I've seen those and they are crazy! Many elections are decided by the primary anyway, and then of course exit polls are going to be basically accurate 2 hours before the election. It's not even that fine print, I think they may actually just be stupid.

this is an answerable question and these markets are generally well calibrated (including on election outcomes), they have a good brier score.

i would not premise an anti-prediction market argument on their accuracy being bad, you are building on shaky foundations. the better argument is the paternalist protecting stupid people from themselves imo.

> They're pure corruption engines designed for insider betting. The top brass of these companies need to be made example of.

is there any surprise then that Trumps are on the boards of both?

I thought it worth posting the stance for those not willing to click

... Gambling is motivated by a desire to get something for nothing. This desire is spiritually destructive. It leads participants away from the Savior’s teachings of love and service and toward the selfishness of the adversary. It undermines the virtues of work and thrift and the desire to give honest effort in all we do.

Those who participate in gambling soon discover the deception in the idea that they can give little or nothing and receive something of value in return. They find that they give up large amounts of money, their own honor, and the respect of family members and friends. Deceived and addicted, they often gamble with funds they should use for other purposes, such as meeting the basic needs of their families. Gamblers sometimes become so enslaved and so desperate to pay gambling debts that they turn to stealing, giving up their own good name.

They absolutely have been the main force behind the timing of this push. It was the main topic of General Conference a few weeks ago and one of the most eyebrow-raising articulations of official church policy.

Given the way that the church has explicitly encouraged state legislators to shoot down recent laws it's not surprising to think they'd be pushing for this.

Also "Utah is one of only two states where gambling is also prohibited under the state constitution"

Ehh I wouldn't try to appeal too much to what the LDS church thinks about this. They require members to give 10% of their annual income to the church, while already having close to $300 billion in the bank.

Everyone knows the state of Utah is largely run by the church.

If Kalshi is not a gambling operation then it is an unregulated futures market, which is still illegal. There are perverse incentives in futures markets too, which is why they are regulated.

Also speculators serve an important purpose: hedging strategies require speculators on the other side. It is not just a "certain clientele," there are people who run profitable businesses on speculation (it amounts to collecting insurance premiums from people who want hedges).

If the differentiating factor is just who you’re betting against, how are Kalshi et al any different from online poker? It’s still gambling, the house just takes a rake

Besides the brokerage being regulated, stock markets are regulated.

Robinhood is regulated under the SEC and other regulatory bodies and keeps "paper trails" of the trades.

It's really the worst of both combined. There is ample gambling like options and behavior on Kalshi

&&

policy makers, assistants, journalists, and the like are insider trading - and the president of the united states is intentionally market manipulating for profit

51% or more of social media is automated.

Bots Rule Everything Around Me BREAM dollar dollar bill yall.

like, of course the gambling halls drop big money on online marketing

I liked it for political races as an alternative to polls. Was terrible for several other things. 99% of it was really just sports betting, which I can't see being a good thing.

you must be from an alternate timeline

What in the revisionist history? Polymarket has been getting shit on here since it debuted.