Fleshy meat sacks on a space rock eating one another alive and shitting them out on a march towards inevitable doom in the form of a (likely) painful and terrifying death is a genius design, no?

> So let's say we continue along this trajectory and we finally have a model that can faithfully reproduce and identify every word sequence in its training data and its training data includes every word ever written up to that point. Where do we go from here?

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the entire point of predictive models (and also of how LLMs are trained and tested).

For one thing, ability to faithfully reproduce texts is not the primary scoring metric being used for the bulk of LLM training and hasn't been for years.

But more importantly, you don't make a weather model so that it can inform you of last Tuesday's weather given information from last Monday, you use it to tell you tomorrow's weather given information from today. The totality of today's temperatures, winds, moistures, and shapes of broader climatic patterns, particulates, albedos, etc etc etc have never happened before, and yet the model tells us something true about the never-before-seen consequences of these never-before-seen conditions, because it has learned the ability to reason new conclusions from new data.

Are today's "AI" models a glorified autocomplete? Yeah, but that's what all intelligence is. The next word I type is the result of an autoregressive process occurring in my brain that produces that next choice based on the totality of previous choices and experiences, just like the Q-learners that will kick your butt in Starcraft choose the best next click based on their history of previous clicks in the game combined with things they see on the screen, and will have pretty good guesses about which clicks are the best ones even if you're playing as Zerg and they only ever trained against Terran.

A highly accurate autocomplete that is able to predict the behavior and words of a genius, when presented with never before seen evidence, will be able to make novel conclusions in exactly the same way as the human genius themselves would when shown the same new data. Autocomplete IS intelligence.

New ideas don't happen because intelligences draw them out of the aether, they happen because intelligences produce new outputs in response to stimuli, and those stimuli can be self-inputs, that's what "thinking" is.

If you still think that all today's AI hubbub is just vacuous hype around an overblown autocomplete, try going to Chatgpt right now. Click the "deep research" button, and ask it "what is the average height of the buildings in [your home neighborhood]"?, or "how many calories are in [a recipe that you just invented]", or some other inane question that nobody would have ever cared to write about ever before but is hypothetically answerable from information on the internet, and see if what you get is "just a reproduced word sequence from the training data".

> We have multi-paragraph autocomplete that's matching existing texts more and more closely.

OK, I think I see where you're coming from. It sounds like what you're saying is:

E. LLMs only do multi-paragraph autocomplete; they are and always will be incapable of actual thinking.

F. Any approach capable of achieving AGI will be completely different in structure. Who knows if or when this alternate approach will even be developed; and if it is developed, we'll be starting from scratch, so we'll have plenty of time to worry about progress then.

With E, again, it may or may not be true. It's worth noting that this is a theoretical argument, not an empirical one; but I think it's a reasonable assumption to start with.

However, there are actually theoretical reasons to think that E may be false. The best way to predict the weather is to have an internal model which approximates weather systems; the best way to predict the outcome of a physics problem is to have an internal model which approximates the physics of the thing you're trying to predict. And the best way to predict what a human would write next is to have a model of a human mind -- including a model of what the human mind has in its model (e.g., the state of the world).

There is some empirical data to support this argument, albeit in a very simplified manner: They trained a simple LLM to predict valid moves for Othello, and then probed it and discovered an internal Othello board being simulated inside the neural network:

https://thegradient.pub/othello/

And my own experience with LLMs better match the "LLMs have an internal model of the world" theory than the "LLMs are simply spewing out statistical garbage" theory.

So, with regard to E: Again, sure, LLMs may turn out to be a dead end. But I'd personally give the idea that LLMs are a complete dead end a less than 50% probability; and I don't think giving it an overwhelmingly high probability (like 1 in a million of being false) is really reasonable, given the theoretical arguments and empirical evidence against it.

With regard to F, again, I don't think this is true. We've learned so much about optimizing and distilling neural nets, optimizing training, and so on -- not to mention all the compute power we've built up. Even if LLMs are a dead end, whenever we do find an architecture capable of achieving AGI, I think a huge amount of the work we've put into optimizing LLMs will put is way ahead in optimizing this other system.

> ...that the current advances in AI will lead to some science fiction future.

I mean, if you'd told me 5 years ago that I'd be able to ask a computer, "Please use this Golang API framework package to implement CRUD operations for this particular resource my system has", and that the resulting code would 1) compile out of the box, 2) exhibit an understanding of that resource and how it relates to other resources in the system based on having seen the code implementing those resources 3) make educated guesses (sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always reasonable) about details I hadn't specified, I don't think I would have believed you.

Even if LLM progress is logarithmic, we're already living in a science fiction future.

EDIT: The scenario actually has very good technical "asides"; if you want to see their view of how a (potentially dangerous) personality emerges from "multi-paragraph auto-complete", look at the drop-down labelled "Alignment over time", and specifically what follows "Here’s a detailed description of how alignment progresses over time in our scenario:".

https://ai-2027.com/#alignment-over-time

I think you're discrediting yourself by talking about dark places and opening your parentheses with anti-depressants.

