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bko 2 days ago

> Homeless people, new mothers and low-income Americans all over the country received thousands of dollars. And it's practically invisible in the data. On so many important metrics, these people are statistically indistinguishable from those who did not receive this aid.

> I cannot stress how shocking I find this and I want to be clear that this is not “we got some weak counterevidence.”

I don't think this is surprising when considering personal experience with people, at least not for me.

I know people with various degrees of success in their lives. For instance, you meet someone who is chronically broke. At first, you empathize and see them as more or less a victim of misfortune. Unseen car repair bills, job losses, etc. But if its someone you follow over years and get to know, you begin to realize a lot of their problems are self inflicted. For instance, they may get a new job with a big pay raise. But they just adjust their spending up. Some windfall that could turn things around becomes a vacation. And so on.

The same is true with other personal problems. Like the perpetually single person, who upon further examination, doesn't do anything to help their chances. Or the overweight person with a thyroid problem, that really just over indulges.

Helping people we're close to and love is hard enough. I can't imagine just solving some strangers problems by writing them a check

catigula 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

The problem is that cash windfalls don't build wealth. You need consistent income to do much of anything in this world that matters that can be traced, tracked, expressed in credit reports and used to back loans for serious purchases like cars and homes.

If you simply gave young people $100k - which is a number nobody is seriously throwing around - what do you think they would materially gain from it? Very little. Their ability to purchase a home is still income-based and far more than a $100k windfall in many parts of the US can sustain for much time at all and everything else is just a slow bleed.

creer a day ago | parent | next [-]

> what do you think [young people] would materially gain from [$100k]? Very little.

Little? It would remove most of the obstacles in their life: Move away from shitty parents or neighborhoods. Allow Finish their studies without having to hold a job at the same time. Allow a decent job search. Rent near work. Become the foundation for long term investing. Have a decent minimal-breakdowns car if useful where they live/work. Have a safety reserve in case shit happens. After a little time building a credit record, become the down payment for their home (if that's worthwhile on their trajectory), etc, etc.

I would argue though that $100k may not by itself achieve much if - in general - lack of good example, lack of good counsel, presence of terrible "friends", mental illness, etc.

In spite of some views on HN, "normal job" is still the way to a comfortable life for most.

RhysU 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> ...what do you think they would materially gain from it?

$100K at age 20 can become $1.6M by age 60, per the rule of 72, if invested in a diversified stock index with 7% total return. At age 60, the 4% safe-withdrawal rule says that $1.6M might provide $64K/year indefinitely.

So, they could gain a hell of a lot from $100K when young. The trick is saving/investing/time.

conductr 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

1.6m in 40 years probably won’t move the needle much more than 100k does today. Besides that, we’re not trying to solve peoples distant retirements we’re trying to solve peoples lives today , or that’s how I interpret the article

toshinoriyagi 2 days ago | parent [-]

100K at 7% (market rate adjusted for inflation) is 1.6M after 40 years, so that would be 1.6M in today's buying power. Pretty good by the vast majority of peoples' standards.

conductr 2 days ago | parent [-]

What happens to stock market when everyone is given 100k to invest? The inflation adjustment is likely understated as you’re basing on historical factors and this is large macro shock to the system that needs to be adjusted for as well.

I also still don’t think this helps most people during the bulk of their lives. Most people in this cohort don’t save now, having knowledge of a more secure retirement wouldn’t change much for them. It’s not like they can turn off 401k contributions and have extra pocket money today.

catigula 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This probably seems very relevant to you if you're elderly and not so relevant if you don't have a home.

RhysU 10 hours ago | parent [-]

It's only relevant if you are young. The elderly don't have the 40 years.

nly 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So for 44 years of their life it won't help them at all.

bb88 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

† Of course, that is assuming over the 40 years that politician and corporations don't try to screw people out of their investments.

more_corn 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is exactly the wrong thing for a 20yr old to do with 100k. (Assuming they have no other assets) When I was 20 I needed a reliable car (having an unreliable car subjected me to periodic unplanned multi thousand dollar shocks), buying books for school (individual stem textbooks cost a couple hundred bucks) Yes I should have started an investment account but given my other finances I should have been putting in modest amounts every month, but frankly when daily life is costing more than you make it doesn’t make sense to earn 8% while incurring debt that costs 15%. I’d say the trick is stability. The uncertainties of young life with no money cause things to cost more than they should.

RhysU 8 hours ago | parent [-]

If my children had a $100K windfall this is precisely what I would tell them to do assuming they had an emergency fund and no debt. If not, I would tell them to create an emergency fund, pay off reasonable debt, and then to invest the rest for 40 years.

Read and internalize https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Prioritizing_investments. It is simple. It is immensely useful.

bko 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Cash windfalls can absolutely build wealth.

