| ▲ | U.S. Military Was Caught Off Guard by Israeli Strike on Qatar(twz.com) |
| 65 points by vinnyglennon 5 hours ago | 66 comments |
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| ▲ | rdtsc 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > The U.S. military was unaware of the unprecedented Israeli ballistic missile strike earlier this month on a Hamas compound in Doha, Qatar, until it was already inbound This has that Dr. Strangelove feel to it. "Looks like the missile is already inbound, might as well commit to support the attack" > The IAF hit a compound where negotiators for Hamas were meeting to consider a Gaza ceasefire proposal put forward by the U.S. government. The attack killed six people Right... and someone remind us, how many billions of dollars does US send to Israel's military, directly and indirectly? |
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| ▲ | Hikikomori 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Israel sure loves killing negotiators. Most recently Iranians negotiating with USA, their own prime minister Rabin and going far back Folke Bernadotte. |
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| ▲ | dfxm12 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you take this senior military leader at their word, between this and Russia's incursion into Poland, it seems like foreign nations see the current US administration as a doormat that can be walked over. |
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| ▲ | ferguess_k 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Was it? I serious doubt NONE in the U.S. Military knew about it beforehand. |
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| ▲ | hairofadog 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I strongly suspect that as the US repeatedly burns its allies, refactors its military and intelligence leadership to center around loyalty rather than competence, and refocuses its attention on domestic critics rather than foreign adversaries, we'll find ourselves "caught off guard" more and more regularly. | | |
| ▲ | ferguess_k 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | But not with Israel, though. US has been an ardent ally of Israel, up to the point of joining the bombing of Iran and providing a significant amount of THAAD and SM-3, plus a lot more. BTW back to the original point. The reason of my suspect is: - The whole area has heavy US military existence - UK is doing some military exercise in the same area I can't imagine Israel just bomb Qatar without messaging these two. The twist is, they messaged to someone, but did not necessarily message the whole US/UK government, and that someone might as well keep the information for himself anyway. | | |
| ▲ | Tadpole9181 27 minutes ago | parent [-] | | On the other hand, Israel targeted the compound intending to kill the officials considering the US ceasefire proposal. Israel would not tell the US they were about to quite literally blow up our plans. Israel wants to continue their genocide, and we would have warned the other party (since we want our ceasefire). |
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| ▲ | nyolfen 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| the uk flew a refueling sortie out of qatar for the israelis supporting this strike. i will let you draw your own conclusions about who knew what |
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| ▲ | openasocket 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm skeptical of that claim. I'm not even sure the Israelis would need refueling assets for this. According to the DoD source in the article, the ALBMs were fired from aircraft over the red sea. That's not far from Israel. Depending on the aircraft used and the exact loadout aerial refueling would probably be unnecessary. If it was necessary, Israel has aerial refueling assets of its own: they were able to conduct a strike campaign against Iran, which is much further away, without foreign tanker support. It just doesn't make sense to me. This seems well within Israel's own capabilities. Why would they even ask another country for support? Just adds diplomatic complexities and increases the risk of the strike getting leaked. | |
| ▲ | nickdothutton 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It is my understanding that the UK refuelling system is incompatible with the one the Israelis use. Probe and drogue vs flying boom (or whatever the US/Israeli one is properly called). | | |
| ▲ | cm2187 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That surprises me, I thought all NATO planes were interoperable. Israel isn't part of NATO but their systems are mostly sold by NATO countries. US jets can't use UK tankers? | | |
| ▲ | openasocket 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Each system has its pros and cons, and as a result both methods are widely used. Even the US isn't standardized. The US Air Force I believe largely uses the boom method, while the US Navy largely uses the probe-and-drogue system. Though I believe some aerial tankers are capable of providing fuel via either method. | |
| ▲ | codyb 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think interoperability and modularity as core concepts in military design are "only" a few decades old and as such there's probably plenty of existing systems that haven't needed to be replaced yet, or can't be replaced due to constraint chains that will start fitting into that dogma over time. | |
| ▲ | ahmedfromtunis 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Even the US airforce and US navy don't use systems that are compatible between them. | |
| ▲ | moralestapia 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is this something that is known? Or is it like a military secret kind of thing? | | |
| ▲ | cm2187 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I am looking on the web and it seems to be indeed the case. It also seems UK tankers can't even fuel UK F-35, which is a bit lame. |
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| ▲ | hiatus 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Aren't their planes incompatible with the fueling requirements of the Israeli planes? | | |
| ▲ | alwayseasy 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | They are incompatible. He is lying or not smart enough to filter out propaganda. |
