I don't think it's that complicated - the warning and air defense systems aren't tuned toward an attack from Israeli jets - they're looking for cruise missiles from Iran (roughly North) or Yemen (roughly South) -- the missiles from Israel were ballistic missiles fired from the West over the Red Sea.

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sudosysgen 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Houthis use long range drones and cruise missiles which can easily be fired from the West over the Red Sea. There is no plausible situation where they simply don't point the radars that way.

There is also SBIRS and radars across Saudi Arabia. By far the likeliest scenario is that the US detected the attack and made the choice not to defend Qatar.

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openasocket 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The US probably was able to detect the launch, yes. But would they have assets in place to conduct an intercept in time? Different systems are meant for different targets, and physics put fairly stringent requirements on where an interceptor launcher has to be to protect a specific area. Plus you've got only a few minutes from missile launch to impact. A few minutes to figure out missiles have been launched, confirm it's not a bug or an anomaly, figure out where the target is, get that information from the person monitoring the sensors to command and control plus the missile launch crews, get authority to launch (which depending on the rules of engagement may require going high up the chain of command), get fire control radar tracking the targets (something like SBIR wouldn't be enough, the missile battery needs its own high-quality track), and then launch the interceptor. Also add that people are human beings, and that no one was expecting an eminent strike on Qatar from anyone.

	▲	sudosysgen 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Qatar has a THAAD and Patriot installation, the former assumed to be manned by the US, which can engage these threats. The latter can detect them at a much lower range. These missiles are not especially fast given the distance they have to cover. They were in the air for 10+ minutes, more than enough time to cross check IR early warning and radar tracks.

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mikeyouse 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Your second sentence is part of the answer to your first one...

You'd need air launched ballistic missiles (which Israel used) to avoid detection by Saudi radars. The Houthis don't have those.

You'd need jets capable of operations over the Red Sea - which the Houthis don't have.

If they did have those things, they'd certainly use them to attack Israel or Riyadh, not Qatar.

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sudosysgen 3 hours ago | parent [-]

ALBMs are not any harder to detect than normal ballistic missiles. You don't need jets to go over the Red Sea either, Houthi cruise missiles can operate over the Red Sea and then change course to hit their targets.

	▲	mikeyouse 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		If you know where they’re launching from, you can equally detect ALBMs or ground launched ones - but given that ALBMs have mobile launch ‘pads’ with thousand+ mile ranges, they’re actually much harder to detect. Hence why we’ve just started rolling out the next gen OPIR this year.. You don't need jets to go over the Red Sea either, Houthi cruise missiles can operate over the Red Sea and then change course to hit their targets. You do if you want ALBMs… the “A” is pretty important for that acronym. And cruise missiles are not ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles that tracked up the Red Sea and then crossed 1,200km of Saudi Arabia while heading for Qatar would obviously be detected (and likely shot down) by US and Saudi air defenses.

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limagnolia 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Except that Qatar's own systems also did not issue any early warnings.

	▲	sudosysgen 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		The system with long range detection radars (THAAD) is operated by the US, not Qatar. Qatar's radars would not be able to detect a ballistic missile until it was already too late, as detection range for BMs is only around 100km.

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moralestapia 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>air defense systems aren't tuned

"Oh no, our whole city was destroyed and we couldn't do anything because they changed the tuning on their missiles a day before."

Mega LMAO, the things one reads these days.

	▲	mikeyouse 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		"Tuned" as in the directional radars that makeup the backbone of their air defenses weren't looking West. The TPQ-36 has a 90º azimuth - it can literally only look in 1 direction. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar) For fixed threats - e.g. detecting Iranian strikes, the TPS-80 radars are made to be stationary to provide better coverage/resolution of the direction of incoming missiles. The US uses satellite systems that can detect ground-launched ballistic missiles - and if we're looking with our AEW&C, we can likely see an air-launched one, but we had no reason to be looking for air-launched ballistic missiles over the Red Sea. Don't take my word for it.. > The Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighters were over the Red Sea when they fired air-launched ballistic missiles, an unnamed U.S. defense official told the Associated Press. In this way, Israeli aircraft didn’t need to enter the airspace of any Middle East country, and the missiles arrived from a direction that the air defenses in Qatar were not focused on looking. The missiles would have also passed over Saudi Arabia at very high altitudes, likely outside the Earth’s atmosphere. https://www.twz.com/air/new-info-on-how-u-s-military-was-cau...