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▲ Jackobrien a day ago

The best open models today have been “good enough” to do most knowledge work for a few months. This might be the first US one good enough too. That’s a big deal.

Open weight US based Opus 5.5 within 12 months.

▲kadoban a day ago | parent | next [-]

> Open weight US based Opus 5.5 within 12 months.

Seems unlikely. Maybe open weight at all near there? That'd be great.

▲wolttam a day ago | parent | next [-]

People say this about the frontier every time, and the open models catch up in a matter of months every time.

▲kadoban a day ago | parent [-]

The open models catch up, the _US_ open models catch up much more slowly. Different incentives and cultures.

▲p-e-w a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

▲satvikpendem a day ago | parent | next [-]

US open weights are much worse, way more than 12 months apart compared to frontier.

▲ a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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▲kadoban a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

Frontier and open weights? Yes.

Frontier and _US_ open weights? No.

I'd expect a US open weights provider to suddenly get bought or go non-open if they get near Opus 5.5 anyway.

▲nghiemphucminh7 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

▲npc99 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Inception Mercury 3 and Particle-1's model are also good.

(I am assuming Inception is an American company, not sure TBH)

▲ray__ a day ago | parent | next [-]

Agree, Mercury 3 is one of my favorite models right now...the speed is such a quality of life improvement.

▲Bluestein 20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

May I add Poolside (Laguna S) to this? Used them extensively during their free trial (sadly now apparently over).-

▲johnshahbazian a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For my own purposes, I found Mercury Decide to be excellent. Better than Jev at what I threw at it. Inception did a really great job with it.

▲flipbrad a day ago | parent [-]

Thanks for your review, 15 day old HN account that likes praising Mercury services.

▲johnshahbazian 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm not affiliated with them at all. yeah I like them, and yeah I like to compare decision models at the moment.

Don't believe me? Google my name.

▲ 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
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▲martincsweiss a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Really? I'm surprised. What do you use it for?

My read on Diffusion LLMs has been that it's cool tech, but only useful for things like like code autocomplete or editing a block of text.

They don't beat autoregressive models on quality per compute, assuming you are serving lots of users and can batch requests.

▲npc99 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I just use it for normal coding stuff.

It's not as good as the current frontier, to be fair. I don't use it to help me think through architecture, for example. But I have found to work well for at least like half of coding tasks once architecture and patterns are in place. Its advantage is that it's very very fast.

▲serf a day ago | parent | prev [-]

MoA schemes that use proposers/task-separation/supervisory roles can still benefit from very fast diffusion models like mercury, the overall speed doesn't have to be bottle-necked by the slowest model -- that depends on the arrangement it's deployed in.

but to your point , yeah diffusion models can be kind of brain dead without proper coaxing.

my ideal arrangement is a smarter/bigger model supervising lots of proposals from diffusion models. The diffusion models spit out a big proposal each, the bigger model can vet something as minor as the headline or filename for each proposal, time still ends up being saved.

▲freakynit a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Sorry to put it bluntly, but, Mercury is sh*t in comparison. And I have genuinely tried a few times to use it since the speed is so good. But nop.. it just isn't there.

▲josh-wrale a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Muse Glimmer is pretty good.

▲BOOSTERHIDROGEN a day ago | parent [-]

Could you give some examples what makes them good, thanks

▲agentdev001 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I give it 2.

▲walrus01 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Things have been remarkably "not terrible" since approximately the release of Laguna S 2.1 a while back in early summer 2026, which is now outdated within the past 6 month time frame by other, better non CN open weight models.

I'm not saying that any of them are to the level as a deepseek v4.1 flash 1017 or similar but they're catching up. The most recent huge mistral release is also grounds for an optimistic view.

▲gigatexal a day ago | parent | prev [-]

That’d be the inflection point I’m waiting for!