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▲ Starship Flight 15 on 11/13 plans to catch both booster and ship(spacex.com)
86 points by spikels 6 hours ago | 37 comments
▲tristanj 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Launching only 26 Starlink v3 satellites is a disappointingly small number. That's about ~52t or half the block 3 advertised payload capacity of 100t. Elon said on the Q3 earnings call that flight 14 carrying 26 V3 Starlinks was only about half loaded, so apparently the ship can launch twice as many.

I'm curious why they don't fully load it, I can speculate:

0) starship is still in testing, they don't want to change too many variables from flight 14 and add 50t of payload.

1) lower payload gives them more options in engine-out situations. On flight 14, both booster and ship had engines fail.

2) derisking for ship failure, each Starlink sat costs ~$1.2m, and losing $30m of satellites hits less hard than $60m if orbital insertion fails.

3) the dispenser installed on ship 42 only fits 26 sats, and increasing this would require a hardware modification and possible delays.

4) Starlink v3 manufacturing is delayed and they don't have enough units, which I find doubtful given Starship is years late and they should have a backlog of v3s waiting to launch.

5) block 3 has worse performance than expected and can't reliably deliver 100t to orbit. Recent comments that raptor 3 can only reliably deliver 230t of thrust instead of 280t support this. I speculate SpaceX is running raptor 3 >230t on booster ascent, which is why we keep seeing engines failing. This should be resolved by block 4 or 5 with raptor 4.

▲sbuttgereit 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it's likely to be 0-2: just de-risking in a program still characterized as testing; or at least I understand it to still be thought of as a test program.

I can absolutely see not wanting to change too many variables while they're working out the full, targeted flight profile. I can also see, with sufficient confidence, that they'd make the line between test/production a bit fuzzy with carrying production payloads rather than mass simulators. Trade-offs... not much else to say.

For Starlink v3, I could absolutely see them delaying production starts until the capability to actually deliver them was closer to reality without regard to backlogs and schedule delays: why tie up capital in satellites sitting in a warehouse? Especially if you're also improving designs, adjusting those designs for new realities/tech/etc. getting ahead of that game would (my gut feeling) have more costs than benefits.

▲tgsovlerkhgsel 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The derisking argument seems unlikely. They're either putting $30M of extra satellites at risk, or guaranteeing the loss of ~$10-15M worth of launch capacity by letting it go unused. If the satellites are that cheap, that would suggest a very low confidence in their rockets that isn't really warranted. (Granted, the value of that launch capacity is probably less once they get Starship actually operational).

▲trothamel 42 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It seems reasonable to me.

Getting the Starship back is of huge value of them, and one of the main things that would stop that would be to lose enough engines that you don't make it to orbit. There's some payload number that lets you make it to orbit with, say, 2 engines failing to start - and beyond that, you just lose control of the vehicle all the time so it doesn't matter.

Assuming the payload is low enough value, it makes sense to fill it up as far as you can without lowering the probability of success unrealistically.

▲JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> the loss of ~$10-15M worth of launch capacity by letting it go unused

What is the production rate of these birds?

If you have a 50/50 chance of success now and a 25% chance a month later, and you can't replace the lost birds in production in that interval, it makes sense to hedge irrespective of production cost.

▲bell-cot 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'll pick 0, 1, 5, and

6) Starlink v3 is itself new and nearly untested. Launching a lot of v3.00 models, then discovering that they really need to be upgraded to v3.01 to fix various hardware issues, is not a win.

▲xoa 3 hours ago | parent [-]

>6) Starlink v3 is itself new and nearly untested. Launching a lot of v3.00 models, then discovering that they really need to be upgraded to v3.01 to fix various hardware issues, is not a win.

