We have to figure out where this comes from! It's so recent: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49828285 references https://x.com/_NathanCalvin/status/2084856543561093535 - that's the earliest I've seen so far. Others?

Edit: thanks ChatGPT: https://barrypopik.com/blog/there_is_never_one_cockroach_bus...

Proverb #232 of https://www.asau.ru/files/pdf/2759983.pdf says it's attested from 1991:

232 There is never just one cockroach. (1991)

Variant: There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen

Ants are nicer though.

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mandevil a day ago | parent | next [-]

Warren Buffet said the cockroach variant in his 1989 investor letter.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1989.html

"In a difficult business, no sooner is one problem solved than another surfaces - never is there just one cockroach in the kitchen."

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close04 a day ago | parent | next [-]

My grandmother was using a similar saying long before that, translated approximately: "there's never just 1 mouse in the barn". I'd bet these expressions have been common across the world for centuries (maybe substitute for local rodent).

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mito88 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Inside every large problem is a small problem struggling to get out."

	▲	01HNNWZ0MV43FF 21 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Horsehair worms. Ugh.

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jordanb a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Warren buffet didn't invent it either it's an old saying. I vaguely recall it from an insecticide commercial when I was a child but they probably didn't invent it either.

Not surprising its use has exploded in recent days..

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gnabgib a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Possibly Nathan Calvin on Twitter in August: If you find two ants in your kitchen, the best estimate of the total number of ants in your kitchen is not two

August 5th about Open AI:

https://x.com/_NathanCalvin/status/2084856543561093535

September 4th.. still about Open AI:

https://x.com/_NathanCalvin/status/2095854095139537064

November 11th.. Alex Lawsen on Twitter, referencing Nathan's post (above):

https://x.com/lxrjl/status/2120640689620861335

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morganf a day ago | parent | next [-]

It's much much older. As a kid growing up in NY in the 90s, I heard many times the version of this saying, "one cockroach on the floor means one hundred behind the wall."

	▲	mkehrt a day ago \| parent \| next [-]
		That's different, though. The point of the ant thing is sometimes things just happen, but if they happen twice, that's a very different matter.
	▲	mk12 19 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		These sayings also causes needless panic over non-infesting cockroaches like ectobius pallidus that commonly wander inside by accident.

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gibspaulding 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I suspect you are right for the current flush. I know I heard it via Zvi's SubStack, but that was probably in a quote of Nathan Calvin.

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Teever a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Completely tangential but I always find it interesting how different expressions become attached to specific contexts in people's heads.

"This old house as got good bones" is the realtor 'slaps roof of car' meme that seems to have caught on during the 2010s and peaked during COVID. Now I hear people mindlessly propagating it whenever they talk about renovating/buying an old home.

I'm sure that we'll be hearing this ants in the kitchen of the house with good bones thing forever now.

	▲	zippyman55 a day ago \| parent [-]
		I heard this in ‘93 when I bought a house. Also: I’m worried about the gophers in the back yard. (Taking my focus off more important concerns)

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iwassayinbourns a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is my favorite HN comment of 2026. Thanks dang.

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mmahemoff a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A 1985 Dallas Morning News article attributes the heuristic to "Sanders", as cited in a 2003 mailing list (https://listserv.linguistlist.org/pipermail/ads-l/2003-Septe...).

Fable 5.2 couldn't access the full DMN text (nor can I), but suggests the article is about "local TV journalists reacting to a report on minority hiring" and "Sanders" is probably a reporter named Bob Ray Sanders, a reporter in the region (who was later inducted to the National Association of Black Journalists' Hall of Fame). What he actually said is sadly paywalled in the archives.

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DANmode 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Vaguely-related intrigue:

The word "myriad" is used on HN ~3-5x more often than places like Reddit, Twitter, since around 2011-2012.

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thaumasiotes a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It makes sense for cockroaches, which make it their business to hide from you.

It's not even true for ants. If you find two ants in the kitchen, they were just there by coincidence. Ants aren't concerned with whether you can see them; if they're interested in something in your kitchen, they'll show up by the hundreds to take it away, and they'll be impossible to miss.

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busymom0 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Aren't these similar to "when it rains, it pours" or "adding insult to injury" or "Troubles don't come alone, they like to arrive in groups"?

https://www.reddit.com/r/QuotesPorn/comments/9uu7wp/troubles...

	▲	throwaway198846 a day ago \| parent [-]
		They are more similar to "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action" because they include explicit low numeric information

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lovich a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Viral memetics didn’t disappear just because we got bots pushing narratives.