized robots. We’ve been using robotics to build cars for like 50+ years. They’re extremely good.

appplication 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

China may become the superpower on volume but I would be surprised if the upper quartile (by price) of western buyers were interested in Chinese vehicles. Too much quality issues across the board on Chinese made products, unless you have a trusted non-Chinese company with stringent quality control (e.g. Apple model).

I’m sure they can handily win the lower end of the market though. And yes I’m aware many western manufacturers are shit tier quality.

ericd 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don’t think this is accurate, Chinese firms are increasingly moving up the quality chain. You might want to look at some of the reviews of Xiaomi’s recently launched car. Also, Tesla Shanghai is one of their best factories, much better quality scores than Fremont iirc.

Having a totally local, integrated supply chain pays dividends in a lot of ways, as does leading in production volume. Tim Cook also gave that interview where he was just talking about the incredibly deep bench of industrial talent that you just can’t find outside China at this point - that labor cost wasn’t why they produced there.

appplication 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The issue is not actual quality, it’s perceived quality. Chinese companies will fight decades of history and negative perception to reach top of the market consumers, a segment obsessed with perception.

kjellsbells 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Then again, it's been done before.

- Japanese consumer goods were perceived as junk until the tipping point was reached, and then they were perceived as high-quality, easily equalling or surpassing Western goods. That took ~30 years (1950 to 1980, say). Older readers will recall the controversy over Akio Morita's (Morita-san being the founder of Sony) statements in the book "The Japan that can Say No" (edit: see [0]), which seems strangely prescient in the sense that it ignited a lot of (US) debate around dependence on foreign semiconductors.

- Then there was Taiwan, again, a 30 year cycle from about 1970 to 2000. Taiwan used to be known for cheap textiles, consumer dross, and suchlike. Not now...

My point is that the way to get better at products is to make them and make them and make them, and eventually an export-led country reaches a tipping point where the consumers flip over, and their perception changes.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Japan_That_Can_Say_No

pixl97 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Exactly, I grew up during the beginning if the Japanese auto boom in the US. My grandfather was one of the first people in his group to buy one of the Japanese cars when they became highly reliable and his friend heckled him about it for awhile. Until that is he wasn't constantly repairing the thing. It got much better gas mileage. Wasn't getting ate up by rust. And it ran well over 150k miles, when US cars typically fell apart before 100k miles.

bruce511 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Rinse and repeat for Korean cars. And now China are deep into their cycle too. They're already producing high quality, at half the price, and I've noticed that the quality narrative is changing.

Regardless of where they are perception wise, the long term lesson is clear - local manufacturers may ride the "quality" bandwagon for a while, but ultimately it's a losing strategy.

ICE cars, and manufacturers who don't gave an EV strategy are already inside their Kodak moment. It's fairly obvious that at some point "all" cars will be EV, just like "all" cameras are digital. Those who remain ICE only will fade into obscurity.

Unfortunately the politicians in the US right now are driving a narrative away from EVs (and Tesla has become semi-toxic). Which in turn affects local manufacturers planning near term sales. By the time the mood swings it may be hard to catch up.

Or maybe not. Maybe they come late to the party simply skipping a bunch of iterations, going straight to great, cheap, reliable. Time will tell I guess.

closewith 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Where are you based that you hold this impression? Because globally BYD is perceived as having much better build quality than Tesla, rightly or wrongly.

itsthecourier 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

just got an etron because my partner wanted a xpeng, guy is super happy in that xpeng and I gotta say, he's right

coredev_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

From what I've heard, the quality is pretty good. The problem is when something breaks, you can be waiting for (sometimes very expensive) parts for months while not being able to use your car.

ehnto 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's not particularly unique amongst car manufacturers.

Marsymars 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Maybe I got lucky, but I drove a 2011 model Ford from 2013-2025, and the worst part delay I experienced in that time was when they had to get next-day parts from a nearby city.

zdragnar 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It's worth pointing out that the F150 has been the best selling truck for 40 years and the best selling consumer vehicle for most of them as well. There's bound to be plenty of parts for them sitting around.

I've got one from 2011 that I'm still driving myself, and aside from one minor thing, I've not had a single problem with it, despite putting it through its paces.

tharkun__ 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You're speaking of Tesla here, correct?

IncreasePosts 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

it took Japan about 25 years of very directed industrial strategy to take the "made in Japan" label from indicating junk to the average American, to indicating a premium/reliable product. China might get there in even less than 25 years but you'll probably still find people holding onto old "chinesium" beliefs long after they should

Marsymars 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A key for Japan is also that for various product categories, they don't export (or maybe manufacture at all - I'm just not really familiar with their non-export goods) low-quality goods - I assume because it isn't economical to compete at the low end of the market.

Even though China can compete at the top of many markets, they still also compete at the bottom, which taints their reputation.

jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Japan never was a threat during that time to countries around it. China is very much a threat to other countries around it and I would feel pretty bad about materially financing yet another war.

tmnvix 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm beginning to feel this way about the US. Much more comfortable with Chinese foreign policy at this point. At this point, going on the past 50 years or so, it would take something quite extraordinary on China's part to convince me they are going to abuse their power as much as the US has so far. Hopefully I'm not simply being naive.

bluGill 2 hours ago | parent [-]

You need to pay better attention. I hate what Trump is doing to US foriegn policy - but it is still better than China, and there is hope that things will change in the future as elections continue. China doesn't even have that hope.

China is clearly supporting Russia in Ukraine. China is clearly making plans to invade Tiawas (that alone makes them just as bad as the US, even if it hasn't happened yet).

woooooo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If we add up "damage to countries around it" in the previous hundred years, I think Japan doesn't look so great.

