| ▲ | nicce a day ago |
| Most people can’t affort the GPUs for local models if you want to get close to cloud capabilities. |
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| ▲ | rhdunn a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| A 4090 has 24GB of VRAM allowing you to run a 22B model entirely in memory at FP8 and 24B models at Q6_K (~19GB). A 5090 has 32GB of VRAM allowing you to run a 32B model in memory at Q6_K. You can run larger models by splitting the GPU layers that are run in VRAM vs stored in RAM. That is slower, but still viable. This means that you can run the Qwen3-Coder-30B-A3B model locally on a 4090 or 5090. That model is a Mixture of Experts model with 3B active parameters, so you really only need a card with 3B of VRAM so you could run it on a 3090. The Qwen3-Coder-480B-A35B model could also be run on a 4090 or 5090 by splitting the active 35B parameters across VRAM and RAM. Yes, it will be slower than running it in the cloud. But you can get a long way with a high-end gaming rig. |
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| ▲ | cmclaughlin 26 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I also expect local LLMs to catch up to the cloud providers. I spent last weekend experimenting with Ollama and LM studio. I was impressed at how good Qwen3-Coder is. Not as good as Claude, but close - maybe even better in some ways. As I understand it, the latest Macs are good for local LLMs due to their unified memory. 32GB of RAM in one of the newer M-series seems to be the "sweet spot" for price versus performance. | |
| ▲ | iberator a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's out of touch for 90% of developers worldwide | | |
| ▲ | brazukadev a day ago | parent [-] | | Today. But what about in 5 years? Would you bet we will be paying hundreds of billions to OpenAI yearly or buying consumer GPUs? I know what I will be doing. | | |
| ▲ | Dilettante_ a day ago | parent | next [-] | | But the progress goes both ways: In five years, you would still want to use whatever is running on the cloud supercenters. Just like today you could run gpt-2 locally as a coding agent, but we want the 100x-as-powerful shiny thing. | | |
| ▲ | mcny a day ago | parent | next [-] | | That would be great if that was the case but my understanding is that the progress is plateauing. I don't know how much of this is anthorpic / Google / openAI holding itself back to save money and how much is the state of the art improvement slowing down though. I can imagine there could be a 64 GB GPU in five years as absurd as it feels to type that today. | | |
| ▲ | simonw a day ago | parent | next [-] | | What gives you the impression the progress is plateauing? I'm finding the difference just between Sonnet 4 and Sonnet 4.5 to be meaningful in terms of the complexity of tasks I'm willing to use them for. | |
| ▲ | sebastiennight a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > a 64 GB GPU in five years Is there a digit missing? I don't understand why this existing in 5 years is absurd | | |
| ▲ | mcny 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I meant for me it feels absurd today but it will likely happen in five years. |
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| ▲ | brazukadev a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Not really, for many cases I'm happy using Qwen3-8B in my computer and would be very happy if I could run Qwen3-Coder-30B-A3B. |
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| ▲ | infecto a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Paying for compute in the cloud. That’s what I am betting on. Multiple providers, different data center players. There may be healthy margins for them but I would bet it’s always going to be relatively cheaper for me to pay for the compute rather than manage it myself. | |
| ▲ | alfiedotwtf 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Woah, woah, woah. I thought in 5 years time we would all be out of a job lol |
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| ▲ | reaslonik a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You need to leave much more room for context if you want to do useful work besides entertainment. Luckily there are _several_ PCIe slots on a motherboard. New Nvidia cards at retail(or above) are not the only choice for building a cluster; I threw a pile of Intel Battlemage cards on it and got away with ~30% of the nvidia cost for same capacity (setup was _not_ easy in early 2025 though). You can gain a lot of performance by using optimal quantization techniques for your setup(ix, awq etc), different llamacpp builds do different between each other and very different compared to something like vLLM | |
| ▲ | jen729w a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Honestly though how many people reading this do you think have that setup vs. 85% of us being on a MBx? > The Qwen3-Coder-480B-A35B model could also be run on a 4090 or 5090 by splitting the active 35B parameters across VRAM and RAM. Reminds me of running Doom when I had to hack config.sys to forage 640KB of memory. Less than 0.1% of the people reading this are doing that. Me, I gave $20 to some cloud service and I can do whatever the hell I want from this M1 MBA in a hotel room in Japan. | | |
| ▲ | radicalbyte a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > Reminds me of running Doom when I had to hack config.sys to forage 640KB of memory. The good old days of having to do crazy nutty things to get Elite II: Frontier, Magic Carpet, Worms, Xcom: UFO Enemy Unknown, Syndicate et cetera to actually run on my PC :-) | | |
| ▲ | alfiedotwtf 20 hours ago | parent [-] | | That crazy Burt thing these days, is quitting Chrome because it’s consuming 90% ram |
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| ▲ | reaslonik a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | >I can do whatever the hell I want from this M1 MBA in a hotel room in Japan. As long as it's within terms and conditions of whatever agreement you made for that $20. I can run queries on my own inference setup from remote locations too | | |
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| ▲ | Foobar8568 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes but they are really less performant than claude code or codex.
