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▲ themgt 6 hours ago

The reality is Starship works, SpaceX now has an astonishing lead over all of the competition, and they are cancelling Falcon 9 and arguably pulling up the ladder behind them.

The real criticism of SpaceX is they're now on the verge of quasi-monopolizing access to space. But the haters spent the last decade committed to "Starship doesn't work" so even after it does work, every other rocket is delayed and New Glenn vaporized its pad, they can't kick the supercopium and mount a critique of the company based in reality.

▲waterheater 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Their quasi-monopolization of access to space is entirely due to unserious efforts by virtually all non-US governments to build reusable rockets. Yes, space is hard, but I see no technical reason why only SpaceX should be able to achieve such a massive lead. The only explanation is stubbornness: legacy rocketry programs killing innovation to protect their own jobs.

▲YetAnotherNick 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Which non US government are you talking about. China is investing heavily and making at least some progress. EU couldn't get "legacy rocketry programs" working, so the reason is incompetence not stubbornness. India is trying a bit, but they don't have capacity to spend. Russia is also trying.

▲lukeschlather 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would call Blue Origin setting off the largest launchpad detonation in history a lot of things, but I would not call it unserious.

▲jcfrei 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They are on the verge of quasi monopolizing - soon having lots of competitors I think is more accurate. If I were a SpaceX investor I would be more worried that Elon is once again squandering an early lead by losing focus - like he did with Tesla.

▲AnimalMuppet 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How are they pulling up the ladder behind them?

▲tcdent 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

At this point, services delivering payloads to space are scarcer than payloads themsleves. Launch service contracts from them are already essentially unavailable. Running ahead while Blue Origin and Rocket Lab still catch up is a significant strategic advantage.

Hot payloads for the next few years are network connectivity and compute, two verticals SpaceX has chosen to compete in, which are major sources of revenue. Aside from saving room for strategic relationships with the US government, they can easily utilize all available capacity themselves.

▲bell-cot 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If (1) SpaceX is the only organization actually able to launch at scale (vs. promising eventual launching at scale while burning through $billions), (2) the Big Money in space will be made with large constellations of internet/cellular communications satellites and orbital DC's, and (3) SpaceX is winding down the launch services that it provides to outside customers - then all of SpaceX's competition for the $$$ will be stuck on the ground, giving them a monopoly.

Eventually, anti-trust law and/or another competent launch provider might break that monopoly. But Elon's buddy Don will control the Justice Dept. for a couple more years. And even for the competent, ramping up launch is slow.

▲WalterBright an hour ago | parent | next [-]

There's nothing stopping other rocket companies from doing the same thing Musk is.

▲tcdent 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Anti trust is completely out of the question. There is plenty of competition that is already selling contracts even if the physical product doesn't exist yet.

▲WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So we must break up a monopoly because it delivers more value at a lower cost than its competitors?

▲AnimalMuppet 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

No, bell-cot's point is that they are the same company that gets the profits from the payload. It's vertical integration (pun accidental, but not avoided). That gives them a massive financial advantage as a launch company. It makes it hard for anyone else to compete with them - if they have the capacity to handle all other customers' launches as well as their own.

Internet satellites... that does look like a monopoly, or at least effectively one.

▲WalterBright an hour ago | parent [-]

Companies spin off parts of their process into separate companies all the time. Auto and airframe companies are notable examples. If it was more profitable to do these in house, they would.

▲sroussey an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

No, but the government could nationalize it and spin it out again.

▲WalterBright an hour ago | parent [-]

We already have NASA.

▲LanceJones 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I've followed MSM coverage (and that of many science communicators) since Starhopper tests and can confirm that the majority of reporting has been of the "Starship can't/doesn't/won't work" ilk. The very same groups are now crying about a potential monopoly. EDIT for grammar.

▲skew-aberration an hour ago | parent [-]

The main negative coverage I've heard is actually that starship is clearly optimized for the commercial LEO market while it has received to date $3B (of $5B) of government funds intended for space exploration as part of a contract it may never deliver on (at least, as it was originally envisaged), delaying Artemis by years and costing the government at least a further $5B in funding of gateway projects which will also be delayed and require expensive re-engineering if/when they are ever deployed.

This could be seen as either straightforward corruption or a gamble on the Starship platform for future Mars exploration.

There are very sound economic reasons why rockets for Moon exploration like Saturn-V were built the way they were. Saturn-V was around $35-40B in today's money for 13 rockets and 6 landings (excluding lander, crew costs). It took 5.5 years from greenlight to first successful orbital flight (which was also its first flight). Starship will likely meet this target of 6 landings after about 20 years of development, $25B R&D (excluding crew/lander contracts), and possibly about $5B in launch costs. Asymptotic costs will of course be much lower, but launch costs do not dominate space exploration costs. The platform might be capable of Mars missions one day - but it's not clear how far out that goal is.