> If what I'm saying is true, then to succeed you simply need to build a game that does none of the things that lead to failure.

This is true but it’s also equally true that no plan survives contact with the enemy. No one can perfectly predict the future.

The market isn’t static and everyone else is also trying to avoid doing things that will lead to failure. In some senses trying too hard is also a cause of failure because it leads to homogenization and you enter the market at the same time as everyone else with the same ideas. Games is a place where innovation can be key to success but that is also where the risk lies because it’s not clearly understandable until after the fact. This in part is why AAA seems pretty stagnant.

You have the right idea — it’s MUCH more complicated than it seems. There are more games than ever, but the market is growing (Steam in particular is exploding outside of the US), indie devs can do more with less and don’t need to use as many middlemen, and influencers regularly give games millions — or more — in free advertising. Whether the business is easier or harder is a very difficult question to answer.

This indie dev (who has made millions themselves) agrees with you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCzhyUsDHPE

If the market is spread so thin that, say, fairly original games released today would have been sure hits 15 years ago, where is the failure? Lack of six figure investment in marketing campaigns? Is creating success simply already having the capital to make a successful game? Is it being in the influencer "meta" (see right now e.g. PEAK)?

I don't think success/failure should be framed in any other way than "did the game break even for the dev/publisher" and that's beyond what any player perceives. Because crossing that line will send devs into despair, as you mentioned, it's just not sane.

Success is not 100% in control of the developer. There are plenty of outside factors that influence a game’s ability to take off and gain a lot of attention.

"It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness, that is life."

- Jean-Luc Picard

Define failure. If you mean financial failure, there are hundreds of examples. Perhaps thousands. A game that sells well can be a financial disaster. Bioshock Infinite sold millions of copies and it was the final nail in the coffin of the its developer.

Yes but it's difficult to distinguish your game from theirs in the search results. It's not like people play a demo of every game and then buy the best one

Someone on YouTube recently looked at exactly what those 50 games are. She tried to give all the ones she bought (she looked at most of the 50 in the store) a fair shake, tried to "find the fun" and give it an honest assessment while trying to at least get a laugh out of it.

Video here (fun watch!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6_qbe26m9E

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Though I'll summarize what she played that was released on August 4th, 2025, of what she chose to buy:

* "The Last Mage" was a game produced very cheaply by apparently a lone gal (the videographer found the dev diary) that was a fan of K-pop, levered heavily on existing assets, to produce a campy idea as best she could.

* "You Suck at Football" levered existing "viral game" ideas like "Only Up". Very much someone's early attempts.

* "Velocity Racing 1000" was a racing game that appeared like someone's early attempts. Very wonky controls and physics.

* "Potato Cop" is a simple action game in an deliberately "amateur style", likely produced very quickly and cheaply. She had fun with it though.

* "Escape from Amazonia" is an horror game with a quirky plot premise that did elicit some actual screams. Again, produced very quickly and cheaply, but she had some fun with it.

* "Descent" was a horror game with some genuine attempts on the presentation side, and again elicited some screams. Some clear effort there. Someone was on to something with this one, and it's a shame they didn't refine it further.

* "Agu" is a crude, early access, challenging platformer. This won't go anywhere, but the videographer made the best of it and had some fun with the sheer difficulty of overcoming the physics.

* "Bee Simulator: The Hive" had some FANTASTIC presentation and assets. Localized for 14 languages. Great voiceover. Somewhat educational. It's apparently a re-release of a previous game which is why it has poor reviews. Some quirks and bugs, but some might really enjoy it.

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So are you really "competing" with 50 other games if you put out something extremely high quality and polished? No. You might be competing with 5... at most. If you put out a genuine banger and took the time to market it in advance, you should get noticed.

Steam's algorithms clearly are doing a good job and ensuring most of this stuff isn't getting much visibility outside of release. Though it's there to find if you deliberately look to unearth all of it.

Machine-assisted syncopation is what I’m saying. Human syncopation is skills.

Maybe it's the quality of the popularized music that isn't on par?

A billboard top ten from the 90s or 70s is going to have legendary music on it.

A recent top ten is going to be ...well Rick will tell you it's pretty bad, maybe something passable once in a while.

But I think it's possible that there is a lot more quality music than there ever has been. It's just not rising up past the mumble rap, auto tune pop, or Taylor Swift copycats. Even Rick gets very excited about new music once in a while. Symptom Of Life by WILLOW comes to mind.

Yeah...

A few weeks ago I had the opportunity to talk with one of the musicians who played at a friend's wedding.

They turned out to be absurdly skilled musicians in general who can each play multiple instruments and genres. They've got their own songs, their own musical tastes, their own selection of tracks that they really enjoy playing for their audiences.

And yet they are reduced to playing popular radio stuff to make money. Lowest common denominator stuff that gets pumped out like products to a wide global audience. That's what people ask them to play.

It just feels soulless.