I really cried with the 20-25GB models ( 30b Qwen, Devstral etc). They really don't hold a candle, I didn't think the gap was this large or maybe Claude code and GPT performs much better than I imagined. | |
| ▲ | ashirviskas a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How much context do you get with 2GB of leftover VRAM on Nvidia GPU? | |
| ▲ | electroglyph a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | you need a couple RTX 6000 pros to come close to matching cloud capability |
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| ▲ | s1mplicissimus a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Most people I know can't afford to leak business insider information to 3rd party SaaS providers, so it's unfortunately not really an option. |
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| ▲ | ruszki a day ago | parent | next [-] | | But… they do all the time. Almost everybody uses some mix of Office, Slack, Notion, random email providers, random “security” solutions etc. The exception is the opposite. The only thing prevents info leaking is ToS, and there are options for that even with LLMs. Nothing changed regarding that. | | |
| ▲ | Antibabelic a day ago | parent | next [-] | | In my personal experience, it's very common for big companies to host email, messengers, conferencing software on their own servers. | | |
| ▲ | infecto a day ago | parent | next [-] | | In my experience it’s very common for big companies to not host. Think Fortune 500 type companies. Most are legally happy with their MSA and reasonably confident in security standards. | |
| ▲ | s1mplicissimus a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > In my personal experience, it's very common for big companies to host email, messengers, conferencing software on their own servers. Mind sharing a clarification on your understanding of "common" and "big"? | |
| ▲ | ruszki a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes, then they use Outlook for example. Have you checked the ToS of the new Outlook version for commoners? They flat out state that they can use all of your emails for whatever they want. Also, companies host for example an Exchange server on prem; and guess, what it connects to? Why you can usually access account at outlook.com? | | |
| ▲ | consonaut a day ago | parent [-] | | Your on premise exchange server has zero connections to outlook.com. OWA (Outlook Web Access) looks similar to outlook.com but has otherwise nothing to do with it. | | |
| ▲ | ruszki 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | Then let’s call outlook.office.com, and that’s an OWA, and you’re redirected there if you login on outlook.com. And that’s the exception when on prem Exchange servers really work as more than mere proxies nowadays. I’m quite sure that there are still real fully on prem solutions, but it’s laughable these opinions, that most company really care about this. They simply don’t. |
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| ▲ | omgmajk a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | All of those things are hosted on-prem in the bigger orgs I have worked in. | | |
| ▲ | simonw a day ago | parent [-] | | I don't think Slack or Notion have on-prem/self-hosted options. |
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| ▲ | infecto a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is a poor take imo. Depends on the industry but the worlds businesses run on the shoulders of companies like Microsoft and heavily use OneDrive/Sharepoint. Most entities, even those with sensitive information are legally comfortable with that arrangement. Using a LLM does not change much so long as the MSA is similar. | | |
| ▲ | s1mplicissimus a day ago | parent [-] | | > Depends on the industry but the worlds businesses run on the shoulders of companies like Microsoft and heavily use OneDrive/Sharepoint I am sure MS employees need to tell themselves that to sleep well. The statement itself doesn't seem to hold much epistemological value above that though. | | |
| ▲ | infecto a day ago | parent [-] | | It goes in direct conflict with your idea. I am sure you know some people within your circle that say they cannot leak data but the fact remains. Over 85% of Fortune 500 companies use some combo of OneDrive or Sharepoint. The companies have already gotten familiar with the risks and legally are comfortable with the MSAs. So I am not sure what legs you are standing on. Absolutely there are specific companies or industries where they think the risk is too great but for many, outsourcing the process is either the same or less risk then doing it all inhouse. |
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| ▲ | EagnaIonat a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The more recent LLMs work fine on an M1 mac. Can't speak for Windows/Linux. There was even a recent release of Granite4 that runs on a Raspberry Pi. https://github.com/Jewelzufo/granitepi-4-nano For my local work I use Ollama. (M4 Max 128GB) - gpt-oss. 20b or 120b depending on complexity of use cases. - granite4 for speed and lower complexity (around the same as gpt20b). |
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| ▲ | whitehexagon a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Agreed, GPU is the expensive route, especially when I was looking at external GPU solutions. Using Qwen3:32b on a 32GB M1 Pro may not be "close to cloud capabilities" but it is more than powerful enough for me, and most importantly, local and private. As a bonus, running Asahi Linux feels like I own my Personal Computer once again. |
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| ▲ | mark_l_watson a day ago | parent [-] | | I agree with you (I have a 32G M2Pro) and I like to mix using local models running with Ollama and LM Studio with using gemini-cli (used to also occasionally use codex but I just cancelled my $20/month OpenAI subscription - I like their products but I don’t like their business model, so I lose out now on that option). Running smaller models on Apple Silicon is kinder on the environment/energy use and has privacy benefits for corporate use. Using a hybrid approach makes sense for many use cases. Everyone gets to make their own decisions; for me, I like to factor in externalities like social benefit, environment, and wanting the economy to do as well as it can in our new post-mono polar world. |
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| ▲ | Tepix a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Isn't the point that you don't need SOTA capabilities all the time? |