China conducted one several-week war against Vietnam and annexed Tibet, both over 50 years ago. Other than the longstanding dispute with Taiwan, who are they threatening? Some quibbles over a few Himalayan mountains with India?

jabl 24 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

They seem quite intent on inching their border closer to the Philippines mainland by building military bases on some shoals that belong to the Philippines.

fooker 37 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> Some quibbles

Two wars.

idiotsecant 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Haha that little 'during that time' is doing some heavy lifting there. You don't think there might have been some slight lingering resentment and fear that the slouching monster that Japan was during WWII would come back? I think Japan's neighbors might have felt 'pretty bad' too, but it didn't matter. In the end the money wins.

p1necone 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Chinese electronics manufacturing now is like Japan in the 60s/70s - I give it like a decade max before "Made in China" is widely understood to mean "High Quality" rather than the "Cheap Junk" connotation it still has today.

pixl97 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's like that with tools if you know what to buy, and costs well below the US brands.

For my primary tools I'll have hundreds of hours of use I still buy the more expensive brands, but on tools I'll use much less commonly I'll pick up a Chinese unit in a heartbeat for 1/10th the price.

thaumasiotes 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxYjsZr1PwM

If you read Calvin and Hobbes you can learn that Taiwan used to be known for making... shirts.

protocolture 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No its the other way. In 4x4 They cannibalised the GM-Holden Colorado chassis production line in Thailand when GM exited that market, have refitted it with chinese made electronics and shell, and have complete quality parity. Actually a few people think the engine is better, and I am forced to agree. One of the colorado downstream models I tested had a better turning circle. They also tend to pack in all the "extras" other brands put on as standard. Consumers face a choice between cheaper and better vs tried and true brand loyalty. And brand loyalty has a limit tbh.

jacquesm 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The (potential, no experience) quality issues are to me far outweighed by the enabling of yet another country to become a superpower which will then sooner or later result in yet another confrontation. Russia should have taught at least Europe that this sort of trade can only backfire in the longer term. Yes, I realize, China is the world's factory now, but there is no reason that can not change. I'm trying really hard to buy European made products and to use European services where possible. There are still a couple of hard nuts to crack but I'll get there.

pixl97 3 hours ago | parent [-]

In the US for example, most of the US brands are already made in China. They will copy the tooling and put a different brand name on it and you'll have a tool of the same quality for way less cost.

Simply put China is an unrecognized superpower at this point with the investments they've already made. The amount of infrastructure they've built in a decade dwarfs what the West has done in decades.

vlovich123 an hour ago | parent [-]

Sorry, the country with nukes, nuclear submarines, a massive navy and a permanent member on the UN Security Council isn’t recognized as a superpower? By whom?

sdwr 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Selling the most cars will eventually translate into making the best cars, with the compounding experience and network effects.

linksnapzz 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

At the time the US was making the most cars in the world...quality varied widely, to be generous.

willturman 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You'd think so, but also, Tesla.

kulahan 4 hours ago | parent [-]

They don’t sell anywhere near the most cars, and their market share is shrinking. They also are a very VERY young manufacturer. This isn’t the right example to use imo.

Maybe Jeep? Very popular, dogwater quality. They take nearly half of the Consumer Reports “top 10 worst cars on the road” almost every year.

appplication 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Selling the most x will eventually translate into making the best x

It’s a theory for sure, but I don’t think that’s a common strategy for modern capitalism.

andyferris 4 hours ago | parent [-]

What about for socialism with Chinese charateristics?

olyjohn 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The motivations from the people at the top are the same. Minimal effort and maximum profit.

auggierose an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

People are buying £60000 BYD cars left and right. That's quite an expensive car.

idiot900 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This was once said about Japanese cars. I don’t want a Chinese car now, but I probably will not too long from now.

woooooo 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The upper quartile are in the US and they're not allowed to buy Chinese cars, so you are right by default.

That notwithstanding, Xiaomi cars are nicer than Teslas. They're called "the Apple of China" for a reason.

IncreasePosts 4 hours ago | parent [-]

They can't buy Chinese cars now, but I imagine the next Democratic president might want to knock Elon musk down a peg or two.

fooker 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

American foreign policy has been remarkably consistent over the last several decades.

Sometimes it’s the carrot and sometimes it’s the stick but the policies remain the same.

bluGill 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The next democrat still has ford and gm - with a lot of union labor - to worry about.

light_hue_1 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Nothing to do with quality. It's all image.

When Americans discover again how crappy their cars are compared to what's available elsewhere, like we did with Japan, there will be a reckoning once more. And again American cars will become the laughing stock they really are.

In the meantime, this incredibly short sighted protectionism will end just like the last round did. Further hollowing out our industrial base and permanently giving away large parts of a massive market.

And I'm sure all of the people involved in this insanity will want a bailout too.

linksnapzz 3 hours ago | parent [-]

>When Americans discover again how crappy their cars are compared to what's >available elsewhere, like we did with Japan

No, that's not what happened. Japanese manufacturers made cars in the US, to match US tastes. Japanese cars as sold in Japan, were not models Americans would buy.

>In the meantime, this incredibly short sighted protectionism will end just like >the last round did.

It'll end with...Chinese cars made in US factories w/ American workers? Chinese V8 pickup trucks failing to win market share against the US competition?

pixl97 3 hours ago | parent [-]

US cars in the late 70s and early 80s sucked, you just had to be there to know how bad they were.

The Japanese made cars for the US that were different than local cars, but they were also different from what the US was making.

csomar 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The quality angle was true 10 years ago, but that's no longer the case. Chinese cars are now superior in some areas and inferior in others (you can feel that some finishing is incomplete), but on average (and especially considering the price) they're better. The gap in the inferior areas is very small, and I wouldn't be surprised if they fully surpass European cars this year, given the new models they're releasing.