That’s not what prediction markets give you though. They give you capital-adjusted, human perception-based odds of future events. You aren’t “seeing the probably of future events”.

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jawiggins an hour ago | parent [-]

> An event predicted to happen p% of the time happens about p% of the time. Can’t beat that.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/pr...

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dozerly 42 minutes ago | parent [-]

You can link me studies that are paid and bought for by these companies all day long. Find me one where the guy is not a consultant to the companies themselves.

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jawiggins 39 minutes ago | parent [-]

Huh, I hadn't considered that. Have you seen research from other sources that demonstrate they are not accurate?

	▲	dozerly 27 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		This is the only one I’m personally aware of, keying off of a commonly known bias humans suffer from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12878 Obviously not compelling on its own though.