There’s no question we’re in a “GenAI” bubble, the only question is how big of a smoking crater in the ground is going to be created when this thing pops.

The tech isn’t going away, and is cool/useful, but from a business standpoint this whole thing looks like a dumpster fire burning next to a gasoline truck. Right now VC FOMO is the only thing stopping all that from blowing up. When that slows down buckle up.

CEOs are just salivating at the prospect of firing most of their staff and replacing them with AIs. And then you have hype men at these AI companies blowing a burning coal mine of smoke up their asses. And every month the products become even more expensive for even more incremental gains. The hype is unsustainable.

How many "we will have AGI by X/X/201X" predictions have we blown past already?

The VCs are the small players in this bubble now. Big traditional finance is helping Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon build out their datacenters, and the infrastructure to power them. VCs have a lot of money compared to your startup, but they can’t finance a trillion dollars in construction projects.

They’re all so highly levered up that they can’t afford for the bubble to pop. If this goes on for another couple of years before the pop, we may see “too big to fail” wheeled out to justify a bailout of Google or Microsoft.

It's a bubble if the tech or audience wasn't there and capabilities weren't improving weekly.

There's definitely people who don't understand the tech talking about applying it increasing the failure rate of software projects.

> Right now VC FOMO is the only thing stopping all that from blowing up

That was probably 2-3 years ago.

I'd be surprised if VCs hadn't already figured out they're in a bubble. They're probably playing a game of chicken to see who will remain to capture the actually profitable use cases.

There's also a number of lawsuits going on against AI companies regarding piracy and copyright. It's already an established fact in the courts that these companies have downloaded ebooks, music, videos, and images illegally to train their models.

I like your phrases "a smoking crater in the ground" and "a dumpster fire burning next to a gasoline truck" enough to steal them for use in my own critiques.

It'll certainly be lonely on HN without pages of AI articles to read daily..

/s