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| ▲ | pjc50 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Do you have confirmation of this given what people are saying below? If true it is yet another thing to complain to our MPs about. | |
| ▲ | alwayseasy 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | So you're saying the entire part about ALBMs (the crux of this article) is fake. Why not start with this then? Maybe conspiracy theories are not welcome here. |
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| ▲ | karakfa2 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Only a fool will believe that Israel will attempt this kind attack without informing US and UK counterparts and getting confirmation that they would stand down even disable the warning systems. |
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| ▲ | OgsyedIE 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| How long until this pattern of communication breaking down in the downwards direction from the admin to CENTCOM induces a reciprocal failure in communication upwards from CENTCOM to the admin? |
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| ▲ | potato3732842 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Did communications actually break down or are they just being all "oops, the bodycam was off, silly me" because "yeah, we totally knew about it" would be bad for their relationship with Qatar? | | |
| ▲ | dfxm12 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | But what's worse? Having a worse relationship with Qatar or going out of your way to look like you have an incompetent Military? |
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| ▲ | ratelimitsteve 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I believe wholeheartedly that these "breakdowns" are just manufactured deniability. Someone knew about this, or at least knew that there was something they didn't know about and didn't want to know about. I think it benefits the US immensely to have bad things happen to middle eastern states that she's not directly responsible for or even provably aware of, which is why we keep buying bombs for the guy who is continually bombing several middle eastern states at once then not asking what they're gonna do with the bombs. |
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| ▲ | 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | bilekas 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > there had been questions as to why the various highly advanced air defense systems and sensors, both American and Qatari, which would normally provide alert to an impending attack on Qatar, had not provided warning and defense. Yeah good question, and their response is basically saying that they didn't have it turned on ? > we had no indications and warnings of, because our surveillance and all our attention was not put on [it], What is the point in it then ? Surely they're there to notify you in real time? I don't buy this, maybe if I can put my tinfoil hat on, they did know but play dumb because Quatar is such a critical partner in the middle east, and to let Isreal do what they want and launch a strike would be seen very unfavorably by the Qataris. This way they get to claim "oh we didn't know about it". And expect everyone to just believe that. Or it is how they say and it feels that those notification systems are not really sufficient. |
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| ▲ | mikeyouse 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't think it's that complicated - the warning and air defense systems aren't tuned toward an attack from Israeli jets - they're looking for cruise missiles from Iran (roughly North) or Yemen (roughly South) -- the missiles from Israel were ballistic missiles fired from the West over the Red Sea. | | |
| ▲ | sudosysgen 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Houthis use long range drones and cruise missiles which can easily be fired from the West over the Red Sea. There is no plausible situation where they simply don't point the radars that way. There is also SBIRS and radars across Saudi Arabia. By far the likeliest scenario is that the US detected the attack and made the choice not to defend Qatar. | | |
| ▲ | openasocket 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The US probably was able to detect the launch, yes. But would they have assets in place to conduct an intercept in time? Different systems are meant for different targets, and physics put fairly stringent requirements on where an interceptor launcher has to be to protect a specific area. Plus you've got only a few minutes from missile launch to impact. A few minutes to figure out missiles have been launched, confirm it's not a bug or an anomaly, figure out where the target is, get that information from the person monitoring the sensors to command and control plus the missile launch crews, get authority to launch (which depending on the rules of engagement may require going high up the chain of command), get fire control radar tracking the targets (something like SBIR wouldn't be enough, the missile battery needs its own high-quality track), and then launch the interceptor. Also add that people are human beings, and that no one was expecting an eminent strike on Qatar from anyone. | | |
| ▲ | sudosysgen 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Qatar has a THAAD and Patriot installation, the former assumed to be manned by the US, which can engage these threats. The latter can detect them at a much lower range. These missiles are not especially fast given the distance they have to cover. They were in the air for 10+ minutes, more than enough time to cross check IR early warning and radar tracks. |
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| ▲ | mikeyouse 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Your second sentence is part of the answer to your first one... You'd need air launched ballistic missiles (which Israel used) to avoid detection by Saudi radars. The Houthis don't have those. You'd need jets capable of operations over the Red Sea - which the Houthis don't have. If they did have those things, they'd certainly use them to attack Israel or Riyadh, not Qatar. | | |
| ▲ | sudosysgen 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | ALBMs are not any harder to detect than normal ballistic missiles. You don't need jets to go over the Red Sea either, Houthi cruise missiles can operate over the Red Sea and then change course to hit their targets. | | |
