| ▲ | Reason077 an hour ago | |||||||||||||||||||
A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now. Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online? | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | nish__ 20 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | Keyframe 6 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
it's just a bunch of melted sand. How hard can it be? | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | dylan604 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
At that point, it'll be the opposite problem as more capacity than demand will be available. These new fabs won't be able to pay for themselves. Every tic receives a tok. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | UncleOxidant 34 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
I think it would be more like 5-7 years from now if they started breaking ground on new fabs today. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | umanwizard an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
China cannot buy ASML machines. All advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China is done with stockpiled ASML machines from before the ban. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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