Yes, and that could also tie back into #4:

>Starlink v3 manufacturing is delayed and they don't have enough units, which I find doubtful given Starship is years late and they should have a backlog of v3s waiting to launch

This assumes that a delay isn't completely purposeful. Technology and their experience with Starlink has continued to advance over those years of delay, it's not like they simply stopped iterating with Starlink v2, they just couldn't do everything or put all the pieces together in one package due to size/mass. But I'd be unsurprised if they took advantage of those extra years to keep working on it. They've proven they can ramp Starlink production easily, it's not clear they'd have any reason to produce some big backlog and have it sitting in a warehouse. Seems better to tie it closely to Starship's dev cycle so they end up launching current stuff, not sats that have been sitting around and are now years old already. They can ramp v3 Starlink production alongside Starship.

▲testing22321 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Launching only 26 Starlink v3 satellites is a disappointingly small number. That's about ~52t

Which makes it the third heaviest orbital payload in all of history.

Funny thing to be disappointed about.

▲lukeschlather an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I'm excited at the prospect of Starship landing on the moon. 100T payloads are maybe not required to make it happen, but probably are. For those of us who care about Artemis IV happening on schedule, being disappointed in a 52t payload capacity is very straightforward.

I'm not excited about more Starlink satellites.

▲tristanj 32 minutes ago | parent [-]

Starlink payloads are the literally the path to making Starship human spaceflight ready. Starship has to launch dozens to hundreds of times to identify and fix low probability failures. Without frequent Starlink flights testing and debugging the vehicle, it would take far longer to build a safe and reliable Starship.

They're also highly profitable, and fund/subsidize future missions. Recall, Starship development was funded by Starlink.

▲tristanj 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Launching at only half payload capacity is disappointing. Starlink is severely capacity constrained, SpaceX needs to get as many v3 sats as they can into orbit, instead of flying partial loads.

▲testing22321 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They are testing, learning and evolving the program, and they’re doing it in public so we’re lucky enough to get some inside tech details.

It continues to improve. Be patient.

▲tristanj an hour ago | parent [-]

I'm completely aware. But this is the third flight in a row with a half payload. If this trend continues, it's not a good sign for Starship block 3's performance capabilities.

▲randallsquared an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

If Starship succeeds, that will be about half an hour's worth of launch capacity in the early 30s.

▲tristanj 40 minutes ago | parent [-]

I'm fully aware. But Starlink is blocked by today's Starship launch cadence and payload capacity. Pointing out Starship could handle this payload 5 years in the future isn't helpful.

All of Starlink's future ambitions are blocked by today's Starship.

▲7e 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you assume Starship is a clusterfuck, it all makes sense. They will be able to meet their promised payload capacity after maybe the fifth full redesign of their engines.

▲NooneAtAll5 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

dude, it was literally the first orbit launch

be glad it wasn't mass simulators

▲tristanj 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Which is not what I'm discussing here. The second orbital launch will also be 26 satellites.

▲metalman 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

cut and paste of the mission plan with details of the cargo

November 13, 2026 18:45 - 20:00 AT Starship Flight 15 Flight 15 of Starship is preparing to launch as soon as Friday, November 13, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 4:45 p.m. CT.

A live webcast of the flight will begin about 30 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. Coverage is planned to continue through ship catch, with the potential for hours of live views from Starship as it orbits Earth, powered by Starlink. As is the case with all launches, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to check in here and stay tuned to our X account for updates.

The upcoming flight is planned to be the first to return both Starship and Super Heavy to the launch site for catch. If successful, this will mark the first full recovery of an orbital launch system and a breakthrough moment in making Starship a reliable, rapidly reusable rocket.

Starship’s initial return to launch site mission is expected to orbit the Earth at an altitude of ~275 km and complete approximately 14 orbits around the planet over the course of a more than 22-hour flight. Similar to Starship’s first orbital mission, the flight profile has been designed with the opportunity to insert into a passively safe suborbital trajectory or safely deorbit at multiple pre-determined areas over the ocean after raising to an orbital altitude. Read more about the testing, mission design, and safety measures for first planned Starship catch.

