| ▲ | favflam 2 days ago |
| This situation feels dumb. I feel like I am watching idiots cheer on someone doing parkor and that person getting his teeth smashed on a wall. Like, what is the point? |
|
| ▲ | ajmurmann 2 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| The implementation is also needlessly fumbled. All these shippers are suspending their service temporarily because this is all so rushed. Normally there would be larger lead times for changes like this and shippers and importers could adjust their processes and businesses with less friction. And that's not even accounting for the fact that there is little reason to believe that many of these changes might never actually take effect or be rolled back soon. So much cost that could have been avoided! |
| |
| ▲ | _verandaguy 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Unfortunately, Americans chose to elect an administration which is either unwilling to learn why a federal bureaucracy has to move slowly sometimes, or who is actively leveraging that precedent to undo it. | |
| ▲ | x0x0 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's like letting the idiots on here claiming you can build twitter in a weekend run our country. Anyone who spend 30 seconds thinking would understand that spinning up the logistics to collect hundreds of millions if not billions of payments would take some real doing. Instead, we're gifted mr "it's obvious and easy". | |
| ▲ | shadowgovt 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is one of the larger effects of Trump's rule-by-EO approach that I think people are coming to realize: The US government moves slow and the US is big. Big-and-slow can be planned for. Big-and-fast cannot be planned for and is, in fact, hugely disruptive. Apart from all other parameters, the US does poorly with tyrannical-style rule because it's bad for business. | | |
| ▲ | ajmurmann 2 days ago | parent [-] | | You could rule by EO and just have them take effect further out, no? | | |
| ▲ | shadowgovt 2 days ago | parent [-] | | And, indeed, it could be argued that past administrations have done that. Congressional deadlock has been an issue in the US for quite some time, and the administration has to go on anyway. Off the top of my head, I am reminded of Obama essentially ceding control of marijuana policy to the states by making it clear to the ATF that prosecuting federal possession crime in states that had legalized the drug was legal, within their authority... And a short path to locking in a desk job at their current level indefinitely. But when previous administrations did this, they (usually, as far as I know) consulted with domain experts on predictable consequences and set timelines to factor that in. This administration seems to have "effective immediately" as the only timeframe it's aware of. | | |
| ▲ | ajmurmann a day ago | parent [-] | | Nah, that's unfair! "Two weeks" seems to be a very popular timeframe as well. |
|
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | mullingitover 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H. L. Mencken |
| |
| ▲ | uncircle 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." - Winston Churchill [disputed] | | |
| ▲ | coryrc 2 days ago | parent [-] | | What's your alternative? I'm serious. (Mine is multi-member ranked voting (NOT IRV)). | | |
| ▲ | uncircle 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Can’t get into details in a forum comment, but I’ll say that whatever we have in most of the Western world ain’t very democratic. It is a spectrum, that currently skews very hard towards plutarchy. The positive thing about having a king is that there was only one head to cut when things got out of hand. Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44887634 I’m no monarchist, but it’s about time to have a serious discussion about political philosophy instead of hiding behind the “Western representative democracy is the best we can do” cliché. | | |
| ▲ | nine_k 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > only one head to cut when things got out of hand. History has been showing time and again that it's an illusion. Bad governance structures and corruption get entrenched, and gladly plead allegiance to a new king. |
| |
| ▲ | zahlman 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "Democracy" is the form of government; you are speaking of voting systems, which are an implementation detail, and not in the same natural category. "Alternatives to democracy" are things like despotism, monarchy, communism, fascism etc. | | |
| ▲ | nine_k 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Aristocratic republics have been doing quite well for some time: Florence, Venice, Genoa in the Mediterranean, much of the Hanseatic league and places like Novgorod, and later the Dutch Republic, in the north. | | |
| ▲ | Gud a day ago | parent [-] | | well for whom? | | |
| ▲ | uncircle 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | Reading between the lines of your question, I'll pre-empt you: nowhere, not even in our so called democracies are the poor doing better than the rich and powerful. |
|
| |
| ▲ | coryrc 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's a spectrum. If we're being pedantic, the US is already not a Democracy, but a Democratic Republic. | | |
| ▲ | zahlman 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It has always been a constitutional republic by design; its status as a representative democracy is the result of a tradition of electoral college voters deciding to be "faithful" and listen to their constituents (overriding them is to my understanding a constitutional right). | |