Think of it another way, I hear that big cash expenses can destroy wealth. For instance, if you have no cash reserves, that means you may rely on pay day lenders. You can't afford a Costco membership. You don't have a car so you're limited on where you can work and shop. You cannot afford some vocational training or some time off to train. There are a lot of things that can save or make you money long term.

Also 100k invested in the market will yield you probably around 7k, which is a lot, especially you don't touch it and let it compound.

catigula 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Think about what you're saying.

100k invested in the market - untouched - will decay a certain percentage a year in purchasing power due to inflation but will outpace it due to returns.

How many years until that cash windfall changes your life?

The answer is "indefinite" years, especially if you're actually using the funds to do anything, i.e. withdrawing them and preventing compound interest.

In 20 years you might be able to get into a home with the cash if you've absolutely touched not even a penny of it but A. you likely haven't and B. you probably still can't get into a home, 20 years later.

Of course, the number is fake, nobody is handing out 100k.

Jensson 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> Of course, the number is fake, nobody is handing out 100k.

Lotteries are, there are studies on those.

bko 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> 100k invested in the market - untouched - will decay a certain percentage a year in purchasing power due to inflation but will outpace it due to returns.

What's your point? That inflation is a thing? The S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.33% since 1957, but when adjusted for inflation, the real return drops to 6.47%.

> In 20 years you might be able to get into a home with the cash

Why are you hung up on owning a home? There are 100 other things you could do w/ a windfall with a better return than buying a home. Invest in education is probably one of the more high return things you can do w/ a windfall

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average...

IAmBroom 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Cash windfalls can absolutely build wealth.

Yes, but that's facile.

Do they, commonly? No.

> Also 100k invested in the market will yield you probably around 7k, which is a lot, especially you don't touch it and let it compound.

You came so close to getting the point, and then kept walking with your own predetermined idea! "Why don't these single-income, struggling mothers and unemployed homeless people just take this cash and invest it?" is the most privilege-laden, oblivious idea I've heard in a while.

next_xibalba 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I think the idea behind these types of programs is not to solve all problems or realize all goals of its beneficiaries, but rather to provide some cushion against small financial upsets that would otherwise derail a person living on the edge of insolvency.

catigula 2 days ago | parent [-]

It seems like the evidence falsifies this idea, though.

Just based on what I'm reading it's very likely that your idea of how people are railed or de-railed from life success might not comport entirely with reality, i.e. there aren't really small financial problems that people ride the razor's edge to insolvency.

My understanding of financial problems is that they can only be resolved through huge cash infusions (likely about enough to buy a home outright) or through long-term cash infusions (i.e. a guaranteed well-paying job).

We don't have any mechanisms to provide these things to people, the costs of living are too extreme. I can't suggest anything better, I'm just pointing out the issue.

IAmBroom 2 days ago | parent [-]

3rd option that has evidence-based success: Universal Basic Income.

ryandrake 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> For instance, you meet someone who is chronically broke. At first, you empathize and see them as more or less a victim of misfortune. Unseen car repair bills, job losses, etc. But if it's someone you follow over years and get to know, you begin to realize a lot of their problems are self inflicted. For instance, they may get a new job with a big pay raise. But they just adjust their spending up. Some windfall that could turn things around becomes a vacation. And so on.

AND, they are enabled and pushed into this mentality by other, also-not-very-financially-savvy people in their lives. When that once in a lifetime $1,000 windfall comes in, everyone around them tells them "Come on, blow it on a vacation! You shouldn't deny yourself a little luxury if it makes you feel good! You can't just eat ramen every day, here's your chance to live a little!" and suddenly they're back where they started, pre-windfall.

7speter 2 days ago | parent [-]

1000 dollars for a vacation?

Brian_K_White 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

It is stupid to fixate on the specific number $1000.

It's just a placeholder for wharever number makes sense in the clearly expressed context. Either substitute $5000 or $10000, or substitute whatever location or demographic you imagined (since none was specified) for some other location or demographic. You can't start in the US and vacation in Venice for $1000, but you absolutely can vacation somewhere else and/or somehow else.

Or, just pretend they said whatever other number you like, because the specific amount was not material to the point they were expressing.

Jensson 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Covers train tickets and hotel for a week if you don't choose an expensive hotel. For a poor person that is much better than nothing.

firesteelrain 2 days ago | parent [-]

I just went on business travel with the lowest possible fare and it was more than $1k. Stayed in a cheap hotel too.

And that included zero activities

IAmBroom 2 days ago | parent [-]

I just went on vacation for two weeks, and it cost me about $100 in gas.