Starship’s previous mission was the culmination of more than a dozen flight tests and years of development, sending Starship to orbit and deploying meaningful payloads to space for the first time. Watch “Go For Orbit”, the latest episode in the ongoing Starship series experience the moments behind flying the most ambitious Starship mission yet.

The booster’s primary objective on Flight 15 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and return to the launch site for catch. This will be the first return and catch attempt for a Super Heavy V3 booster. Three V1 boosters were successfully caught on earlier flight tests with two demonstrating successful reflights.

The Starship upper stage’s primary objectives include the deployment of 26 Starlink V3 satellites and the first return to launch site and catch at Starbase. Starship will only execute a return to launch site if the flight control team has ensured that the vehicle systems critical for reentry maneuvers and final landing burn and tower approach are healthy.

Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Terabit of capacity to the constellation, with all 26 satellites equaling ~10 Starlink V2 Mini launches on Falcon 9.

After deploying from Starship, the Starlink V3 satellites will unfold their antennas and deploy their solar arrays and make initial contact with the ground and the rest of the Starlink constellation via radio frequency and laser links. The satellites will then begin raising their orbits with their onboard thrusters. Following their on-orbit checkouts, the satellites should begin serving customers as soon as a few weeks after launch.

Three of the satellites have been modified with a suite of cameras to scan Starship’s heatshield and transmit imagery down to operators. This method of analyzing Starship’s heatshield has been tested on previous flights and is one of several data sources to help inform Starship’s readiness to return to the launch site on Flight 15.

Starship’s heatshield will incorporate the improvements made on Flight 14 including additional retention mechanisms on tiles in areas deemed to be at highest risk of falling off during ascent and addressing areas with a flow path for plasma to get behind the tiles. The vehicle will also have a large portion of the heatshield equipped with a curved tile design that has shown the ability to reduce heating in the gaps between tiles.

Countdown All Times Approximate

00:50:00 SpaceX Flight Director conducts poll and verifies GO for propellant load 00:35:33 Booster LOX (liquid oxygen) load underway 00:35:30 Booster fuel (liquid methane) load underway 00:35:12 Ship LOX load underway 00:35:11 Ship fuel load underway 00:21:40 Raptor begins engine chill on booster and ship 00:02:50 Booster propellant load complete 00:02:10 Ship propellant load complete 00:00:30 SpaceX flight director verifies GO for launch 00:00:17 Flame diverter activation 00:00:03 Booster engine startup command 00:00:00 Excitement guaranteed

FLIGHT TIMELINE All Times Approximate

00:00:00 Liftoff 00:00:58 Max Q (moment of peak aerodynamic stress on the rocket) 00:02:19 Super Heavy MECO (most engines cut off) 00:02:21 Hot-staging (Starship Raptor ignition and stage separation) 00:02:26 Super Heavy boostback burn start 00:03:02 Super Heavy boostback burn shutdown 00:06:10 Super Heavy landing burn start 00:06:35 Super Heavy landing burn shutdown and catch 00:08:09 Starship engine cutoff 00:26:10 Starship orbital insertion burn start 00:26:30 Starship orbital insertion burn shutdown 00:35:01 Payload deploy start 01:17:40 Payload deploy complete 01:27:46 Early Hawaii Return Check 07:15:35 Mid Chile Return Check 20:41:55 Final Hawaii Return Check 21:35:57 Deorbit burn start 21:36:07 Deorbit burn shutdown 22:10:46 Starship entry 22:29:34 Starship is transonic 22:30:13 Starship is subsonic 22:32:16 Landing burn start 22:32:18 Landing flip 22:32:26 Landing burn 3 to 2 engines 22:32:33 Landing burn 2 to 1 engine 22:32:34 Starship landing burn shutdown and catch

▲xixixao 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is much longer (22h) than starship ever spent coasting, right? If it doesn’t make it back I’d expect problems with boil off.