| ▲ | runarberg 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don‘t think it is a spectrum either (if we are even more pedantic), or at least no a linear scale spectrum, but rather a system of government where democratic institutions ensure certain rights and privileges to common citizens and residents. So maybe a multidimensional spectrum where if you fail to meet a vaguely defined and constantly evolving threshold you are not a democracy. The USA today will probably (and hopefully) not be considered a democracy by some future standard. Disqualifications may include: * limited suffrage, * limited or unequal access to health care and education for a significant portion of the population, * convoluted voting system where certain demographics have little to no chance to pursue public office, * large constituencies, * non-state territories/districts with little to no representation at the national level, * unincorporated populated areas, with little to no representation at the local level, * a lack of clear separation of power between the different democratic institution, * failure to enact popular policies, * police violence, * the death penalty, * a large wealth gap, * a lack of consumer protection, * a lack of worker rights, * failure to prosecute the rich and powerful for their crimes, * a large nuclear armed military which constantly engages in imperialist actions, * failure to respect the sovereignty of other states, * etc. I think describing this system as a Democratic Republic offers no insight into whether it is democratic or not (or how democratic it is on this spectrum). Republic just means that there is a president which holds some the executive power. There is far more insight into calling the USA a capitalistic aristocracy, a two party state, a militaristic imperial superpower, a flawed, unequal, and underrepresented democracy, a police state, etc. | | |
| ▲ | zahlman 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Disqualifications may include I don't see why; many of those have nothing to do with what I would understand the concept of "democracy" to entail. | | |
| ▲ | runarberg 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | I am predicting (and hoping) that the concept of democracy will continue to shift towards ever greater inclusion and increased human rights as it has in the past two centuries, and a future vision of democracy would disqualify the current system as undemocratic for some of the points above. Just like how we don’t view pre-civil rights USA as democratic by modern standards. For example, we would never consider a country with legalized slavery to be democratic today. Similarly a future concept of democracy is unlikely to consider a country which practices the death penalty to be democratic by that hypothetical future standard. |
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | shadowgovt 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | One alternative that has been tried (and is, arguably, still being tried) is Constitutional Republic. The difference is that some things get hammered into a Constitution and are indisputable without a significant process. That counterweights the populist "half of everyone is below average" effect. Someone convinces a whole bunch of people that maybe slavery is actually super useful sometimes? Thirteenth amendment. A city wants to yank guns from people because everyone is panicking about shootings? Second amendment. Disney wants copyright to last forever because they're Disney? "securing for limited Times" phrasing in the Constitution. And so on. It has its own weaknesses but one advantage is that change comes slower. This can be a problem when the past is on the wrong side of history, but it's a nice-to-have feature when the political temperature turns up and the odds of moving fast (and breaking things) increase. It's probably a good thing that no matter how dumb any given American is, they can't legally sell themselves into slavery (even if they can get damn close). | | |
| ▲ | ghssds 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > Someone convinces a whole bunch of people that maybe slavery is actually super useful sometimes? Thirteenth amendment. Actually the thirteenth amendment explicitely allows slavery to exist in a case a whole bunch of people (maybe even yourself) think is super useful. | | |
| ▲ | shadowgovt 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I was handwaving around the exception for criminals, but I concede your point: it's an oversimplification to say slavery is strictly illegal. (One can also make some interesting arguments around the notion of the draft). |
| |
| ▲ | mullingitover 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The difference is that some things get hammered into a Constitution and are indisputable without a significant process. Yes, but there's an alternative 'significant process' which is to simply have a political party capture the body which interprets the constitution, and then an elite group of powerful insiders captures the political party, and then you're just an oligopoly but with additional steps. | | |
| ▲ | shadowgovt 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Definitely. But, for what it's worth, that's a process that takes decades and requires an electorate profoundly asleep at the wheel. Like one that fumbles an election during a pivotal year that decides the timbre of their judicial system for a generation. Certainly not impossible though. |
