| ▲ | jqpabc123 4 hours ago |
| For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-... |
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| ▲ | mr_mitm 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono... |
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| ▲ | 1121redblackgo 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’ | | |
| ▲ | mmmm2 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Pump and dump scheme? | |
| ▲ | vrosas 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | s/Predictions/Ketamine-and-adderall-fueled ramblings | | |
| ▲ | spwa4 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think they mean grift or even fraud, since they were definitely meant to attract investment. Now excuse me while I go check on where my 2016 full-self-driving Tesla car. It was supposed to pick me up 9 years ago, something must have happened. |
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| ▲ | rchaud 22 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "Tech Optimism" | |
| ▲ | mr_mitm 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | According to the article, a court would call this "corporate puffery", but to me it's nothing but lies and grifting. |
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| ▲ | silisili 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I had no idea this existed, that's pretty damning. The question - is Musk lying on purpose, or is this more 90-90 rule where he made (obviously wrong) assumptions based on current progress? | | |
| ▲ | selkin 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If he himself believes he can achieve his off-the-cuff deadlines or not doesn't matter for the rest of us: he already proven himself to be a fabulist, and after so many failed predictions, should know better than to air them in public, especially as he must be acutely aware that making such claims inflates his and his companies' net worth, and hence has legal implications. Only he cares not about those, as none of his past misdeeds had any serious consequences to himself. | |
| ▲ | rchaud 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How about the possibility that the cost of lying is less than the capital gains that can be realized by lying about it? EM was only fined $20 million when he said he had secured funding to take the company private at $420/share [0]. The stock bounce from that "news" was in the billions. As it stands, he can get a trillion dollar pay package if a something-trillion market cap target is hit. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/04/elon-musk-loses-... | |
| ▲ | janalsncm 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The latter implies there is any progress to project out from. |
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| ▲ | toxik 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Actually a very interesting article! Didn't know he'd been selling this lie for so long. | |
| ▲ | qoez 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The best counter argument to that is that he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) and reusable rockets. If someone makes a thousand moonshot attempts but still succeeds with two that's impressive. | | |
| ▲ | lucianbr 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Something is missing here. Once you get two moonshots done, you have free pass to claim anything any number of times with zero results? I cannot agree. | |
| ▲ | LunaSea 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Electric vehicles were the first types of cars invented. Musk also bought into Tesla. So its not like he invented some kind of alien technology. It was always about having good enough marketing to permit 10 years of R&D to make the car actually attractive. | | | |
| ▲ | mikestew 26 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | he did manage to predict/make into reality electric vehicles (when going into that industry was crazy) Nissan might like a word about that. |
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| ▲ | marze 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | "Tesla, where we make the impossible late" |
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| ▲ | bdcravens 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The full Robotaxi rollout is going to happen as soon as they finish fulfilling the Roadster preorders. |
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| ▲ | TheAlchemist 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024... https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-... |
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| ▲ | tclancy 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| 2026 is the Year of Tesla on the Desktop. |
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| ▲ | PunchyHamster 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Tesla fans have no ability to learn from past lies. |
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| ▲ | RobotToaster 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 65535 times... | | |
| ▲ | jacquesm 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Let's hope they used a short unsigned int, just one more time and they can start all over again! | |
| ▲ | raverbashing 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Hey just fool them once more and the counter goes to zero |
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| ▲ | lossolo 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Maybe "cultists" is a better word than fans, with Musk as their guru. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software. I've recently been shopping for another electric SUV and to be told that to get charging stops on your long trip 'through an app on your phone' instead of built into the navigation is.... Wild Edit: it needs to be said that I consider a car a solution to the A to B problem, and nothing more :)
This was one of the premium German automakers by the way. On a ~$50k car.... | | |
| ▲ | oakesm9 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation. For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. Many like Polestars and Renaults are built on Android Automotive (different from Android Auto) and the built-in navigation is full Google Maps with direct access to the cars battery state and control systems. Works perfectly on my Renault Megane E-Tech. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation That's my expectation too. > For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. This is a real issue. You might be stranded with low quality suggestions. Chargers that don't work. The large number of accounts you need to have as every charger has their own etcetera | | |
| ▲ | vel0city 2 minutes ago | parent [-] | | In my non-Telsa, I get decent suggestions with live data built in to the car. I also get suggestions through multiple different apps of my choice through Android Auto. In a Tesla, you get what Tesla gives you. I haven't bothered with any accounts in years for third-party chargers. Most just plug in and negotiate payment automatically. Others have credit card readers on them. I haven't personally encountered out of service chargers on my road trips in a few years. I can charge at most of the major Tesla charging locations as well these days. Ironically, those require I hop on a proprietary app with another account to manage, so I often avoid them. |
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| ▲ | raisedbyninjas 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Tesla, Rivian and a few others are tech companies that make cars. They have great software and integration between components. Traditional automakers are assemblers of modules made by dozens of suppliers. That's why Teslas navigation accounts for traffic, weather, elevation changes, charger speed & availability to plan routes. For legacy car manufactures battery preconditioning is about the most sophisticated route planning feature they'll have. | |
| ▲ | donkyrf 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Which maker? Because that assertion is false for Porsche Audi VW BMW and MB. What’s left? | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Audi Q4, and if the dealer doesn't know how their own cars work then that's the same to me. In an EV it's a necessity. |
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| ▲ | lossolo 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > I can't think of an automaker with better software. Xiaomi? Huawei? Avatar? Or do you mean only the ones available in the US? | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If they're not available, then I can't consider them an option? I've obviously not tested every car out there. But for years Tesla has been the only car that came close to the convenience of a gas powered car. Their charging infrastructure really allowed it to be a normal car when you live in populated areas. | | |
