| ▲ | derektank 2 hours ago |
| I don’t see the clear difference between something like Kalshi and, say, Robinhood. I do see a clear difference between Kalshi and casinos or sports gambling sites like Fan Duel; in the latter, your counterparty is the institution itself. This creates a lot of perverse incentives on the part of sports gambling sites to maintain their edge, such as banning bettors that are too good at playing the odds. Kalshi, on the other hand, is never your counterparty in any transaction. Now, Robinhood is a brokerage, regulated by FINRA, and has been fined for misbehavior in the past. So I am more than willing to believe that there is daylight here that I’m not seeing. But anything that lets you speculate attracts a certain clientele, and I think the most important distinction is whether or not the platform itself is an interested party. |
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| ▲ | betterunix2 37 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| If Kalshi is not a gambling operation then it is an unregulated futures market, which is still illegal. There are perverse incentives in futures markets too, which is why they are regulated. Also speculators serve an important purpose: hedging strategies require speculators on the other side. It is not just a "certain clientele," there are people who run profitable businesses on speculation (it amounts to collecting insurance premiums from people who want hedges). |
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| ▲ | whimsicalism 29 minutes ago | parent [-] | | You're posting this all over the site but Kalshi is very clearly a licensed futures market regulated by the CFTC | | |
| ▲ | betterunix2 27 minutes ago | parent [-] | | How is that at all clear? They are likely subject to CFTC regulations but there are a lot of questions about whether or not they are in compliance. | | |
| ▲ | whimsicalism 24 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Describing an organization with a license from the CFTC as an "unregulated futures market" is just flat wrong, I'm not really sure why you're motte-baileying here. | | |
| ▲ | betterunix2 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | They offer contracts that are almost certainly outside the scope of regulation, an appeals court has already ruled that some of their contracts are indeed subject to state laws and not CFTC regulation, and they are continuing to push the envelope. How is it wrong to call them an unregulated market under the circumstances? | | |
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| ▲ | mcmcmc 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If the differentiating factor is just who you’re betting against, how are Kalshi et al any different from online poker? It’s still gambling, the house just takes a rake |
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| ▲ | omilu an hour ago | parent [-] | | Because you can easily collude and cheat at poker so it needs to be heavily regulated or outright illegal to prevent theft. You can't really cheat at prediction markets, unless you have insider information which they can litigate after the fact. | | |
| ▲ | mcmcmc an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Surely you’re being facetious, insider trading is obviously a huge problem that is rarely enforced and we’ve already seen instances of people actively influencing events or using false information to fake the result of a bet | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > You can't really cheat at prediction markets Lots of folks gripe about how Kalshi adjudicates contracts. |
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| ▲ | mahboi 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Besides the brokerage being regulated, stock markets are regulated. |
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| ▲ | calvinmorrison 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | basically, does the government have its thumb on the scale makes it legal. Gambling is so bad and illegal, except when the pennsylvania lottery does it. Alcohol, bad and illegal, except when the state monopoly sells it. | | |
| ▲ | toyg 38 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That's such a poor argument. Illegal building is bad because it's illegal; illegal gambling is bad because it's illegal. This is just how laws work. Heck, in the US even homicide is bad because it's illegal, when you consider that there is a legal version of it. | |
| ▲ | kube-system an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There are very good reasons that gambling and financial markets are regulated. | |
| ▲ | mahboi 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yep. Hope they kill Kalshi. | |
| ▲ | walthamstow 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Devices that broadcast wifi illegal except when the FCC says so. Damn government with their thumb on the scales. |
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| ▲ | Projectiboga an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Robinhood is regulated under the SEC and other regulatory bodies and keeps "paper trails" of the trades. |
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| ▲ | verdverm an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It's really the worst of both combined. There is ample gambling like options and behavior on Kalshi && policy makers, assistants, journalists, and the like are insider trading - and the president of the united states is intentionally market manipulating for profit |