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | nine_k 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | No learning, and if fact, no stable control, is possible without negative feedback. Voters are bound to a make serious mistake time to time, and make conclusions from the outcome. This negative feedback is vital, as long as it's not fatal. (That latter seems to be needing serious attention lately.) |
|
|
| ▲ | ShakataGaNai 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It is. The original claim was that De minimis exceptions were being used to ship drugs into the USA from (insert hand wavy racist statements here about anything South of Texas). Then it was "because unfair". Then they terminated de minimis for all countries. I don't think anyone is cheering. At least most of the people cheering are starting to realize it's actually their face planting into the cement. |
| |
|
| ▲ | ModernMech 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you're honestly asking what's the point, the literal answer is the entire federal government has realigned itself to support Trump's ego. That's literally its entire purpose now, without exaggeration. If something is bad for Trump's ego, it will not happen no matter how good it is for the country. Conversely, if Trump wants something to happen, it's going to no matter how bad it is for the rest of us. Or at least that's how they see it. Tariffs are happening because it's an idea he came up with 40 years ago when he was in his prime and it stuck to him. And no one is doing anything to stop the tariffs, despite everyone knowing better, because the people in power can't tell him "no", because that would hurt his ego. You see what he does to people who hurt his ego? They get mocked on social media, deported to a foreign gulag, they and/or their spouse gets fired, their company gets investigated or loses grants, or their house gets raided by the FBI. So everyone has to go along with it no matter how dumb it is. |
| |
| ▲ | aworks 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I read an article in Foreign Affairs that calls this "personalism." | | |
| ▲ | ModernMech 2 days ago | parent [-] | | This one I presume? https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/new-dictators Notice the date -- 2016. This has been brewing for a long time, and I will never forgive / forget that the people who recognized it and called it out early [1] were mocked and ridiculed to no end. They were shunned in their professions, called alarmists, and liars. But they were right the whole time, they were just ahead of the curve. If we had just listened to them, this could have all been avoided. [1] https://medium.com/@Elamika/the-unbearable-lightness-of-bein... (also from 2016, as far as I know the first person to make the connection between Trump's narcissism and his inevitable attempt to become a dictator. She predicted January 6 five years before it happened just by pattern matching his personality disorder to dictators of the past). |
|
|
|
| ▲ | philwelch 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| De minimis allows people to evade tariffs by simply drop shipping each individual product all the way from China or wherever, so long as the retail price is below the threshold. I’m skeptical of tariffs in general but if you’re going to have them, it makes sense to close the loopholes. |
| |
| ▲ | someotherperson 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | So execute it for China alone. The issue is that these blanket actions are lazy at best and exclusively populist. | | |
| ▲ | timr 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > So execute it for China alone. The issue is that these blanket actions are lazy at best and exclusively populist. Same argument. If there's a country that doesn't get tariffs, that country will very quickly become the leading global exporter to the US. It's the same thing for the "penguin island" that everyone mocked: if you put high tariffs on every place but penguin island, it will soon be Penguin Island Logistics Center. Setting aside judgment of the tariff policy and the chaotic implementation, it does make sense to make them blanket actions. Much of the byzantine nature of our existing supply chains is due to gaming of international tariff policy. | | |
| ▲ | someotherperson 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > If there's a country that doesn't get tariffs, that country will very quickly become the leading global exporter to the US No it won't lol, that's not how international logistics work. You don't just flick a switch overnight. Maybe measured in the order of years... in which case the policies can be adjusted. They clearly think this works for taxing Americans given how huge the tax code is. > same thing for the "penguin island" that everyone mocked: if you put high tariffs on every place but penguin island, it will soon be Penguin Island Logistics Center Penguin island was stupid because it reflected how lazy the policies they applied are. It clearly showed that the Trump administration doesn't fundamentally understand what trade deficits are nor does it have an actual, well thought out plan. The only thing Penguin island has in common with this is that both actions are incredibly lazy and superficial. The Trump admin needs to get serious. | | |