| ▲ | HAL3000 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > If they're not available, then I can't consider them an option? Who knows where you live and what options you have? Who knows what you considered? Maybe that's why the question was asked? > I've obviously not tested every car out there. But for years Tesla has been the only car that came close to the convenience of a gas powered car. Their charging infrastructure really allowed it to be a normal car when you live in populated areas. Charging infra have nothing to do with their cars besides maybe the US. They are barely leading in anything anymore, especially in countries with heavy EV competition, like China. When I was in China this year, I saw Teslas everywhere, but most of them were a few years old. Most of the new cars were Chinese EV brands, and they seemed better on most metrics in the same segment, which included quality. They're losing market share in the EU and worldwide. |
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| ▲ | dzhiurgis 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Gotta be joking. | | |
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| ▲ | Analemma_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| "The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016) |
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| ▲ | cyberax 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. It's available! Everyone in the US can go to Austin and get a ride in a Tesla robotaxi! |
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| ▲ | BoiledCabbage 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a huge pay package made sense. Cyber truck is flopping but now he's again living off government graft by having another company buy up the dead weight supply. Tesla is only around because of govt subsidy and now that that's dead he's turned to another govt spigot. While supposedly being opposed politically to what he's doing. And time and time again people still make up excuses because they can't believe they were conned. Probably the biggest sign AI is going to flop is him starting talking about it being right around the corner. Little technical skills, no forecasting ability, we saw how much his "efficiency management" philosophy flopped when done in public via DOGE (vs behind the scenes in a private company) and yet people keep falling for it. As long as he can keep spitting out BS, people keep falling for it. |
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| ▲ | rightbyte 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think you think about it in the wrong way. The obvious con is what hypes the fan base. They think they are in on it and that they will fool the "NPCs" or what ever they call normal people. | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Tesla is crashing But the stock keeps hitting new all time highs. | | | |
| ▲ | janalsncm 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The problem with the stock market is, even if you know with 100% certainty that EM is lying and Tesla is overvalued, you only can cash in that knowledge if the stock price makes contact with reality. In fact even if every single shareholder in Tesla knows that the price is unsustainable they can still hold out for a greater fool for years. To a large extent you are betting on what the crowd will do, not what the company will do. | |
| ▲ | jfengel 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Beyond a certain point it becomes self-reinforcing. You will distort everything else about your world view to support that lie. You will surround yourself with other people who believe it and live in a completely internally consistent reality, surrounded by a vast conspiracy trying to bring you down. The really killer part is, I can't even be 100% certain that it's not me. I'm quite sure, and justify it solidly, but then, I would. | |
| ▲ | heresie-dabord 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. They mistakenly believe, like temporarily embarrassed millionaires/capitalists [1], that they are actually in the winning group. [1] _ https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed |
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| ▲ | bagels 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Year isn't over yet, hah. |
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| ▲ | whynotmaybe 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come. First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ... What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ? Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. Lesson learned, till next time ! |
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| ▲ | toss1 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | >>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth. | | |
| ▲ | Yoric 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. In particular, nothing that comes out of his mouth regarding AI makes any sense. And still, people listen to him as if he was an expert. Go figure. | | |
| ▲ | FireBeyond 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Or even vehicle autonomy. His latest bullshit was about Tesla cameras and fog/rain/snow - on an investor call, no less - "Oh, we do photon counting directly from the sensor, so it's a non-issue". No. 1, Tesla cameras are not capable of that - you need a special sensor, that's not useful for any real visual representation. And 2, even if you did, photon counting requires a closed "box" so to speak - you can't count photons in "open air". And no-one calls it out. | |
| ▲ | alfiedotwtf 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I just don’t get it? Do people hang off his every word just because he’s rich? What are they expecting for this worship… it’s not like he’s going to start throwing $100 bills to people because they agree with him on Twitter | | |
| ▲ | Yoric 18 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Seen from the other side of the Atlantic, I've regularly felt that the US is rather prone to hero worship, see e.g. the passion dedicated to presidential candidates, former presidents, billionaires, but also how the main characters of pretty much all American biopics I recall can't ever be wrong. If my observation is correct, I guess what we're witnessing with Musk could be a case of hero worship – and in any narrative in which Musk is a hero, he's of course right. |
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| ▲ | hvb2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Just stating that he does seem to inspire and build teams/orgs that do great things. Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are. | | |
| ▲ | overfeed 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are. CATL, BYD, and other Chinese manufacturers are absolutely killing it at Tesla's expense, Because their markets have actual, sharp-elbowed competition requiring actual innovation. | |
| ▲ | leptons 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | How many massive, bloated rockets that nobody really needs have the competitors been blowing up time after time after time? | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | When they do this on their own dime and get results years ahead of competitors, is that a bad thing? If not for crew dragon, the US would be begging Russia for seats to the ISS still. Is that your preferred outcome? |
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| ▲ | coliveira 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Just wait another 6 months /s |
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| ▲ | vileain 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [flagged] |
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| ▲ | nobleach 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| And of those things we've been told, a high percentage of them have had to do with battery technology. Science is full of discoveries, science at scale doesn't always work out like we've hoped. |
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| ▲ | majormajor 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Everything I remember about the Jobs RDF was entirely about things like MacWorld Expo presentations. Selling lesser-performing products for more by claiming they did more with things like Photoshop bakeoffs, or with (claimed) style over substance. (I was a big long-term Mac user so I felt like Mac OS was enough of an advantage over Windows for a long time that it wasn't just style over substance.) Musk just took it way further. When Jobs missed with the RDF it was on stuff like the G4 Cube being "cool" enough to make up for its issues. He wasn't promising miracles. | | |
| ▲ | Yoric 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Took me some time to remember that RDF meant Reality Distortion Field. |
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