| ▲ | nish__ an hour ago |
| Anyone want to start a fab with me? We can buy an ASML machine and figure out the rest as we go. Toronto area btw |
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| ▲ | Reason077 an hour ago | parent | next [-] |
| A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now. Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online? |
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| ▲ | nish__ 21 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me. | | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | At that point, it'll be the opposite problem as more capacity than demand will be available. These new fabs won't be able to pay for themselves. Every tic receives a tok. | |
| ▲ | Keyframe 7 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | it's just a bunch of melted sand. How hard can it be? | |
| ▲ | UncleOxidant 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think it would be more like 5-7 years from now if they started breaking ground on new fabs today. | |
| ▲ | umanwizard an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | China cannot buy ASML machines. All advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China is done with stockpiled ASML machines from before the ban. | | |
| ▲ | tooltalk 19 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That restriction is only for the most advanced systems. According to ASML's Q3 2025 filing, 42% of all system sales went to China. | |
| ▲ | phil21 27 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Would you really need ASML machines to do DDR5 RAM? Honest question, but I figured there was competition for the non-bleeding edge - perhaps naively so. | |
| ▲ | squigz 23 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | As someone who knows next to nothing about this space, why can China not build their own machines? Is ASML the only company making those machines? If so, why? Is it a matter of patents, or is the knowledge required for this so specialized only they've built it up? |
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| ▲ | GeekFortyTwo an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| As someone with no skills in the space, no money, and lives near Ottawa: I'd love to help start a fab in Ontario. |
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| ▲ | nish__ an hour ago | parent [-] | | Right on, partner. I think there's a ton of demand for it tbh I'll do the engineering so we're good on that front. Just need investors. | | |
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| ▲ | asjir 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| But what if it's a bubble driven by speculation? It wouldn't pay off. Starting a futures exchange on RAM chips, on the other hand... |
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| ▲ | jacquesm an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I hope you have very deep pockets. But I'm cheering you on from the sidelines. |
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| ▲ | nish__ an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Just need a half billion in upfront investment. And thank you for the support :) | | | |
| ▲ | tmaly an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | that is an understatement |
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| ▲ | bhhaskin an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Only if you put up the 10 billion dollars. |
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| ▲ | nish__ an hour ago | parent [-] | | Machines are less than 400 million. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 an hour ago | parent [-] | | And the cost of the people to run those machines, and the factories that are required to run the machines? | | |
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| ▲ | deuplonicus an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Sure, we can work on brining in TinyTapeout to modern fab |