Not all brains function like they're supposed to, people getting help they need shouldn't be stigmatized.

You also make no argument about your take on things being the right one, you just oppose their worldview to yours and call theirs wrong like you know it is rather than just you thinking yours is right.

What if people are manipulated by bot farms and think tanks and talking points supported by those corporations?

I think this view of humans - that they look at all the available information and then make calm decisions in their own interests - is simply wrong. We are manipulated all the damn time. I struggle to go to the supermarket without buying excess sugar. The biggest corporations in the world grew fat off showing us products to impulse buy before our more rational brain functions could stop us. We are not a little pilot in a meat vessel.

The oil companies also knew and lied about global warming for decades. They paid and continue to pay for as science to stall action. I am completely mystified how you can find them blameless for venal politicians and a populace that largely believes their lies.

I agree with everything here, we've had a great run of economic expansion for basically two centuries and I like my hot showers as much as anyone - but that doesn't change the CO2 levels.

There are politicians in multiple states trying to pass laws that slow down the deployment of renewable energy because they’re afraid if they don’t intervene it will be deployed too quickly and harm fossil fuel interests. Trump is promising to bring back coal, while he bans new wind leases. The whole “oil is the only way aw shucks people chose it” shtick is like a time capsule from 1990. That whole package of beliefs served its purpose and has been replaced with a muscular state-sponsored plan to defend fossil fuel interests even as they become economically obsolete and the rest of the world moves on.

> I'm pretty sure the election was manipulated, but the court only said so because it benefits the incumbents, which control the courts and would lose their power.

Why do you think that's the only reason the court said so? The election law was pretty blatantly violated (he declared campaign funding of 0, yet tons of ads were bought for him and influencers paid to advertise him).

Lol, I've always loved that about physics. Some boltzmann brain type stuff.

here's an example.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1901133641746706581

I finally watched Ne Zha 2 last night with my daughters.

It absolutely lives up to the hype: undoubtedly the best animated movie I've ever seen (and I see a lot, the fate of being the father of 2 young daughters ).

But what I found most fascinating was the subtle yet unmistakable geopolitical symbolism in the movie.

Warning if you haven't yet watched the movie: spoilers!

So the story is about Ne Zha and Ao Bing, whose physical bodies were destroyed by heavenly lightning. To restore both their forms, they must journey to the Chan sect—headed by Immortal Wuliang—and pass three trials to earn an elixir that can regenerate their bodies.

The Chan sect is portrayed in an interesting way: a beacon of virtue that all strive to join. The imagery unmistakably refers to the US: their headquarters is an imposingly large white structure (and Ne Zha, while visiting it, hammers the point: "how white, how white, how white") that bears a striking resemblance to the Pentagon in its layout. Upon gaining membership to the Chan sect, you receive a jade green card emblazoned with an eagle that bears an uncanny resemblance to the US bald eagle symbol. And perhaps most telling is their prized weapon, a massive cauldron marked with the dollar sign...

Throughout the movie you gradually realize, in a very subtle way, that this paragon of virtue is, in fact, the true villain of the story. The Chan sect orchestrates a devastating attack on Chentang Pass—Ne Zha's hometown—while cunningly framing the Dragon King of the East Sea for the destruction. This manipulation serves their divide-and-conquer strategy, allowing them to position themselves as saviors while furthering their own power.

One of the most pointed moments comes when the Dragon King of the East Sea observes that the Chan sect "claims to be a lighthouse of the world but harms all living beings."

Beyond these explicit symbols, I was struck by how the film portrays the relationships between different groups. The dragons, demons, and humans initially view each other with suspicion, manipulated by the Chan sect's narrative. It's only when they recognize their common oppressor that they unite in resistance and ultimately win. The Chan sect's strategy of fostering division while presenting itself as the arbiter of morality is perhaps the key message of the movie: how power can be maintained through control of the narrative.

And as the story unfolds, Wuliang's true ambition becomes clear: complete hegemony. The Chan sect doesn't merely seek to rule—it aims to establish a system where all others exist only to serve its interests, where the dragons and demons are either subjugated or transformed into immortality pills in their massive cauldron. These pills are then strategically distributed to the Chan sect's closest allies (likely a pointed reference to the G7).

What makes Ne Zha 2 absolutely exceptional though is that these geopolitical allegories never overshadow the emotional core of the story, nor its other dimensions (for instance it's at times genuinely hilariously funny). This is a rare film that makes zero compromise, it's both a captivating and hilarious adventure for children and a nuanced geopolitical allegory for adults.

And the fact that a Chinese film with such unmistakable anti-American symbolism has become the highest-grossing animated film of all time globally is itself a significant geopolitical milestone. Ne Zha 2 isn't just breaking box office records—it's potentially rewriting the rules about what messages can dominate global entertainment.