| ▲ | mikeyouse an hour ago | parent [-] | | If you know where they’re launching from, you can equally detect ALBMs or ground launched ones - but given that ALBMs have mobile launch ‘pads’ with thousand+ mile ranges, they’re actually much harder to detect. Hence why we’ve just started rolling out the next gen OPIR this year.. You don't need jets to go over the Red Sea either, Houthi cruise missiles can operate over the Red Sea and then change course to hit their targets. You do if you want ALBMs… the “A” is pretty important for that acronym. And cruise missiles are not ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles that tracked up the Red Sea and then crossed 1,200km of Saudi Arabia while heading for Qatar would obviously be detected (and likely shot down) by US and Saudi air defenses. |
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| ▲ | limagnolia 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Except that Qatar's own systems also did not issue any early warnings. | | |
| ▲ | sudosysgen 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The system with long range detection radars (THAAD) is operated by the US, not Qatar. Qatar's radars would not be able to detect a ballistic missile until it was already too late, as detection range for BMs is only around 100km. |
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| ▲ | moralestapia 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >air defense systems aren't tuned "Oh no, our whole city was destroyed and we couldn't do anything because they changed the tuning on their missiles a day before." Mega LMAO, the things one reads these days. | | |
| ▲ | mikeyouse 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | "Tuned" as in the directional radars that makeup the backbone of their air defenses weren't looking West. The TPQ-36 has a 90º azimuth - it can literally only look in 1 direction. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar) For fixed threats - e.g. detecting Iranian strikes, the TPS-80 radars are made to be stationary to provide better coverage/resolution of the direction of incoming missiles. The US uses satellite systems that can detect ground-launched ballistic missiles - and if we're looking with our AEW&C, we can likely see an air-launched one, but we had no reason to be looking for air-launched ballistic missiles over the Red Sea. Don't take my word for it.. > The Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighters were over the Red Sea when they fired air-launched ballistic missiles, an unnamed U.S. defense official told the Associated Press. In this way, Israeli aircraft didn’t need to enter the airspace of any Middle East country, and the missiles arrived from a direction that the air defenses in Qatar were not focused on looking. The missiles would have also passed over Saudi Arabia at very high altitudes, likely outside the Earth’s atmosphere. https://www.twz.com/air/new-info-on-how-u-s-military-was-cau... |
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| ▲ | matwood 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > they did know but play dumb because Quatar is such a critical partner in the middle east They just gave Trump a jet so of course the administration will have to play dumb. People/countries will quit paying bribes if they don't get anything for them. |
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| ▲ | akagusu 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why this was flagged? |
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| ▲ | random9749832 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This just led to a defence pact with Pakistan (with nuclear weapons) and Saudi Arabia. Turkey is significantly ramping up domestic military production. The scale and threats will only increase as long as Israel continues attacking several countries. |
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| ▲ | southernplaces7 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The moderators of this site feel like explaining why they let this kind of post be flagged? No sense even guessing the idiot reason of whatever baboon did the flagging since they abound and have their own brainless logic, but the moderation at HN could adapt slightly better standards. Some pearl clutcher feel like chiming in that it's "not relevant to tech!!!?" Well, neither is this, for example, yet it's on page one of hacker news with 360+ comments and no problems with being flagged by some assclown. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45372442 |
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| ▲ | BolexNOLA 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I know this is going to sound flippant but honestly: is anyone surprised? This admin’s response said it all. It was, as usual, inconsistent from person to person and vague on details. Half the people speaking on it sounded like a student called in class who is trying to BS their way through an answer because they never read the book. |
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| ▲ | ahmedfromtunis 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Some might think of it as a feature, not a bug. | |
| ▲ | jimmydoe 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Trump essentially rebuilt GOP, so this is a brand new party taking over governing a large county, you will expect a lot of inexperienced people put into the positions. things will get better in the next 1~2 decades as they learn. btw I don't like Trump or MAGA, but this is what happens when the regime changes. When CCP won civil war and took over China, they had a lot of stupid policies, but decade later they are able to grow China to a super power. | | |
