> Open weight US based Opus 5.5 within 12 months.

Seems unlikely. Maybe open weight at all near there? That'd be great.

wolttam 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

People say this about the frontier every time, and the open models catch up in a matter of months every time.

	▲	kadoban 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		The open models catch up, the _US_ open models catch up much more slowly. Different incentives and cultures.

p-e-w 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

	▲	satvikpendem 2 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		US open weights are much worse, way more than 12 months apart compared to frontier.
	▲	2 days ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
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	▲	kadoban 2 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now. Frontier and open weights? Yes. Frontier and _US_ open weights? No. I'd expect a US open weights provider to suddenly get bought or go non-open if they get near Opus 5.5 anyway.

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