▲ls612 an hour ago | parent [-]

That’s probably part of the point, to get real data on boil off and how they will need to spec their cooling system for the lunar and mars missions.

▲andyjohnson0 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-15

▲omegaSigma95 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Does catching ship require any tower arm changes from the booster catches or is it the same hardware setup?

▲wmf 4 hours ago | parent [-]

The same chopsticks are used for both. You can see this when they load the stack.

▲boredatoms an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is it really so hard to say 13Nov so that its not a bunch of numbers in a strange US-date format

▲themgt 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The reality is Starship works, SpaceX now has an astonishing lead over all of the competition, and they are cancelling Falcon 9 and arguably pulling up the ladder behind them.

The real criticism of SpaceX is they're now on the verge of quasi-monopolizing access to space. But the haters spent the last decade committed to "Starship doesn't work" so even after it does work, every other rocket is delayed and New Glenn vaporized its pad, they can't kick the supercopium and mount a critique of the company based in reality.

▲waterheater 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Their quasi-monopolization of access to space is entirely due to unserious efforts by virtually all non-US governments to build reusable rockets. Yes, space is hard, but I see no technical reason why only SpaceX should be able to achieve such a massive lead. The only explanation is stubbornness: legacy rocketry programs killing innovation to protect their own jobs.

▲YetAnotherNick an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Which non US government are you talking about. China is investing heavily and making at least some progress. EU couldn't get "legacy rocketry programs" working, so the reason is incompetence not stubbornness. India is trying a bit, but they don't have capacity to spend. Russia is also trying.

▲lukeschlather an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I would call Blue Origin setting off the largest launchpad detonation in history a lot of things, but I would not call it unserious.

▲jcfrei 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They are on the verge of quasi monopolizing - soon having lots of competitors I think is more accurate. If I were a SpaceX investor I would be more worried that Elon is once again squandering an early lead by losing focus - like he did with Tesla.

▲AnimalMuppet 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How are they pulling up the ladder behind them?

▲tcdent an hour ago | parent | next [-]

At this point, services delivering payloads to space are scarcer than payloads themsleves. Launch service contracts from them are already essentially unavailable. Running ahead while Blue Origin and Rocket Lab still catch up is a significant strategic advantage.

Hot payloads for the next few years are network connectivity and compute, two verticals SpaceX has chosen to compete in, which are major sources of revenue. Aside from saving room for strategic relationships with the US government, they can easily utilize all available capacity themselves.

▲bell-cot an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

If (1) SpaceX is the only organization actually able to launch at scale (vs. promising eventual launching at scale while burning through $billions), (2) the Big Money in space will be made with large constellations of internet/cellular communications satellites and orbital DC's, and (3) SpaceX is winding down the launch services that it provides to outside customers - then all of SpaceX's competition for the $$$ will be stuck on the ground, giving them a monopoly.

Eventually, anti-trust law and/or another competent launch provider might break that monopoly. But Elon's buddy Don will control the Justice Dept. for a couple more years. And even for the competent, ramping up launch is slow.

▲tcdent an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Anti trust is completely out of the question. There is plenty of competition that is already selling contracts even if the physical product doesn't exist yet.

▲WalterBright an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

So we must break up a monopoly because it delivers more value at a lower cost than its competitors?

▲AnimalMuppet 34 minutes ago | parent [-]

No, bell-cot's point is that they are the same company that gets the profits from the payload. It's vertical integration (pun accidental, but not avoided). That gives them a massive financial advantage as a launch company. It makes it hard for anyone else to compete with them - if they have the capacity to handle all other customers' launches as well as their own.

Internet satellites... that does look like a monopoly, or at least effectively one.

▲LanceJones 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I've followed MSM coverage (and that of many science communicators) since Starhopper tests and can confirm that the majority of reporting has been of the "Starship can't/doesn't/won't work" ilk. The very same groups are now crying about a potential monopoly. EDIT for grammar.