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▲ onlyrealcuzzo 3 hours ago

The bigger story is that their burn rate is so high.

Unless things change considerably, this is less than a 6 month runway.

It's not common for raises to give you this little runway.

You could read into it that they expect to IPO in far less than that amount of time, and this is a short bridge until then.

▲metalspot an hour ago | parent | next [-]

This would by my question. Why do they need money at all after just raising 9 months ago?

But none of these numbers are real. Softbank and MGX are re-arranging the deck chairs between OpenAI and Stargate so the actual new outside money here indicates very weak demand.

This is a press release to try to anchor the valuation but it doesn't seem like a lot of people are buying that.

▲nostrademons 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I do expect them to IPO in ~6 months - they were planning to IPO in 2026Q4 but they torpedoed those plans, and Sam Altman said it's off the table for the rest of 2026. The implication is that it's on the table for 2027Q1.

Interest rates are the big wildcard. If this is the start of a significant rising cycle, akin to 2022/2023, then the AI bubble is toast and all these companies are dead. If the Fed pauses in December/January there may be a window of opportunity in early 2027 and we'll see both OpenAI and Anthropic IPO and possibly jump.

Rising interest rates are a triple whammy to AI companies: 1) risk capital always flees first when rates go up, so the available capital dries up 2) they and their suppliers have borrowed significantly to fund datacenter expansion, so rising rates will directly increase their expenses and 3) AI is considered an investment for their customers, and corporate finance always pulls back on more speculative investments when rates go up, and so their customers will likely pull back and directly shrink their revenue.

▲enraged_camel an hour ago | parent [-]

>> I do expect them to IPO in ~6 months - they were planning to IPO in 2026Q4 but they torpedoed those plans, and Sam Altman said it's off the table for the rest of 2026. The implication is that it's on the table for 2027Q1.

Whether they IPO depends on a lot of factors. For example, if we see a market meltdown triggered by data center moratoriums, then neither lab will IPO in 2027 at the very least. And if Anthropic achieves RSI first, there won't be much investor interest in a clearly inferior lab.

▲metalspot an hour ago | parent [-]

RSI has already been achieved, but it is not the infinite wealth, eternal life, ending all disease fantasies, and there is no monopoly, just more intense competition as everyone is capable of replicating it, so bad news for that investment thesis.

▲outside1234 14 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

But if it was a real, functioning business, that you'd expect in an IPO, then they wouldn't need a raise to bridge there?