| ▲ | BolexNOLA 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | It’s been a decade and this is their second admin. This “new to the job” line wore out years ago, though if you’re going to be president I just don’t think that’s a suitable excuse to begin with. His entire pitch has always been “Me and my folks are the best for the job, everyone else is incompetent and corrupt.” The promise he made has turned out to be quite the disappointment. Hell how can anyone learn when his admin is such a revolving door and they vilify career civil servants? Here’s an idea: maybe don’t bring on Fox News pundits, podcasters, and anti-vaxxers to run your admin. Maybe don’t let the ketamine-fueled, unpredictable billionaire run around indiscriminately cutting federal programs in a legally dubious (at best) fashion. It’s not like these people were thrusted on him. As for your china example: I’d rather not go through periods of completely manufactured starvation and death. Maybe it’s naive of me to think there’s a better path forward here. People who think the only way forward is to break everything strike me as the kind of people who don’t understand how bad things can get when everything is broken. |
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| ▲ | churchill 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I always try to make sense of America's Middle East policy in a way that doesn't veer into antisemitic conspiracy theorist thinking and it just doesn't compute. At all. For instance, apart from ups and downs here and there, the Arab petro-states have been reliable US allies. Support military actions in the region, notify Western powers of their unruly citizens getting chummy with terrorists, etc. For instance, years before 9/11, Saudi Arabia expelled Bin Laden, voided his citizenship, and notified the US & allies, IIRC. They have rivers of oil & gas - a cheap, superabundant energy source. They buy hundreds of billions worth of US weapons. Spend hundreds of billions on Western contractors. Israel, by contrast, buys US weapons with US money. Basically, the US gives it to them for free. Yet, the US won't even sell their Arab allies top-end stuff. In fact, Congress has a law on the books guaranteeing Israel a Qualitative Military Edge, QME. So, America can't sell the Arabs - some of their best allies - F35s or any of the cool toys, just because Israel says so. Now, America also seems comfortable with Israel bombing their best allies, destabilizing their entire region, offending the region's Muslim majority, which weakens the legitimacy of all their royal houses. For what? The chump change AIPAC offers? What do you think these countries will do when China reaches out and offers them the new J35 stealth fighter? Egypt, which collects lots of US cash to leave Israel alone, is currently trying it out, as I'm sure, many of the other Arab states are. China's rapid rise means that they can now offer these countries weapons that match top-end Western systems 90-95%, at 30-40% of the cost. And China is a more logical, reliable geopolitical player. I just don't know. Is this erosion of American power worth it for whatever Israel is offering? |
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| ▲ | empiko 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The Arab petrostates and their citizens regularly support all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations. During the Syrian Civil War, it was a common knowledge that certain islamist groups were funded by certain states, and the states were competing with each other in this regard on the battlefield. I would also argue that the regimes in these countries are not considered particularly stable and they don't want to end up with Iran situation again. | | |
| ▲ | pessimizer 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The Arab petrostates and their citizens regularly support all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations. The US supports all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations. > During the Syrian Civil War, it was a common knowledge that certain islamist groups were funded by certain states, and the states were competing with each other in this regard on the battlefield. This is the US again. Not only that, but proud of it. We put Jalani in a suit and have Petreus give him a Barbara Walters style celebrity interview. The US poured more money into using Al Quaeda to topple the secular regime and turn it into an Islamic state than anyone else. If you believe Hillary Clinton's leaked email, we've been funding them since at least 2012. | |
| ▲ | churchill 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You were in such a haste to reply that you didn't address any point I raised. >The Arab petrostates and their citizens regularly support all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations. During the Syrian Civil War, it was a common knowledge that certain islamist groups were funded by certain states, and the states were competing with each other in this regard on the battlefield. With America's implicit consent, at least. The Washington consensus on Syria was that Assad had to go, even if it was extreme Islamist that did the work on the ground. State Dept. openly admitted in emails that al-Qaeda in Syria was an asset since they were fighting & weakening Assad's regime. And it worked! HTS, Julani's faction that ousted Assad & runs Syria today was an al-Qaeda-aligned group. They gained territory & moderated & everyone realizes letting them run the country is better. >I would also argue that the regimes in these countries are not considered particularly stable and they don't want to end up with Iran situation again. So, your way of dealing with these countries is to weaken their legitimacy by showing them up as spineless cowards that can't stand up to Israel, despite their sucking up to America? And despite the Western fictions, most countries of the Arab Gulf are extremely stable. The population is small enough to be controlled. Citizens are heavily subsidized. Power is apportioned/maintained through tribal allegiances that have lasted longer than many Western countries, in some cases. They're going nowhere. |
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| ▲ | ben_w 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Is this erosion of American power worth it for whatever Israel is offering? I have a hypothesis that empires fall when the rulers mistake their rule for the natural order of things. This mistaken worldview has the ruling classes fighting each other for control over the empire, while blinding them to the rise of other powers. | |
| ▲ | corimaith 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Not mentioning Iran in all of this looks more like a myopic view of things. | | |
