Remix.run Logo
U.S. Added 911,000 Fewer Jobs in the Year Ended in March(wsj.com)
180 points by JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | 41 comments
gnabgib 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Ongoing discussion (177 points, 152 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45182111

more_corn 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I wonder if it’s because increasing the cost of doing business with massive tariffs nobody asked for or needs is causing businesses to get nervous and stop hiring.

Naww, must be someone else’s fault.

amradio1989 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Not to pile on, but there is a huge public misunderstanding when it comes to economic data.

The data is lagging, usually by a full year. The policies that lead to that data are from the year before data collection, at a minimum, more likely two+ years.

Economic policies generally take time to ripple through the economy. Generally. There are exceptions. Interest rates tend to affect things pretty quickly relative to other changes.

CaptWillard 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Well, seeing as this is a record of jobs created last year ... yeah.

QuizzicalCarbon 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

This data is from the Biden administration, predating the current Trump policies.

mperham 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I will point out that our labor data can no longer be trusted as the organization is no longer politically neutral. Pushing the jobs record down means more blame for Biden and a much lower bar for Trump to meet in order to "improve" future jobs numbers.

> Trump ordered McEntarfer's removal on August 1 after data showed a surprise weakening in the U.S. labor market last month. The BLS employment report revealed meaningful revisions to job figures for the prior two months that raised investor worries that the Federal Reserve may need to play catch-up with interest rate cuts.

https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-data-draw-scrutin...

NotMichaelBay 2 days ago | parent [-]

Agreed, the Trump administration is _heavily_ leaning on this as evidence to support their argument that "Biden's economy" was a "disaster":

> Today, the BLS released the largest downward revision on record proving that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken.

> The benchmark revisions make clear the economy President Trump inherited was even weaker than we thought.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/09/bls-revisions-sh...

amradio1989 2 days ago | parent [-]

The economy is not great and has not been great for years. That has been the reality for almost all Americans.

It’s very odd to make this about Trump vs Biden. This has been brewing for nearly two decades. Forever-QE made us forget about the real health of the economy.

T-A 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

It would be very odd if it didn't follow on the heels of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/04/trump-burea...

Spivak a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't think this is about the past two admins inasmuch as the current admin transparently and in the open cooking the books to shift blame and accountability off of themselves. There's nothing wrong with reevaluating how we look at the economy to be more realistic but this "adjustment" isn't that. I think every side of the political spectrum has said something to to the effect of needing to capture the disconnect between the usual signals and the face that everyone on the ground feels like they're doing worse.

Trusting a government to both decide on how best to determine a metric that also happens to be a measure of their success, collect the data themselves, and report on it always been a conflict of interest at best. And, well, we're now seeing that conflict play out. That's the sad part about this whole thing, the data could be correct but now everyone has good reason to distrust it.

anon291 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Third worldification of the United States.

goku12 2 days ago | parent [-]

Please remember that the 'Third World' doesn't refer to countries in squalor. It referred to the bloc of nations that were not aligned with either the Western bloc (First World) led by the US or the Eastern/Communist bloc (Second World) led by the USSR. Quoting directly from Wikipedia:

> Strictly speaking, "Third World" was a political, rather than economic, grouping.

> Since most Third World countries were economically poor and non-industrialized, it became a stereotype to refer to developing countries as "third-world countries".

> Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the term Third World has decreased in use. It is being replaced with terms such as developing countries, least developed countries or the Global South.

akhosravian 2 days ago | parent [-]

That’s a cool historical fact but the modern colloquial usage is synonymous with poor (financially) countries.

goku12 2 days ago | parent [-]

A 'modern colloquial usage' that's mildly described as a 'stereotype' on Wikipedia. A more precise description is that it's a revisionist redefinition that represents the disdain towards countries that refused to sacrifice their sovereignty for money, after suffering extended periods of exploitation. And it predictably undermines the historical picture of the socioeconomic realities that existed during the cold war - a picture that doesn't resemble in any way what the US is inflicting upon itself now.

pcurve 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

With all the innovation in AI, you'd think there's more accurate way to track jobs data.

morgoths_bane 2 days ago | parent [-]

it's almost like there actually isn't any innovation

cwsx 2 days ago | parent [-]

it's almost like the administration doesn't care for accurate data

heldrida 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Recession!

Ghost jobs, time wasters, unemployment, etc.

supportengineer 2 days ago | parent [-]

There must be a way to opt-out by constructing a sane, parallel world where things just work.

eMPee584 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

how about drumming up some public support for an open access post-scarcity economy where we shift focus to quality instead of profit and use our resources for building resilient planetary infrastructure...

gruez 2 days ago | parent [-]

>how about drumming up some public support for an open access post-scarcity economy where [...]