| ▲ | timr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > No it won't lol, that's not how international logistics work. You don't just flick a switch overnight. I didn't say "overnight". But if you don't think it would happen, you haven't been paying attention: it has been happening for decades. It's not a crazy thing to consider when establishing a tariff policy. > Penguin island was stupid because it reflected how lazy the policies they applied are. It clearly showed that the Trump administration doesn't fundamentally understand what trade deficits are nor does it have an actual, well thought out plan. The only thing Penguin island has in common with this is that both actions are incredibly lazy and superficial. The Trump admin needs to get serious. Flinging names ("lazy", "superficial") is not an argument. You've obviously decided that these actions are stupid -- maybe they are! [1] -- and nobody is going to convince you otherwise, but I just gave you a plausible reason that you'd choose to do it this way. [1] I don't personally like these policies, but I'm willing to admit when something I don't like as a whole makes sense in part. |
| |
| ▲ | Symbiote a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Exports have a country of origin declared. If I post something from Denmark to Canada, they want to know the origin of the goods. If it's China, the China tariffs (if any) apply rather than the Denmark/EU ones. If the declaration is incorrect, the goods can be siezed or returned. Penguin Island is a nature preserve (the whole thing), no one is building anything. | | |
| |
| ▲ | philwelch 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | China isn’t the only country that drop ships. |
| |
| ▲ | Ekaros 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | But at least ensure you can then get paid... Which seems to be hang here. Failure to tell how to pay those tariffs... | |
| ▲ | anigbrowl 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Baby, bathwater. For every person abusing it by splitting shipments (easily detectable and prosecutable) I'd bet there are many more taking their first small steps into entrepreneurship with goods or parts worth $100 or $500. | | |
| ▲ | philwelch 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Splitting shipments is different from drop shipping. Splitting shipments would be if, instead of moving a whole container of goods from a Chinese warehouse to a US warehouse, you just mail each item over by itself. Drop shipping is when you mail each item directly to the end customer. | | |
| ▲ | anigbrowl 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, that's why I wrote 'splitting shipments'. I don't think drop shipments to a bunch of different customers should be tariffed, that's why the de minimis exception exists in the first place. |
|
| |
| ▲ | OutOfHere 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | De minimis is used a lot more by individuals than by corporations. People shouldn't have to pay tariffs on necessary medicines or any other items for personal non-commercial use. Tariffs aren't even justified, as they're anti-free-market, anti-capitalistic, and the government provides no extra services. It's equivalent to an illegal federal sales tax. If anything, the government has been cutting major services. | |
| ▲ | actionfromafar 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah dodge the steel tariffs in small envelopes! |
|
|
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I don’t see why we should allow 0% imports but be shut out of exports. Yes yes according to some chart this is actually a good thing but I find it unfair. For centuries the theory was mercantilism which is the highest imbalance of trade in your favor is good. The last century was Keynesian “deficits don’t matter” where taken to its conclusion, the worst possible imbalance is good, because that means they have to reinvest their dollars which supports the US, blah blah. I’m open to the experiment where targeting a balanced trade with all countries as the goal. Using tariffs where imbalances exist, especially when countries arbitrarily lock your goods out of their markets, is a tool for fixing this. One reason the US is so fucked up for the lower and middle classes is our global reserve currency and how it provides increasing pressure on the dollar and slowly deindustrializes our society. This has been pushing us towards ever more radical politics |
| |
| ▲ | favflam 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | My middle school 7th grade civics class told me that this conversation happens in Congress in Congressional hearings. I get to hear my Rep ask questions. There is a Congressional research office that acts as a kind of neutral arbiter of truth allowing for evidenced based instructions. Then, after weeks or months, a consensus builds and Congress passes a law and tells the President what to do (hence Congress=Article ONE -> two). Now, I get to watch a single person dictating tax rates and dumb twitter threads doing a horrific job replacing what I described above. I could debate you on the merits of your comment, but my real point is that before you wreck the lives of millions of people, you should make sure most people are onboard with all the consequences (1st order and 2nd order effects). | | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Our middle school 7th grade civics classes taught us a heavily simplified version of civics suitable for 7th graders. The canonical story of how legislation works bears no resemblance to, for example, the process around NAFTA when some of us were in 7th grade - Congress was not invited to participate in negotiations nor permitted to substantially amend the agreement. | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Trump is able to this this because the other branches of government are not stopping him, because his party has control and he is a very strong executive. A prior historical US example would be FDR, who my teachers growing up simply adored, who strong armed many aggressive executive policies through and radically reshaped America for a century. |
