But the progress goes both ways: In five years, you would still want to use whatever is running on the cloud supercenters. Just like today you could run gpt-2 locally as a coding agent, but we want the 100x-as-powerful shiny thing.

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mcny a day ago | parent | next [-]

That would be great if that was the case but my understanding is that the progress is plateauing. I don't know how much of this is anthorpic / Google / openAI holding itself back to save money and how much is the state of the art improvement slowing down though. I can imagine there could be a 64 GB GPU in five years as absurd as it feels to type that today.

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simonw a day ago | parent | next [-]

What gives you the impression the progress is plateauing?

I'm finding the difference just between Sonnet 4 and Sonnet 4.5 to be meaningful in terms of the complexity of tasks I'm willing to use them for.

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sebastiennight a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> a 64 GB GPU in five years

Is there a digit missing? I don't understand why this existing in 5 years is absurd

	▲	mcny 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I meant for me it feels absurd today but it will likely happen in five years.

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brazukadev a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Not really, for many cases I'm happy using Qwen3-8B in my computer and would be very happy if I could run Qwen3-Coder-30B-A3B.