I think this is correct except that it ignores the hidden bubble in the SPVs: a lot of the firms who look only partially at risk have simply moved debt off their balance sheets- but to whom? Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc.

And “OpenAI bubble” alone has one massive implication: the likely demise of Oracle, a blue chip business that is deeply embedded into the western world.

On the one hand, if the air is let out of the bubble before those SPVs get themselves too deep into building things that won’t be needed, that is good. But nevertheless the failures of the SPVs will harm people who are not in the exclusive billionaire club.

Also there is a considerable money-go-round; the money for everything will dry up fast when the cloud LLM businesses can’t convince people to give them money to buy Nvidia GPUs anymore l