| |
| ▲ | tzs 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > I’m open to the experiment where targeting a balanced trade with all countries as the goal Do you mean balanced trade as a whole, so it would be OK to have deficits or surpluses with individual countries as long as the total surpluses match the total deficits? Or do you mean trade with each individual country should be balanced? | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I would be interested in balancing trade with each individual country, with magnitude of deficit taken into account (i.e. a tiny island country would have vastly less impact than China). Tariffs artificially increase costs of goods with another country. That should incentivize purchasing the goods from other countries, with the cheapest being our own. Of course we have very high labor costs, and lack a huge supply chain, and on and on. But China only 50 years ago had very little of the same, and America systematically de-industrialized, teaching other countries, moving the kit, and so on, until we lost the ability to make things at scale cheaply ourselves. But the same thing can happen in reverse, there is nothing inherently impossible about having Americans build and run factories, with the benefit of robots and AI and all the latest tools. | | |
| ▲ | tzs a day ago | parent [-] | | I don't see how balancing with each individual country makes sense. Suppose for example the US needs to buy some natural resource from country X, which the US uses to build something that it sells to country Y at a very large profit. Suppose that the US doesn't export anything that country X needs or wants. Balancing trade with X would mean cutting back on importing that natural resource, which would cut back on how much the US can build to sell to Y. There will almost certainly also be loops in the graph of imports and exports. Things like A exports to B exports to C exports to A, with A, B, and C all having net balanced trade, but with each have a trade surplus with one of the others and a trade deficit with one. If they all tried to force balanced trade with tariffs they just all end up paying more with no actual change in trade except possibly a reduction all around in the volume of trade. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr a day ago | parent [-] | | This would be an optimization problem and there would need to be far more nuance. But the goal would be balance, without persistent overwhelming differences in trade deficits. |
|
|
| |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > The last century was Keynesian “deficits don’t matter” where taken to its conclusion, the worst possible imbalance is good, because that means they have to reinvest their dollars which supports the US, blah blah. You're blaming the wrong economist. Keynes believed that trade deficits are a big problem and tariffs are an effective policy to remediate them. | |
| ▲ | actionfromafar 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Another reason is the weird fetish for pumping the spoils of the strong dollar into medical middlemen and tax cuts for billionaires. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I see an argument for tax cuts everywhere. Taxes are literally brakes on financial transactions. The number 1 way to slow down your economy is to tax every transaction possible as highly as possible. It is an interesting thought experiment to eliminate income and sales taxes, and try to only finance the government via tariffs. How we redirect money to the medical system is so completely insane it must be the #1 place politicians get their graft from. It’s just so insane | | |
| ▲ | fzeroracer 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > I see an argument for tax cuts everywhere. Taxes are literally brakes on financial transactions. The number 1 way to slow down your economy is to tax every transaction possible as highly as possible. It is an interesting thought experiment to eliminate income and sales taxes, and try to only finance the government via tariffs. Then you don't actually see an argument for tax cuts everywhere. What you want is a tax that you agree with, that disproportionately affects people you don't care about. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | My preferred way would also to be to eliminate expenditures, but failing that, redirecting taxes in a way that grows the US internal economy as much as possible, and incentives the re-industrialization simultaneously, is an interesting experiment. | | |
| ▲ | selectodude 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Everybody wants to reindustrialize yet I don’t see a lot of people signing up to work in a factory. Why don’t you go be the change you seek? | |
| ▲ | GuinansEyebrows 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Eliminating US government expenditures would obliterate the entire economy overnight. | | |
| ▲ | monero-xmr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I would not literally eliminate expenditures but as we cut the total taxation we similarly reduce spending 1 for 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|