Putting a few boots in Taiwan would also make for a profitable short. Profitable to the tune of several trillion dollars. Xi must be getting tempted.

▲

CuriouslyC 3 days ago | parent [-]

It's a lot more complicated than that. They need to be able to take the island very quickly with a decapitation strike, while also keeping TSMC from being sabotaged or destroyed, then they need to be able to weather a long western economic embargo until they can "break the siege" with demand for what they control along with minor good faith concessions.

It's very risky play, and if it doesn't work it leaves China in a much worse place than before, so ideally you don't make the play unless you're already facing some big downside, sort of as a "hail Mary" move. At this point I'm sure they're assuming Trump is glad handing them while preparing for military action, they might even view invasion of Taiwan as defensive if they think military action could be imminent anyhow.

▲

gizajob 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Destroying TSMC or knowing it would be sabotaged would pretty much be the point of the operation. Would take 48 hours and they could be out of there again and say “ooops sorry” at the UN.

	▲	CuriouslyC 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Hard disagree. They need chips bad, and it's the US defense position that TSMC be destroyed if possible in the event of successful Chinese invasion. They also care about reunification on principle, and an attack like that without letting them force "One China" on the Taiwanese in the aftermath would just move them farther from that goal.

▲

JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> then they need to be able to weather a long western economic embargo until they can "break the siege" with demand for what they control along with minor good faith concessions

And you know we'd be potting their transport ships, et cetera, from a distance the whole time, all to terrific fanfare. The Taiwan Strait would become the new training ground for naval drones, with the targets being almost exclusively Chinese.

▲

CuriouslyC 2 days ago | parent [-]

I worked with the Taiwanese Military, that's their dream scenario but the reality is they're scared shitless that the Chinese will decapitate them with massive air superiority. Drones don't mean shit without C2.

▲

JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | parent [-]

> they're scared shitless that the Chinese will decapitate them with massive air superiority

Taiwan fields strong air defenses backed up by American long-range fortifications.

The threat is covert decapitation. A series of terrorist attacks carried out to sow confusion while the attack launches.

Nevertheless, unless China pulls off a Kabul, they’d still be subject to constant cross-Strait harassment.

	▲	CuriouslyC 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		China has between 5:1 and 10:1 advantage depending on asset class. If not already on standby, US interdiction is ~48 hours. For sure China is going to blast on all fronts, so cyber and grid interruptions combined with shock and awe are definitely gonna be a thing. It's not a great setup for Taiwan.