Anecdotes are fun!

firesteelrain 2 days ago | parent [-]

What is your point? Please add value to the conversation instead of snark

AnimalMuppet 2 days ago | parent [-]

I thought that the point was quite obvious. Are you sure you're not deliberately trying not to see it? Because if so, re-read your own last sentence.

firesteelrain a day ago | parent [-]

No it’s not obvious. I was pointing out that it’s not cheap to go on vacation. I think you are the one missing the point. Several points up GP says “1000 to go on vacation?”

AnimalMuppet a day ago | parent [-]

The conversation was about the expense of going on vacation. You then said that you went on a business trip (not vacation), and that the cheapest fare plus a cheap hotel was more than $1000. They replied that they went on vacation (more relevant than business travel) for $100. That is, they supplied a counter-data-point to your data point.

Then they pointed out that both your data point and theirs were anecdotes (I guess that's what a single data point is), rather than actual data.

So their point was that they have experience that contradicts yours, and that neither their experience nor yours does anything to advance the conversation, because they're both just anecdotes.

As I said, I thought that was very obvious from their post.

So, we're back at Jensson's post from a day ago, with both you and IAmBroom having supplied contradictory anecdotes, and neither having supplied any data. So, do you want to add some data?

ryandrake 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Actually, the conversation was more generally about the mentality of chronically broke people, but as often happens on HN, one reply fixated on a single word (or number in this case), lost the forest for the trees, and derailed the whole topic.

firesteelrain a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I get that anecdotes aren’t data, but the way it was phrased came off a bit snarky. I’m happy to share my experience without turning this into a debate.

margalabargala 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I honestly am not sure whether you think $1000 is way too much or way too little for a vacation, and am curious which you thought.

2 days ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
MisterTea 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

It's an example not to be taken literally.

next_xibalba 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yours exactly mirrors my own experiences with people who have chronic problems in life. It has been dispiriting in some ways, but freeing in others. The feeling of “if I could just do <x> for them” gives way to an acceptance about the limits of our power to influence others and an accompanying lightening of emotional burden.

bko 2 days ago | parent [-]

It's really hard accepting this, which is why I believe younger people are more naive. It's easier to believe everyone is a victim, but with enough life experience and experience a larger variety of people, you learn that not everyone is just like you. There are huge discrepancies in competence, seriousness, work ethic and a million other things.

Victims absolutely exist, but the best working assumption is that someone has the results they have due to personal decisions. And this equally applies to yourself. If you feel something is wrong or missing in your life, it's best to assume its based on decisions that you made.

simonask 2 days ago | parent [-]

Isn’t it pretty obvious that it’s possible to be a victim of more than specific financial circumstances or poor health?

The inheritance we (don’t) get is not just monetary, it is attitude, culture, expectations, education, network, class privilege, race privilege, and a host of other things that make it difficult to act “rationally”, or which change the parameters of what is rational for each individual.

Lack of money never helps, but it’s rarely the only problem.

IAmBroom 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What you say is 100% true for some. I saw a poor family run a fundraiser for themselves; they spent $300 on a donation party that brought in < $50 (and was unadvertised except amongst friends). Truly dumb implementation, by not-dumb people.

It is 100% not true for others. My neighbors know every damn trick in the book for welfare; it's a part of their budget. More money removes serious obstacles in their days.

frsantos 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I’m older and the problem I’ve had is that if you stop giving regularly, you probably will continue not to give. So, articles like this with the best intent just lead to people giving less and not volunteering or providing any other help. If you think giving money doesn’t help, then try a massive reduction in giving and see how that helps. Programs get cut, people get desperate and more mentally unbalanced, start doing drugs, start selling drugs, and they start killing people.

shadowtree 2 days ago | parent [-]

So its protection money. Give money to the poor so they don't kill you.

Awesome.

bloak 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, in a way, but I think the person you replied to said it better!

spaceguillotine 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Nah you gotta work for the rich or they WILL kill you by denying health care, shelter, and food.

simonask 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

There’s a Just World Fallacy if I ever saw one.

immibis 2 days ago | parent [-]

It's also literally true. Violent revolutions in history come about when the people are fed up with the king and also have the means to do one.

It's also true the other way: you have to pay rent (poor pays rich) or else their thugs come and beat you up.

Pretty much everyone wants your money or they'll do what you can to make your life worse. You'll also do what you can to make other people's life worse if they don't give you enough money, like not working for them.

alfiedotwtf 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

From that perspective, are you advocating society should abandon people who cannot help themselves? To me, that’s the point!

IAmBroom 2 days ago | parent [-]

Presumably: "that's the point [of a society]".

Correct me if wrong.

alfiedotwtf a day ago | parent [-]

Totally on point.

I’m as free-market-laissez-faire as they come, but without guard rails, taking it to its logical conclusion then there should only be a single person in the world holding all the money!!