You have the right idea — it’s MUCH more complicated than it seems. There are more games than ever, but the market is growing (Steam in particular is exploding outside of the US), indie devs can do more with less and don’t need to use as many middlemen, and influencers regularly give games millions — or more — in free advertising. Whether the business is easier or harder is a very difficult question to answer.

This indie dev (who has made millions themselves) agrees with you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCzhyUsDHPE

This video is great but ironically it is largely about marketing which includes all the positioning, market analysis and case for the game as well as PR and advertising.