Right... as if scarcity is some sort of social construct that can be abolished by "drumming up some public support"? Maybe we should start small and start with energy scarcity, by "drumming up" some support for cold fusion?

darepublic 2 days ago | parent [-]

Its not abolishing it its about adapting to it

gruez 2 days ago | parent [-]

How should we "adapt" to the non-existence of fusion power?

darepublic 2 days ago | parent [-]

My mistake I interpreted post scarcity as post consumerist abundance

gruez 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Just like the global south "just" needs better governance to boost economic growth?

bzmrgonz 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I guess the whole labor department is gonna get fired by Trump.

notepad0x90 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Trump took office in January, so I'm guessing this has nothing to do with tariffs like people are implying? I didn't read the article (paywall), but if that is the case why was this misreported? couldn't he have just blamed biden or something? Either way, that sounds like a big number, is it interest rates that are causing this?

moc_was_wronged 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

“It’s like 911, times a thousand.”

Apes 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

People often get hyper-focused on a single cause, but there is a whole range of forces driving a sharp decline in jobs. All of this is visible, yet we are marching toward an economic crisis of our own making. I believe the best term for this is "gray rhino".

* Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty – Elevated tariffs and rapidly shifting trade policies are raising costs for manufacturers and discouraging hiring and investment (Investopedia; Atlanta Fed survey; CBO analyses).

* Automation and AI Displacement – Automation and AI, especially in low-skill occupations, are reducing new job creation and wages for some workers (academic studies in arXiv and PMC).

* Restrictive Immigration Policies – Tightened immigration and visa processes are straining labor supply, particularly in sectors that rely on immigrant workers (Axios, 2025 labor coverage).

* Small Business Strain from Economic Pressure – Tariff-related uncertainty is leading small businesses to slow hiring or lay off employees (Joint Economic Committee report, 2025).

* Offshoring and Outsourcing Trends – Technological advances are enabling offshoring and automation, substituting domestic labor with remote or machine-based alternatives (academic research in World Development, 2024).

gruez 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Is this AI generated? Besides the em-dashes, I don't think anyone cites "Investopedia" as a source (not the specific entity, but in that format), or makes citations in (source, year) format.

Apes 2 days ago | parent [-]

I created the list and had an LLM review it to ensure I wasn't just pulling stuff out of thin air. Looks like it switched my hyphens for em-dashes.

kelipso 2 days ago | parent [-]

Isn’t it usually the opposite you are supposed to do? LLM output and make sure it is factual because LLMs cannot tell what is factual or not?

I can’t even get myself to read what you “wrote” because of the LLM tinge though lol.

Apes 2 days ago | parent [-]

It seems odd that you're fixated on the tool used rather than the content itself. Do you refuse to wear clothes because a machine made them?

kentm 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Machines don’t typically make clothes that are not wearable. An LLM will produce content that is incorrect.

kelipso 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because I don’t have to waste my valuable time and mental energy to check the knitting before I wear them.

Hey I review and use LLM code slop as much as the next programmer, and I use it for lots of topics too, but I am not spending a second on reviewing LLM slop output on HN comments. Honestly it’s somewhat insulting that you expect me to.

kotaKat 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

No, I refuse to read arrogant slop that someone had to shove through a machine because they can’t think or write for themselves anymore.

woobar 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> but there is a whole range of forces driving a sharp decline in jobs

Technically, there is no decline in jobs. There were more jobs as of March 2025 than a year before. Less than reported earlier, but the overall number of jobs is still growing.

JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | parent [-]

> there is no decline in jobs. There were more jobs as of March 2025 than a year before. Less than reported earlier, but the overall number of jobs is still growing

Correct [1].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

lgleason 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't think tariffs affected the numbers for the entire year that drastically since Trump had only been in office for 2 months out of the entire years period that this was looking at.

mandeepj 2 days ago | parent [-]

> I don't think tariffs affected the numbers for the entire year

Major policy or hiring gets slowed down during the election year, especially surrounding the voting month. Maybe that pace never picked up due to tariffs and other policy uncertainty?

AlexandrB 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> * Restrictive Immigration Policies – Tightened immigration and visa processes are straining labor supply, particularly in sectors that rely on immigrant workers (Axios, 2025 labor coverage).

I like how this is always framed as strained supply instead of upward pressure on wages, as if increasing wages is simply impossible and only supply matters. Then people look at graphs like this[1] and wonder: "What the heck is going on?"

[1] https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/