Remix.run Logo
▲ A short explainer on how El Niño works [video](youtube.com)
114 points by nharada 4 hours ago | 24 comments
▲breakyerself 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Any time this stuff comes up it's important to understand that this el Nino is occuring in the context of a global climate that is warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. The risks inherent to weather and climate are growing all the time.

▲Loquebantur 40 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

The important part to understand here is the childish reaction by major parts of the US populace to the outsize responsibility their country has for the catastrophic development of the global climate.

Instead of acknowledging the scientific facts and the ethical implications thereof, they engage in "catch me if you can"-tactics.

They let themselves be willfully utilized as a shield of ignorance against the financial restitution they owe. Not to speak of the implied loss of influence in the world economy after fossil fuels are phased out.

▲bko 8 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

US has reduced their global carbon emissions over the last 20 years. We were a peak of 55% of global emissions to less than 13% today, and continue to drop (we were 23% in 2000).

Even when adjusting for trade, it is down considerably over the last 20 years. Mainly due to dematerialization, basically a free market economy doing more with less (e.g. efficient packaging uses less materials and is cheaper).

US and the Western world can continue reducing carbon emissions and it won't make a bit of difference.

Try spending 5 minutes on google before you spout uniformed opinions

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/co2/united-states

https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2

▲cmrdporcupine 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's gotten bad all over the western world. Here in Canada, just mentioning climate change and policies to restrict CO2 emissions puts you in the political doghouse and gets you crucified on social media. It's just apparently not a concern now. Carney has eviscerated all regulation, and enabling exponential growth of the oil export sector is now a national emergency justified by tariffs, nationalism, national unity etc. etc.

Sorry, great grand-children. Pipelines gotta pump.

▲echelon 20 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Catch-22:

Telling them this will make them vote even stronger in the other way. Especially if you call them stupid, selfish, etc.

You have to show them how it impacts eg. the cost of insurance for coastal properties. But even so, this is hard to convey. The people voting aren't feeling it and are told by coastal elites what to care about - changing their opinion in the opposite direction.

Some countries are even going to benefit tremendously from warming, eg. Russia gets more arable land and access to the North Sea, which is fantastic for trade, energy, and defense.

▲9rx an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

> The risks inherent to weather and climate are growing all the time.

Risk is subjective, so this doesn't mean much without quantifying what you feel is risky to you. Moreover, of all the risks we have heard expressed in the population, there is no unary growth value. There is a change in distribution, and some risks have grown, but some risks have also shrunk. If you are relying on the reader to bring their own idea of what the risks are, this is almost certainly going to be false.

I expect you say this with good intentions, trying to instil fear in the reader to convince them that climate change is something to pay attention to. But this kind of "absolute truth" that doesn't hold up to scrutiny is what actually turns people off paying attention to something that justifiably does warrant attention. Let's do better.

▲tingletech an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I thought risk was defined as probability times cost (or at least that is what you are trying to minimize in risk management) -- so if the probability of costs goes up, would not also risk? You don't have to enumerate each specific risk to believe that risks are growing.

▲9rx an hour ago | parent [-]

I'd say more commonly we say consequence, but I think you can fairly use cost and consequence interchangeably here. They have similar meaning. However, consequence/cost too are subjective. Thus risk is also subjective. Something cannot be objective if its variables are subjective.

▲infinite_spin 16 minutes ago | parent [-]

Costs are tangible, making them objective, even if they have underlying subjectivities. The cost of milk is objective, even if your purchasing habits are subjective.

▲9rx 5 minutes ago | parent [-]

You are correct that "cost" has more than one definition, but, as already discussed, the one we are talking about equates to consequence, not an amount of money. Your milk analogy doesn't fit. Whether or not a so-called consequence is seen as a consequence is in the eye of the beholder.

▲breakyerself 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There is significantly more moisture in the atmosphere now meaning the storms that el nino brings will have a greater capacity to cause flooding. The water the piles up on the west coast of north America will be in addition to the sea level rise that already occurred. Making coastal flooding worse. A drier winter in the Pacific northwest means less snowpack and therefore less water available in the summer with global warming this is exacerbated by the loss of mountain glaciers which help balance seasonal variability. Heating the western Pacific means el nino has always been bad for fisheries there, but layering it on top of global warming can increasingly devastate fish populations there.

Our infrastructure and agriculture are designed around a climate regime that is increasingly becoming a thing of the past. I think your attitude about this shit is nonsensical

▲esalman an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Risk is subjective" until damages occur to someone and it's time to file an insurance claim.

▲9rx an hour ago | parent | next [-]

If there is something you don't believe is a risk, who are going to file a claim with? Normally insurers expect you to arrange insurance beforehand, which requires identifying something you believe is a risk.

▲nsoam 37 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, that’s the exact definition of subjective

▲Sharlin an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

"Yeah, tens of millions died and hundreds of millions were displaced, but in the meantime we made a lot of value for the shareholders so it wasn't all bad."

▲rene_d 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I find the Climate Reanalyzer graphs very instructive - at a glance one can see how extreme the situation is:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

▲simpsond an hour ago | parent [-]

The anomaly map mode especially. Thanks for sharing. I made a toy site recently out of interest: https://elnino.observer

▲guilhermeasper 12 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This video mainly covers how it works in the United States, here's one for Brazilian people in the HN, from Manual do Mundo

https://youtu.be/tWhcTTC-pyw

▲romanovcode 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Title: A short explainer on how El Niño works in US [video] (youtube.com)

▲darkwater 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Yeah. I opened it, saw that the map was centered on NA, and I closed it. I was hoping a primer on how El Niño works globally, given the title.

▲heikkilevanto an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, this was very US centric

▲jeffbee 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Actual title is "El Niño Winter 2026–27: What Pilots Should Expect"

▲slicktux an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Not that the cause is known yet but I’d been curious how this El Niño would affect flying after that terrible Florida Leer Jet crash. Great video!

▲vibebingo an hour ago | parent [-]

I would be curious too. That said each pilot must avoid dangerous weather. There is a recent captain steeeve video where the pilot does that. ATC won't vector them around the storm (not sure why...) so they declare an emergency then they are free to fly as needed to avoid it.