It's more accurate to say that there's an OpenAI-Anthropic-X bubble. Financially sustainable investment in LLMs is useful and not going anywhere, as China shows. Dumping trillions of dollars into companies that make models that are 1.2x better than Chinese models at 100~1000x the cost, ehhh... good luck with that.

Im in China, and scared. Everyone is broke, losing their jobs while on the other hand there are these giant datacenter campuses being build in the warmest and most remote places. if the bubble bursts (there is 1000% a bubble, its the same like mass maker and innovation, sharing bikes and now ai policies)… it will be bigger than any financial crisis before. The only shit I see coming out of ai hackathons and competitions here is ai tools for marketing (ai). The rest is ai slop microdramas.

I think this is correct except that it ignores the hidden bubble in the SPVs: a lot of the firms who look only partially at risk have simply moved debt off their balance sheets- but to whom? Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc.

And “OpenAI bubble” alone has one massive implication: the likely demise of Oracle, a blue chip business that is deeply embedded into the western world.

On the one hand, if the air is let out of the bubble before those SPVs get themselves too deep into building things that won’t be needed, that is good. But nevertheless the failures of the SPVs will harm people who are not in the exclusive billionaire club.

Also there is a considerable money-go-round; the money for everything will dry up fast when the cloud LLM businesses can’t convince people to give them money to buy Nvidia GPUs anymore l