| ▲ | churchill 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | You were in such a haste to share our opinion that you didn't address any point I made. If you want to weaken Iran, you need to empower the Arab states since the Sunni-Shia split is one of their points of contention. Instead, America lets Israel bomb them and proves Iran's point that America & Israel are unreliable allies at best, or enemies of Muslims at worst. |
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| ▲ | stricdder 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | mrtksn 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| There are claims that Israel considered hitting Turkey but backed off and went ahead with Qatar as they feared the destruction of NATO(US would have been obligated to support Turkey but considering the thing? between Israel & USA, the actual US response could have totally destroyed the alliance) which could lead to unconfined wider consequences to Israel. I have a prediction: Antisemitic conspiracy theories are in the pipeline to get mass popular appeal and the wider Jewish communities will suffer greatly of this. It honestly disturbs me deeply because some of the nicest and smartest people I ever met are Jewish and I developed respect and admiration towards their culture. Which puzzles me seeing what's happening in Palestine. Are they captured by cabal or something? |
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| ▲ | ben_w 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Are they captured by cabal or something? Nah, just local minima/maxima. Bunch of politicians with different interests, bunch of different polities within and outside Israel with varying agendas, some pro-Israel, some anti-Israel, some merely aligned with Israel for now but don't really care, and the same goes for Palestine. That plus patriots in every nation close their eyes and cover their ears about crimes by their nation, or make excuses when this is no longer possible. That's all just boring mundane human nature. Best I can do is try to stop people hating each other, but that's gonna be tough — and not just for any surviving Palestinians, as the October attack a few years back was proportionally worse for Israel than 9/11 was for the US, and look how long it took Americans to collectively get over that. | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree, it’s also in line with what’s happening in USA, Russia, Turkey, and some other places. They turn out not to be immune to fascism despite suffering from it greatly just a few generations ago. |
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| ▲ | kamikazeturtles 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | NATO lost its credibility when they didn't back Turkey after a Russian fighter jet violated Turkish airspace and was subsequently shot down. Or when they pulled out of Afghanistan and the world saw 20 years of occupation unravel within a couple weeks. Or when they went ahead and destroyed multiple countries without much thought. At this point, NATO is just a bully with a big stick, whacking people then scurrying back across the pond. As well as a marketplace to force allies to buy and get locked in to the American arms industry. | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | NATO did back Turkey, I don't know why its widespread narrative in Turkey but NATO provided both political support and air defence support. You can check the news from that time. Do you think that Russia didn't do anything to Turkey because they were afraid of Turkey? Turkey is a powerful country with strong and high quality military but no one is going to defeat Russia without a logistical and military support to match theirs. Ukraine is doing amazing but its thanks to the NATO. | |
| ▲ | hollerith 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >they didn't back Turkey after a Russian fighter jet violated Turkish airspace Did Turkey ask NATO for help? | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Turkey asked, help was delivered. You can tell by Russia doing nothing afterwards. |
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| ▲ | beepbooptheory 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This kind of internal conflict is precisely what Israel/AIPAC is aiming for, but its illusory. Israel, the zionist project, is not intrinsic to Judaism or Jewish culture. You don't actually need to reconcile anything with these terms, just distinguish them properly in your head. | |
| ▲ | throwaw12 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If not blackmail and subsequently lobby group activities, which should have been registered under FARA act already, what keeps US officials attached so much to Israel? Do they invest so much? Do they help Americans so much? What's there I don't know? US is giving all possible excuses, just to whitewash Israel's crimes. By now we have seen attacks on: * Iran * Qatar * Lebanon * Syria * obviously genocide in Gaza (according to UN, genocide scholars, Amnesty international and many others) | | |
| ▲ | FergusArgyll 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Saudi Arabia FARA spending: $312,465,701
Qatar FARA spending: $257,773,194
Israel FARA spending: $194,935,041 https://www.opensecrets.org/fara The "Israel lobby" is basically a hoax. US is pro Israel because its citizens are, much like the second amendment regardless of what you read on the internet | |
| ▲ | mrtksn 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There always have been questions on over representation in every single influential position, which was explained by the Ashkenazi Jews who developed reputation to be statistically gifted or the culture that was shaped to seek such professions and positions due to prosecution. But the straight up committing genocide, then US supporting that despite losing all kind of public support and the support of the allies and then Israel attacking the US allies without consequence to them is what will bring thing together and will make antisemitism mainstream and popular. Kicking people out, limiting accounts, cutting off finance and services, cancelling people, smearing people won't cut it because this thing is brewing into a perfect storm. Anyone who cares about the Jewish people should make it stop and then make it right. Or maybe this by design to "convince" Jewish minority to move to Israel so that the Israeli political class becomes more powerful? |
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