I do expect them to IPO in ~6 months - they were planning to IPO in 2026Q4 but they torpedoed those plans, and Sam Altman said it's off the table for the rest of 2026. The implication is that it's on the table for 2027Q1.

Interest rates are the big wildcard. If this is the start of a significant rising cycle, akin to 2022/2023, then the AI bubble is toast and all these companies are dead. If the Fed pauses in December/January there may be a window of opportunity in early 2027 and we'll see both OpenAI and Anthropic IPO and possibly jump.

Rising interest rates are a triple whammy to AI companies: 1) risk capital always flees first when rates go up, so the available capital dries up 2) they and their suppliers have borrowed significantly to fund datacenter expansion, so rising rates will directly increase their expenses and 3) AI is considered an investment for their customers, and corporate finance always pulls back on more speculative investments when rates go up, and so their customers will likely pull back and directly shrink their revenue.

>> I do expect them to IPO in ~6 months - they were planning to IPO in 2026Q4 but they torpedoed those plans, and Sam Altman said it's off the table for the rest of 2026. The implication is that it's on the table for 2027Q1.

Whether they IPO depends on a lot of factors. For example, if we see a market meltdown triggered by data center moratoriums, then neither lab will IPO in 2027 at the very least. And if Anthropic achieves RSI first, there won't be much investor interest in a clearly inferior lab.