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jandrese 3 days ago

CEOs are just salivating at the prospect of firing most of their staff and replacing them with AIs. And then you have hype men at these AI companies blowing a burning coal mine of smoke up their asses. And every month the products become even more expensive for even more incremental gains. The hype is unsustainable.

How many "we will have AGI by X/X/201X" predictions have we blown past already?

arcanemachiner 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> How many "we will have AGI by X/X/201X" predictions have we blown past already?

Just imagine how many predictions we'll have in six months, or even a year from now!

ed_elliott_asc 3 days ago | parent [-]

We don’t need to imagine, we can ask ChatGPT

Terr_ 3 days ago | parent [-]

Yeah, everyone knows LLMs excel at providing mathematically-sound answers to novel questions. :p

sebastiennight 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> How many "we will have AGI by X/X/201X" predictions have we blown past already?

This seems wildly inaccurate.

Can you find any single such claim from any credible source? Anybody hyping up an AGI timeframe within the 2010s?

jandrese 2 days ago | parent [-]

Ok, this one is for the end of 2025 so we could still achieve it, and this is from a guy with an AI company (xAI):

https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-predicts-ai-w...

Another AI company CEO prediction:

https://time.com/7205596/sam-altman-superintelligence-agi/

sebastiennight a day ago | parent [-]

I think you're proving my point here. Nobody credible was promising AGI would be arriving in the 2010s.

2025 is halfway through the 2020's.