> An event predicted to happen p% of the time happens about p% of the time. Can’t beat that.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/pr...

You can link me studies that are paid and bought for by these companies all day long. Find me one where the guy is not a consultant to the companies themselves.

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jawiggins 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Huh, I hadn't considered that. Have you seen research from other sources that demonstrate they are not accurate?

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dozerly 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This is the only one I’m personally aware of, keying off of a commonly known bias humans suffer from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12878

Obviously not compelling on its own though.

	▲	jawiggins an hour ago \| parent [-]
		> longshots lose 6.3 cents per dollar when each contract is weighted equally but gain 4.1 cents when related contracts are first grouped by parent event; the two-sided pattern is robust in Crypto and Politics but surprisingly absent in Sports. This seems like a relatively small inefficiency in the markets, no? If the margin of error notable in a prediction markets is <10 cents per dollar, that implies that they are pricing events pretty accurately. Especially post publication of this paper, when sophisticated traders could trade away this inefficiency.